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USD

21 Sep 2023

Bond yields keep rising

• Negative sentiment. Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ forecasts have continued to wash through. Long-end bond yields rose again. Equities dipped. USD consolidated.• BoE surprise. Following the weaker UK CPI the BoE surprised by keeping rates on hold. GBP weakened with markets starting to price in a rates ‘peak’.• AUD softer. AUD slipped back over the past 24hrs. AUD/JPY has fallen by ~1%. The BoJ is today. Could it spring a ‘hawkish’ surprise? Risk markets have generally remained on the defensive with long-end bond yields continuing to push higher as the US Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra continues to sink in....

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21 Sep 2023

Of tsunamis and wavelets

Japanese currency jawboning efforts have gained momentum in recent weeks, with the rhetoric reaching renewed levels of intensity over the last few days. Masato Kanda – Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs in the Ministry of Finance – warned authorities “will not rule out any options in dealing with excessive foreign exchange fluctuations,” and said “We’re in very close communication with the US monetary authorities and share the view that excessive volatility is undesirable”. Janet Yellen concurred, implicitly giving the US Treasury Department’s approval by saying “We usually communicate with them about these interventions and generally understand the need...

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21 Sep 2023

Fed out-hawks markets – for now

The Federal Reserve turned remarkably optimistic yesterday. Growth forecasts were doubled for this year and raised by more than a third for 2024, projections for the unemployment rate were cut from 4.5 percent to 4.1 over the next two years, and core inflation was still seen falling below 3 percent within a year.  Markets turned more cautious. Odds on a rate hike at the end of this year inched higher and the number of cuts expected in 2024 dropped from four to three. Treasury yields jumped across most of the curve and equity indices tumbled, pushing the dollar higher against...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed ‘hawkish hold’

• Fed volatility. Fed delivered a ‘hawkish hold’. No policy change, but the projected 2024 easing cycle was pared back. US yields & USD rebounded.• Higher for longer. Markets already look to be factoring in a ‘higher for longer’ view. Interest rate pricing remains above the Fed’s updated dots.• AUD round trip. A bit of volatility, but on net the AUD is little changed. AUD has picked up against GBP ahead of tonight’s BoE meeting. Markets endured some volatility overnight with moves in the lead up to the US Fed meeting reversing after the fact. Heading into the announcement, US...

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20 Sep 2023

Fed maintains near-term hawkish bias, telegraphs slower pivot in 2024

The Federal Reserve’s policy committee left benchmark rates at a 22-year high this afternoon, kept at least one more hike on the table, and signalled it would likely cut three times next year – not the four previously envisioned. At the conclusion of its two-day meeting in Washington, the Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 5.25 and 5.50 percent – the highest since 2001, with no dissents in favour of lifting or cutting the rate. In the statement setting out the decision, policymakers emphasized signs of resilience – pointing...

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