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27 Jun 2023

Higher for longer

• Diverging markets. US equities higher, supported by stronger data. Bond yields up with ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from ECB President Lagarde also at play.• FX markets. USD mixed. EUR firmer, while USD/JPY edged up. The world’s key central bankers speak tonight. Could this rattle risk markets?• AUD mixed. AUD unwound its CNY strength inspired gains. AUD/EUR lower. Australia’s monthly CPI indicator is released today. Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with stronger than expected US economic data and ‘hawkish’ messages from central bankers pulling asset classes in different directions. In terms of the data, US new home sales increased to their highest...

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27 Jun 2023

Canadian dollar falls as inflation slows

Canadian inflation decelerated in May, and most underlying price indicators continued to soften, helping push the Bank of Canada back onto a data-dependent footing. Data released by Statistics Canada this morning showed the Consumer Price Index rising 3.4 percent on a year-over-year basis in May, down sharply from the 4,4 percent increase recorded in April, and perfectly in line with consensus expectations. On a month-over-month basis, the change climbed to 0.4 percent – again aligning with market forecasts. Base-year effects saw gasoline prices fall -18.3 percent year-over-year, and the energy sub-index also dropped 12.4 percent. Food prices slowed their climb, up 9...

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26 Jun 2023

Growth worries

• Growth concerns. Weaker German IFO data is another sign the global economy is losing steam. Risk sentiment remains cautious.• Central bankers. The major global central bankers speak tomorrow night. An inflation fighting message could keep the USD firm, in our view.• AUD sluggish. Global backdrop is weighing on the AUD. We see a bit more downside. Locally, CPI indicator & retail sales are due over coming days. Choppy trade to start the new week, but on net risk sentiment remains cautious with growth concerns front of mind. The dramatic weekend events in Russia haven’t generated a meaningful market impact....

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26 Jun 2023

Weekly Update

The direction and magnitude of changes in euro area core producer price indices have tended to lead the core consumer price index by 6 to 9 months. A sharp easing in price pressures looks likely in coming months. Euro area inflation is (probably) headed down. Price indices, % annual change Inflation pressures – as measured using the New York Fed’s “Underlying Inflation Gauge” are trending solidly downward, suggesting that relief could come in the next few months, even if May’s data remains elevated. US inflation could come down even faster. Personal Consumption Expenditures indices and Underlying Inflation Gauges, % annual...

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26 Jun 2023

Veni, Vidi, Retreat-y

This weekend’s baffling march on Moscow by the Wagner Group of mercenaries ended without any appreciable impact on global energy prices or broader financial markets. Both the West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude benchmarks are essentially unchanged, equity futures look incrementally softer, and the VIX “fear index” is holding near Friday’s post-pandemic lows. The yen is modestly stronger after Japanese officials stepped up currency jawboning efforts last night, with Masato Kanda, Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs, warning that exchange rate moves had become “one-sided” and that he wouldn’t “rule out any options” in dealing with it – language that has...

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