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24 Apr 2023

Chartbook: April 24

Exhibit 1 Currency markets are still unwinding last year’s excesses. Change in exchange rate relative to January 02, 2022, % Exhibit 2 Japanese inflation rates remain elevated, but are heading for a rollover. Annual change in core inflation rate, % Exhibit 3 Rate expectations remain deeply divergent. Implied change in policy rate relative to April 24, 2023, % Exhibit 4 The economy’s momentum hasn’t slowed. Subcomponent contributions to forecasted growth aggregate, % Exhibit 5 Wage growth is still running hot. 3-month average of median wage growth, % Exhibit 6 But credit growth is slowing. Deposits, Consumer Loans, Commercial and Industrial...

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23 Apr 2023

Service sector resilience

• Diverging trends. Business surveys show that manufacturing is slowing, but services are still strong. This suggests policy still isn’t tight enough.• BoJ surprise? This Friday’s BoJ meeting is the first for new Governor Ueda. Tweaks can’t be ruled out. A ‘surprise’ would ripple through FX markets.• AUD sluggish. Weaker global manufacturing momentum weighed on metals prices and the AUD. AU CPI inflation released on Wednesday. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. European and US equities posted some modest gains (S&P500 +0.1%, Eurostoxx50 +0.5%) and bond yields rebounded. The US 2-year bond yield rose ~8bps to 4.18%, and the 10-year ticked...

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20 Apr 2023

Growth concerns return

• Growth jitters. A run of weaker than expected data and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bankers has generated renewed growth worries.• Shaky sentiment. Negative growth signals dampened risk appetite. US equities, bond yields, oil, and metals prices a bit lower overnight.• AUD lifts. Despite the backdrop AUD lifted a little. We doubt the move can be sustained. Looking ahead, May tends to be a negative month for the AUD. Growth concerns are back in focus following a string of weaker than anticipated data, cautious tone about the outlook in some corporate earnings results, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bank officials....

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19 Apr 2023

Global inflation trends

• Hot UK CPI. Higher than expected UK CPI boosted bond yields overnight. Markets are now factoring in a few more BoE rate hikes this year.• NZ inflation slows. NZ CPI came in below expectations. NZD dipped and AUD/NZD moved higher as markets question the RBNZ rate outlook.• AUD holding. AUD hovering just above $0.67. RBA review to be released today. US Fed speakers are also on the calendar over the next 24hrs. The rebound in global bond yields has continued, with Europe leading the way. Another hotter than expected UK CPI print, the only major economic data of note...

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19 Apr 2023

Hot UK Inflation Lifts Global Yields, Leaves Currencies Largely Unmoved

Famous last words perhaps, but today is shaping up to be a quiet one in currency markets. Treasury yields and the trade-weighted dollar are inching higher after a hotter-than-expected British inflation print put upward pressure on global interest rates and pushed equity and commodity futures into a defensive posture – but trading ranges remain unspectacular relative to recent months. The British pound jumped this morning after the latest inflation numbers topped expectations, making a rate increase at the next Bank of England meeting far more likely. According to data released by the Office for National Statistics, consumer prices climbed 10.1 percent in...

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