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Market Briefing: Markets Tread Water After Fed Minutes

Major asset classes are moving sideways and implied volatility in the currency markets is falling after a record of the Federal Reserve’s July meeting largely confirmed prevailing investor views. Oil and commodity prices are climbing after Chinese authorities signalled an acceleration in stimulus efforts. Bloomberg quoted state media sources as saying local governments had been authorized to sell an additional $226 billion in bonds, helping to support spending and avoid a “fiscal cliff”. President Xi Jinping said authorities would try to balance growth with disease-control policies, continuing the process of opening the economy up. The expressions of support come on...

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Market Wire: Dovish Fed Minutes Push Dollar and Yields Lower

The Federal Reserve rate-setting committee began considering an eventual deceleration in the pace of monetary tightening at its July meeting, aligning with comments made by Chair Jerome Powell during the post-decision press conference. A record of the discussion showed no concerns raised about the loosening in financial conditions that occurred ahead of the meeting, and appears to ratify the market reaction that unfolded when Mr. Powell said “it likely will become appropriate to slow the pace of increases”. Participants remained determined to bring inflation down to target, noting that price growth “remained unacceptably high”, with several expressing reservations about the...

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Market Wire: Dollar Stable on Strong Core Retail Sales Numbers

US retail spending flatlined last month, but underlying consumer demand remained strong, keeping monetary tightening expectations aloft. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants were roughly unchanged on a month-over-month in July, up 10.3 percent over a year prior. Markets were expecting a 0.1 percent headline gain. Gas station sales fell -1.8 percent month-over-month as global energy prices tumbled. Motor vehicle and parts dealers posted a -1.6 percent loss. Receipts at food services operations rose 0.1 percent, and grocery store sales were up 0.2 percent, but rising food...

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Market Briefing: Markets Fade Ahead of Potentially-Sobering Fed Minutes

Investors are bracing for hawkish language when the Federal Reserve releases minutes from its recent policy meeting this afternoon. Equity futures are under pressure, ten-year Treasury yields are ticking higher, and the dollar is inching forward against most of its major rivals. Inflation in the United Kingdom hit 10.1 percent in July, up from a year-over-year pace of 9.4 percent in June as surging food and energy prices cut living standards. Data released by the Office for National Statistics this morning showed the fastest increase in headline consumer prices in more than four decades, paired with a much hotter-than-expected rise...

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Market Briefing: Dollar Keeps Rising. We Don’t Know Why.

The dollar is climbing for a second day, but coherent explanations for the move are in short supply. One could argue that investors are clinging to safe havens as the prospect of a slowdown in the world’s second-largest economy darkens the outlook, but China’s peculiar growth model means it subtracts net demand from the rest of the world, and commodity-linked and growth-sensitive currencies appear to be holding ground so far. Europe is relatively quiet. The pound exhibited no discernible reaction earlier this morning on signs of cooling in the British labour market, and the euro remains under pressure on news...

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