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The Morning After the Night Before

After a brutal week, markets are in hangover mode, laying on the sofa, drinking as much liquidity as they can, and remaining ready to puke at any time. Risk appetites are reviving and major equity indices are poised to extend gains after Credit Suisse said it would stabilize its balance sheet with 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank, and a group of big US banks agreed to inject $30 billion into First Republic Bank. Treasury yields are seeing bifurcated moves, with the two year rising as the ten-year falls, and the dollar is weakening. Oil and other commodities...

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Markets Rebound on Easing Contagion Fears

Measures of implied volatility are beginning to subside after the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank triggered a week-long spasm in financial markets and led to a wholesale repricing in global interest rates. European bank shares are rallying, North American equity indices are setting up for a stable open, Treasury yields are up, and the dollar is down. Oil is climbing off the 15-month lows reached during yesterday’s session Credit Suisse shares gained more than 20 percent at the open this morningafter it offered to repurchase debt with up to 50 billion francs borrowed from the Swiss National Bank. The move is expected to...

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Currency Volatility Snaps Higher on Suisse Miss

World markets are coming under renewed selling pressure this morningas signs of a banking contagion spread to Europe. Equity futures are setting up for drastic losses at the open, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is pushing higher against its G10 rivals. Oil prices are tumbling, with the West Texas Intermediate benchmark slipping below $70 for the first time since September 2021.  A fragile sense of calm was broken when shares in Credit Suisse Group AG plunged and credit default swap prices shot up after it said “material weaknesses” had been found in its reporting. Selling worsened when the head...

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Past the worst?

• Risk sentiment improves. Equites and bond yields bounced back overnight, but the moves in FX have been more contained.• US inflation. Core inflation remains stubbornly high. Services prices remain the key driver. This points to further Fed rate hikes and a USD rebound.• AUD data flow. China data is released today. Tomorrow, the Australian labour force report is due. Positive data may give the AUD a short-term boost. After a few turbulent days the tone across markets was more positive overnight, though reports late in the session that a Russian fighter jet collided with a US drone did see...

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