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USD

18 Sep 2023

Risk appetite falls into heavy week

Currency traders are squaring their positions this morning ahead of a series of potentially market-moving data releases and policy decisions in the coming days. The dollar is inching lower, two-year yields are holding above the 5-percent threshold, and equity futures are setting up for a softer session. The subdued open comes after a week in which Treasury yields snapped higher, stocks fell, and the greenback broke an extended winning streak. With August core consumer prices, producer prices, and retail sales all coming in hot, investors began to lose hope in a rapid pivot toward looser monetary policy from the Federal...

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17 Sep 2023

Central banks in the spotlight

• Mixed markets. US equities fell back with higher bond yields & jitters about the autoworkers strike weighing on sentiment. USD & AUD consolidated.• China data. The China activity data was generally better than expected. This supports our thinking that growth momentum could be bottoming out.• Event calendar. US Fed (Thurs morning AEST), BoE (Thurs AEST), & BoJ (Fri AEST) decisions in the spotlight. European/US PMIs (Fri) also in focus. Mixed fortunes across asset classes and regions on Friday. In contrast to the lift by most major Asian and European stock markets, US equities fell back, led by the tech-sector...

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15 Sep 2023

Markets steady ahead of major central bank meetings

Hopes for a “soft landing” in the US economy are still intact after yesterday’s data showed unemployment claims falling and “control group” retail sales continuing to rise – suggesting that consumer demand remains remarkably strong. The dollar is holding steady, Treasury yields are moving higher. Equity futures are down as investors worry about the impact of strikes at the Big Three automakers Chinese consumer spending and factory activity levels showed improvement in August, and unemployment fell, suggesting that the economy’s downturn is bottoming out. Data released by the National Bureau of Statistics last night showed retail sales rising 4.6 percent...

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14 Sep 2023

AUD: Always darkest before the dawn

The AUD is battered and bruised. A combination of factors such as better-than-anticipated US data and a stronger USD, economic struggles in China and a weaker CNH, a lower JPY, some subpar local economic prints, and shaky risk sentiment on the back of the jump up in bond yields recently pushed the AUD to 2023 lows. While the extent of the USD strength and AUD weakness has been a bit of a surprise, the direction of travel was not. We repeatedly flagged that the AUD was set to go through a rough patch over Q3 as global inflation lingered and...

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14 Sep 2023

ECB: end of the line

• Positive vibes. Risk markets supported by signals last nights ECB rate hike could be the last, more policy easing in China, & positive US retail sales.• EUR & GBP softer. The shift in relative yield spreads has weighed on EUR & GBP. AUD has held its ground, with AUD/EUR & AUD/GBP rising.• Data pulse. Also helping the AUD was a positive local employment report. Today, the market focus will be on the August China activity data. It has been a busy 24hrs with several data releases and policy decisions coming through. On net, the events have supported risk sentiment...

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