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USD

03 Jul 2025

US Jobs Report Crushes Expectations, Triggering Dollar Rally

The US job creation engine accelerated last month, weakening market expectations for at least two rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the back half of the year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 147,000 jobs were added in June – representing a solid overshoot relative to the 110,000-position consensus forecast – and the unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked down to 4.1 percent, from 4.2 percent in the prior month. Job growth in the previous month was revised higher to 144,000, bringing the three-month average up to 150,000. Caveats were present – 73,000 jobs were added...

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01 Jul 2025

USD remains on the back foot

• Consolidation. Modest moves across most markets. USD index remains heavy with EUR pushing higher. AUD hovering near top of its range.• Macro pulse. US manufacturing ISM shows momentum still sluggish. US jobs report the main data focal point later this week.• AU data. Retail sales & building approvals released today. After a subdued start to the year will retail spending turn the corner? Global Trends Modest moves across markets at the start of the new month. US equities slipped back a touch from record highs (S&P500 -0.1%), US bond yields nudged up after trending lower the past few weeks,...

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30 Jun 2025

US dollar blues

• Pressure points. US equities hit another record high, while the USD remains under pressure. AUD has risen to the top of its multi-month range.• USD trends. USD index ~10.5% below where it started the year. Worst performance over the first half of a year since the early-70s.• Macro events. Eurozone CPI & ECB conference in focus tonight. Various US jobs indicators due over next few days. US ISM also released tonight. Global Trends Risk sentiment ended the month, and volatile quarter, on positive footing with the US S&P500 (+0.5%) hitting a fresh record high and cyclical currencies like the...

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29 Jun 2025

US jobs in focus

• Holding on. Pockets of volatility on Friday but on net US equities & bond yields rose. EUR continues to climb. AUD drifted a little lower.• US macro. Consumer spending fell. Some signs of tariff impacts on US inflation. Has the uncertainty flowed through to the US jobs market?• Event Radar. China PMIs today. Annual ECB conference & EZ inflation due this week. US jobs report scheduled (Thurs night AEST) ahead of US holiday. Global Trends Markets were whipsawed a little during Friday’s trade by a couple of tariff related developments and US economic releases. Risk sentiment temporarily soured a...

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27 Jun 2025

Markets Turn Cautious As US Consumer Spending Engine Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure came in slightly hotter than expected in May—lending support to the central bank’s cautious approach—but personal spending levels missed forecasts, pointing to a more profound slowdown ahead. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent from the prior month, topping market forecasts for a 0.1-percent increase. On a year-over-year basis, core price growth sped up to 2.7 percent, also exceeding economist estimates for a 2.6 percent advance, and the prior month’s increase was revised up to 2.5 percent. The overall personal consumption...

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