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Heard it all before

• Jackson Hole. Chair Powell didn’t deviate much from the script. Fed prepared to tighten further if needed, & will hold rates at a “restrictive level” for some time.• Market swings. A bit of volatility in markets, but with a ‘higher for longer’ view priced in equities reversed course. This gave the AUD a bit of support.• Event risks. AU retail sales (today), the monthly CPI (Weds), China PMIs (Thurs), & US jobs report (Fri) are in focus this week. Markets endured a burst of volatility on Friday as US Fed Chair Powell delivered his much-anticipated Jackson Hole speech. In...

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Powell avoids out-hawking markets, puts Fed on data-dependent footing

Speaking at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium this morning, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell delivered a slightly less hawkish message than markets had feared, saying that the central bank would “proceed carefully as we decide whether to tighten further or, instead, to hold the policy rate constant and await further data”. In a speech that recycled a lot of the language used in last year’s appearance, Powell said “Although inflation has moved down from its peak — a welcome development — it remains too high,” and noted “Additional evidence of persistently above-trend growth could put further progress on inflation...

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Trading grinds to a halt as central bankers go off to summer camp

Financial markets are in stasis this morning ahead of a series of monetary policy speeches at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. Treasury yields are up slightly and equity futures are licking their wounds after yesterday’s buy-on-rumour, sell-on-news dynamic in Nvidia shares saw the major indexes lose altitude. Trade-weighted measures of the dollar are holding near three-month highs as market participants bet Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell will deliver a relatively-hawkish “higher for longer” message, followed by a more dovishly-cautious one from the European Central Bank’s Christine Lagarde. Both the euro and pound are oscillating around key technical levels, and modest...

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Artificial intelligence boosts US dollar

Equity futures are kicking upward and the dollar is rising in the run-up to the North American open after Nvidia reported stronger-than-expected second quarter earnings and issued a remarkably-positive sales forecast. With the tech-heavy Nasdaq and the S&P 500 widening the US performance differential relative to global markets, investor demand for the greenback is intensifying – but we note that this could prove dangerous in the months ahead if the sector fails to deliver on its promise. As the corporate raider Carl Icahn once put it, “Some people get rich studying artificial intelligence. Me, I make money studying natural stupidity”....

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Dollar recovers on rest-of-world weakness

Investor demand for US assets continues to grow at an untrammelled pace this morning as signs of softness emerge in other areas of the global economy. Ten-year Treasury yields are down roughly six basis points to 4.26 percent, but benchmark rates are declining much more rapidly in the UK and euro area after a series of purchasing manager surveys pointed to wider weakness and diminished the case for further monetary tightening. The dollar is stronger against all of its major rivals – with the Japanese yen marking the lone exception. US equity futures are higher ahead of an earnings release...

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