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USD

It’s quiet. Too quiet.

Currency markets are broadly lacking in conviction this morning, with the British pound the only significant mover among the majors, and the dollar inching lower against its rivals in generally-directionless trading.  Equity markets and commodity prices are unimpressed after the People’s Bank of China and the National Financial Regulatory Administration told lenders to roll over outstanding loans to property developers – a step that might prevent a string of defaults, but which won’t do much to improve household confidence. After what might have been the biggest property bubble in history, many cities are overbuilt, local governments and millions of households are carrying...

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China has a different inflation problem

• Mixed markets. US yields & the USD Index lower. But AUD underperforms as concerns about China’s economic trajectory remain in place.• China deflation risks. China CPI/PPI inflation underwhelmed, another sign the post-COVID recovery is faltering. Measures are needed to reinvigorate demand.• US inflation. US CPI (released Weds night AEST) is a focal point. Base-effects point to a further step down in inflation. This could exert more pressure on the USD. A relatively quiet start to the new week across markets. Overnight, European and US equities posted modest gains (S&P500 +0.2%), oil prices gave back some ground (WTI crude -0.9%),...

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Price action slows ahead of US inflation and Canadian policy decision

Markets seem to be tiptoeing into a data-light week with a sense of trepidation.Equity futures are weaker, Treasury yields are ticking lower, and benchmark dollar indices are pushing higher ahead of the opening bell, suggesting that risk appetites remain relatively constrained after Friday’s big moves. The euro, pound, and Canadian dollar are all sitting in defensive positions, with technical indicators pointing to rangebound price action ahead. Inflation flat-lined in China last month, and a sharp decline in producer prices suggested that the world’s biggest manufacturer is beginning to export deflation. Headline consumer prices were unchanged in June relative to a year earlier, and...

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Payrolls weigh on the USD

• US payrolls. Non-farm payrolls came in lower than expected. But other detail in the report shows that the US labour market is still tight.• Softer USD. The USD weakened. US CPI in focus this week. Base-effects point to a further step down in inflation. This could exert more pressure on the USD.• AUD rebound. AUD has bounced back. In addition to the US CPI, RBA Governor Lowe speaks on Wednesday. We think the AUD may recover more ground. A tumultuous week for markets was brought to a close by the release of the US labour market report on Friday....

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US yields remain aloft ahead of non-farm payrolls report

The dollar is rangebound and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds after suffering steep losses in yesterday’s session as strong economic data sent US yields rocketing to a 16-year high. The ADP Research Institute kicked things off by saying US companies added 497,000 jobs in June, almost twice the consensus forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics followed up with data showing a modest increase in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, but countered that with a reduction in continuing claims. A later report said job openings fell to 9.82 million at the end of May, down from an upwardly...

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