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USD

10 May 2023

US inflation slows, providing lift to global asset prices

With the Ukraine energy shock falling out of year-over-year calculations and goods price growth continuing its descent, US consumer inflation slowed slightly more than expected last month. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 4.9 percent in April from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly below the 5.0 percent consensus estimate among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release. Energy costs climbed 0.6 percent month-over-month, while the food index remained unchanged. New vehicles fell by -0.2 percent more...

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09 May 2023

US CPI in focus

• Cautious tone. US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global slowdown, & tonight’s US CPI inflation data are on investors minds.• US CPI. Markets now assuming no further Fed rate hikes & are factoring in over two cuts by year-end. Another high core inflation print could see rate cut bets pared back, supporting the USD.• Budget relief. Targeted measures aimed at low income households should provide some cost of living relief. But will it lead to more inflation down the track? Markets traded a bit more cautiously overnight with US debt ceiling concerns, more signs of a global...

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09 May 2023

Markets retreat as slowdown fears become more entrenched

Price action in financial markets is restrained and the dollar is inching higher against its risk-sensitive counterparts as investors monitor debt ceiling negotiations and take positions ahead of tomorrow’s inflation data. Yields are lower and equities are on the defensive after Chinese authorities said export shipments to the rest of the world shrank 6.4 percent in April, providing more evidence of a deepening global economic slowdown. The first Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey released in the aftermath of Silicon Valley Bank’s collapse showed lending conditions continuing to tighten – but not at the pace economists had feared. 45 percent of banks raised...

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08 May 2023

AUD holding firm

• Calmer markets. US equities flat overnight, while oil & base metals edged a bit higher. US bond yields rose, with the AUD hovering just under ~$0.68• No credit crunch. Fed’s Senior Loan Officer Survey didn’t signal an imminent credit crunch. Rather, conditions are tightening inline with higher rates.• AUD events. Consumer sentiment, Q1 retail sales volumes, China trade data, & the Federal Budget released today. US CPI is out tomorrow night. A relatively quiet and uneventful start to the new week. Following the strong rise on Friday, US equities were flat overnight. By contrast, energy prices added to their...

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08 May 2023

Chartbook: May 8

Exhibit 1 Speculators are doubling down on long-euro bets. Net Long (+) or Short (-) US Dollar Futures Position Held by Large Speculators, Billions US Dollars, As at May 2, 2023 Exhibit 2 Economic surprise indices are diverging again. Citigroup Economic Surprise Indices, % Exhibit 3 Regional banks are still under pressure. KBW Bank Index Exhibit 4 Credit creation is slowing. Net Percentage of Domestic Banks Tightening Standards for Commercial and Industrial Loans to Small, and Large and Middle-Market Firms Exhibit 5 But loan volumes haven’t crashed. 3-Month Net Change in Loans, All Commercial Banks, Billions USD Exhibit 6 And...

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