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USD

25 Apr 2023

Growth & banking concerns return

• Negative vibes. Growth concerns and renewed banking sector worries weighed on risk sentiment. Equities, bond yields, and commodities lower.• AUD under pressure. The backdrop has supported the USD and JPY, and helped push AUD/USD down to within 1% of its 2023 low.• CPI in focus. Australia Q1 CPI released today. Annual inflation predicted to slow. This is the last major local release ahead of the 2 May RBA meeting. Risk sentiment soured overnight as growth concerns and renewed banking sector nerves weighed on investors’ minds. Banking stocks were dragged lower, firstly in Europe by some disappointing results, and then...

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25 Apr 2023

Dollar Advances Amid Renewed Banking Worries

Renewed concerns over the health of the global banking sector are driving investors toward safe havens this morning, lifting the dollar against its major counterparts. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker open, Treasury yields are down, and currencies like the Canadian and Australian dollars are underperforming relative to the Japanese yen and Swiss franc. Financial sector stocks began to weaken last night after First Republic Bank said it had lost more than $100 billion in deposits during the first quarter, forcing it to cut staff and reduce lending activity. Selling continued in the European session when UBS and...

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24 Apr 2023

Chartbook: April 24

Exhibit 1 Currency markets are still unwinding last year’s excesses. Change in exchange rate relative to January 02, 2022, % Exhibit 2 Japanese inflation rates remain elevated, but are heading for a rollover. Annual change in core inflation rate, % Exhibit 3 Rate expectations remain deeply divergent. Implied change in policy rate relative to April 24, 2023, % Exhibit 4 The economy’s momentum hasn’t slowed. Subcomponent contributions to forecasted growth aggregate, % Exhibit 5 Wage growth is still running hot. 3-month average of median wage growth, % Exhibit 6 But credit growth is slowing. Deposits, Consumer Loans, Commercial and Industrial...

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23 Apr 2023

Service sector resilience

• Diverging trends. Business surveys show that manufacturing is slowing, but services are still strong. This suggests policy still isn’t tight enough.• BoJ surprise? This Friday’s BoJ meeting is the first for new Governor Ueda. Tweaks can’t be ruled out. A ‘surprise’ would ripple through FX markets.• AUD sluggish. Weaker global manufacturing momentum weighed on metals prices and the AUD. AU CPI inflation released on Wednesday. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. European and US equities posted some modest gains (S&P500 +0.1%, Eurostoxx50 +0.5%) and bond yields rebounded. The US 2-year bond yield rose ~8bps to 4.18%, and the 10-year ticked...

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20 Apr 2023

Growth concerns return

• Growth jitters. A run of weaker than expected data and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bankers has generated renewed growth worries.• Shaky sentiment. Negative growth signals dampened risk appetite. US equities, bond yields, oil, and metals prices a bit lower overnight.• AUD lifts. Despite the backdrop AUD lifted a little. We doubt the move can be sustained. Looking ahead, May tends to be a negative month for the AUD. Growth concerns are back in focus following a string of weaker than anticipated data, cautious tone about the outlook in some corporate earnings results, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bank officials....

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