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USD

10 Apr 2025

Made in America

• Risk wobbles. Concerns about a US-China trade war remain. US equities slipped back & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD pushed higher.• Tariff impacts. US’ effective tariff rate is still very high. Downside US growth risks remain. This & reduced investor confidence are USD negatives.• Volatility. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated over the period ahead. There’s still a lot of water to go under the tariff bridge. Global Trends Financial markets remain lively with the chopping and changing in US trade policy still firmly in the driver’s seat. Yesterday’s positive jolt from the announced ‘pause’ in...

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10 Apr 2025

Relief Rally Runs Out of Steam Despite Tame US Inflation Data

Stock-index futures are edging lower and the dollar is weakening once more as the initial optimism sparked by yesterday’s tariff reversal yields to a more measured assessment of the risks still facing the US and world economies. Equity futures are setting up for a circa-1.5-percent loss at the North American open, ten-year Treasury yields are stuck near the 4.3 percent mark, and the greenback is heading toward a third day of losses against its major counterparts. The safe-haven Japanese yen is in the ascendant, and the euro is climbing after European Union officials announced plans to postpone retaliatory measures against...

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09 Apr 2025

Volatility Soars As Global Trade War Escalates

Volatility continues to sweep across asset classes after the Trump administration’s “reciprocal” and retaliatory tariffs took effect last night, ratcheting American import taxes up to levels last seen in the immediate aftermath of the Civil War. The freezing of trade flows between the US and China bears a stark resemblance to the breakdown in relations between the West and the Soviet Union that led to the Cold War. US tariffs on imports from China have soared: with the average tariff rate sitting close to 20 percent ahead of Trump’s inauguration, and 10 percent added in February, another 10 percent in...

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08 Apr 2025

Wild market swings continue

• Volatility. Tariff news continues to generate volatility. US equities unwound early gains to end the day lower. AUD & NZD followed. CNH also weaker.• Tariff news. While there were signals about deals for some nations, goods from China are set to be hit with another tariff. This dampened sentiment.• Macro events. RBNZ expected to cut interest rates again today. Tariff developments will continue to drive markets for a while. Global Trends Volatility in markets has continued with tariff-related headlines still the driving force. The initial positive sentiment in the US session following the rebound in Asian and European equities...

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08 Apr 2025

Markets Stabilise As Tariff Negotiation Hopes Rise

The dust is settling after a tumultuous Monday in financial markets. North American equity markets are setting up for a modestly-positive open, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are pushing above the 4.20-percent mark, and the dollar is edging lower against all of its major trade-sensitive counterparts. To summarise yesterday’s* insanity: the S&P 500 jumped more than 8 percent on an erroneous headline suggesting that tariffs would be paused for ninety days, then plunged again when this was rebuffed by the White House, only to rise again as investors hedged against the possibility that another, more accurate version of the same headline...

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