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USD

12 Apr 2023

US Inflation: something for everyone

• US CPI. Headline inflation slowed a bit more than expected, but core inflation remains high. The conflicting signals generated intra-day volatility.• Softer USD. The USD lost some ground. But will it last? Sticky US core inflation points to another Fed rate hike. Rate cut pricing for later this year looks misplaced.• AUD mixed. AUD focus today will be on the Australian labour market data. Reopened borders mean the hurdle to keep unemployment steady has risen. The latest read on US CPI inflation was the focus overnight. There was something for everyone in the data, and this generated divergence across...

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11 Apr 2023

US CPI in focus

• Calm markets. Focus is on tonight’s US CPI. Headline inflation should mechanically slow, but core inflation could remain high. This can support the case for further tightening by the US Fed.• AUD mixed. AUD slightly higher against the USD, but remains under pressure against EUR and GBP as monetary policy outlooks diverge.• NZD underperformer. Despite last week’s larger RBNZ rate hike, NZD has fallen back. Markets are starting to factor in a RBNZ ‘policy mistake’. Markets were relatively calm overnight, with tonight’s US CPI in focus (10:30pm AEST). The US S&P500 ended the day flat, with the tech-focused NASDAQ...

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10 Apr 2023

USD bouncing back

• Solid US labour report. The March US labour market data showed that while momentum is slowing, conditions are still tight. US unemployment is 3.5%.• USD rebound. The US data bolstered expectations the Fed will hike rates again in May. This has boosted the USD. US CPI inflation released this week.• AUD lower. The shift in relative interest rate expectations in favour of the US has weighed on the AUD. Australian labour market data due on Thursday. The US economic data continued to roll in over the Easter Holidays. On Friday the important US labour market report was released. While...

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05 Apr 2023

Recession worries

• Recession worries. Softer US labour and services data has fanned recession fears. Cyclical assets have weakened. US bond yields have fallen.• Firmer USD. The USD has edged up with safe-haven flows counteracting the step down in rate expectations. NZD unwound yesterday’s spike generated by the larger RBNZ rate hike.• AUD/NZD lower. AUD/NZD hit a fresh 2023 low after the RBNZ announcement. We expect AUD/NZD to rebound over the medium-term. The RBNZ’s actions should lead to a meaningful NZ downturn. Markets have remained on the defensive overnight as US recession risks continue to build. US equities slipped back. The S&P500...

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04 Apr 2023

Rate expectations JOLTED

• Shaky sentiment. US equities and industrial metals eased back. The USD weakened, tracking the fall in US yields. EUR higher, USD/JPY lower.• US labour market turning. US JOLTS report weaker than expected. Tighter conditions are starting to work. But there is still a long way to go.• AUD underperformer. RBA pauses and waters down its guidance. RBNZ expected to hike by 25bps today, but could it also tweak its language? A more cautious tone across markets with US equities giving back some ground (S&P500 -0.6%), industrial metals easing (copper dipped ~0.9%), and US bond yields falling. US 2yr yields...

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