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Market Briefing: Risk Appetite Stabilizes After Fed Decision, Dollar Remains Weak

All is not calm and all is not bright in financial markets this morning, but price action remains surprisingly restrained after yesterday’s Federal Reserve decision. Equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, yet interest rates are stable, the dollar is soft, and most major currencies are trading within ranges established earlier in the week. The Fed tried to deliver an overtly-hawkish message: An updated dot plot showed the median member of the Federal Open Market Committee thinks interest rates will climb above 5.1 percent next year – well above market levels – and seven of nineteen said they...

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Market Wire: Federal Reserve Hikes 50 Basis Points, Remains Steadfastly Hawkish

The Federal Reserve’s rate-setting committee raised benchmark rates by 50 basis points and lifted rate forecasts by more than expected – suggesting that officials are waiting for sustained and conclusive evidence of a downturn in inflation before executing the policy “pivot” markets have been hoping for. At the conclusion of its last two-day meeting in 2022, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 4.25-to-4.50 percent, with no dissents in favour of a smaller or larger move. In the official statement setting out the decision, policymakers avoided telegraphing a slower...

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Market Briefing: Optimistic markets prepare for Fed decision

Tis’ the season to be jolly. Traders are in an ebullient mood after yesterday’s data showed consumer prices rising in November at the slowest 12-month pace since December 2021. Although equity markets have largely retraced their steps, ten-year Treasury yields are holding below the 3.5-percent threshold, the dollar is weaker, and risk appetite looks robust across the currency markets. It might seem like investors are decking the halls with boughs of folly, but there are good reasons to think inflation is stabilizing at lower levels. Cheaper energy prices are gradually reducing upward pressure on headline indices, and seem unlikely to...

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Market Wire: Markets surge as Santa Claus comes to town

US consumer prices climbed by less than expected in November, giving the Federal Reserve some breathing room as it prepares to signal a deceleration in the pace of rate increases. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 7.1 percent in November from the same period last year, up 0.1 percent on a month-over-month basis. Economists polled by major data providers ahead of the release projected an 7.3 percent annual gain and a 0.3 percent increase relative to October. A 1.6 percent month-over-month tumble in energy prices – led by...

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Market Briefing: Currency markets go quiet ahead of critical inflation data

Trading activity is muted across the foreign exchange markets this morning as participants await the latest inflation numbers and prepare for tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. The dollar and Treasury yields are slightly weaker, while commodity-complex currencies are inching higher. The pound is holding its ground and the implied likelihood of a half-percentage-point hike at Thursday’s Bank of England meeting is effectively unchanged after the latest numbers showed labour markets remaining tight in the face of a broader economic slowdown. According to the Office for National Statistics, a better-than-forecast 107,000 jobs were created in November, while the labour force survey showed...

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