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USD

22 Oct 2023

Macro trends vs geopolitical risks

• Negative vibes. Equities lost more ground on Friday. Bond yields also dipped, with oil, gold, & the USD consolidating. Middle East developments remain in focus.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due Wednesday. Quarterly growth in core inflation looks set to step up. A lift could bolster expectations about another RBA rate hike.• Event radar. In addition to AU CPI, RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Tues & Thurs). The BoC & ECB meet, & in the US Q3 GDP & the PCE deflator are due. Markets ended last week on a weaker footing with developments in the Middle East continuing to dampen...

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19 Oct 2023

US Fed still proceeding carefully

• Market divergence. Equities under pressure, oil & gold higher. Long end yields rose, but the US 2yr rate fell as Fed rate hike bets were pared back.• Fed speak. Chair Powell reiterated his ‘cautious’ stance, disappointing recently built up expectations. The USD lost some ground after he spoke.• AUD vol. AUD has traded in a ~1% range. AU jobs data mixed, but conditions still tight. CPI next week. This could make or break the case for another RBA hike. Markets continue to be whipped around with Middle East developments, equity earnings results, and comments by US Fed Chair Powell...

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19 Oct 2023

US yields keep climbing, squeezing currency markets

A renewed surge in US yields is sucking the air out of global financial markets this morning, putting equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies deep in the red. With yields on ten-year Treasuries flirting with the 5 percent threshold for the first time since before the global financial crisis and rate differentials tilted firmly in the dollar’s favour, the greenback is crushing its major rivals, pushing further into overbought territory. The Israel-Hamas conflict continues to pose a threat to markets, but safe-haven flows are generally subsiding as the perceived risk of a regional escalation falls. Momentum is fading in gold and...

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18 Oct 2023

Will Fed Chair Powell change his tune?

• Shaky sentiment. Renewed market wobbles as Middle East tensions were compounded by higher bond yields. Stocks fell & the USD was a little firmer.• AUD vol. AUD whipped around. Gains on the back of the better than expected China data & ‘hawkish’ tone from the RBA unwound overnight.• Upcoming events. AU jobs report released today. US jobless claims are due tonight, but more focus will be on a speech by Fed Chair Powell. Some renewed wobbles in markets overnight with Middle East tensions compounded by another move up in bond yields. Stocks retreated (US S&P500 -1.3%), while oil (WTI...

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18 Oct 2023

Geopolitical tensions worsen, supporting safe havens

Markets are back in risk-off mode after an explosion at a hospital in Gaza shifted the calculus around President Biden’s trip to the Middle East, and raised the risk of a wider conflagration. Oil prices are rising as Iran calls for an embargo against Israel, equity futures are setting up for a softer open, and the dollar is maintaining altitude. Flight-to-safety flows are likely to subside through the session, but Treasury yields are trading near the highest levels since 2006 after yesterday’s hotter-than-expected retail sales number raised the likelihood of more monetary tightening from the Federal Reserve. Cumulative futures-implied odds...

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