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USD

07 Jul 2023

US yields remain aloft ahead of non-farm payrolls report

The dollar is rangebound and risk-sensitive currencies are licking their wounds after suffering steep losses in yesterday’s session as strong economic data sent US yields rocketing to a 16-year high. The ADP Research Institute kicked things off by saying US companies added 497,000 jobs in June, almost twice the consensus forecast. The Bureau of Labor Statistics followed up with data showing a modest increase in the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits, but countered that with a reduction in continuing claims. A later report said job openings fell to 9.82 million at the end of May, down from an upwardly...

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06 Jul 2023

How high can bond yields go?

• Rates reprice. Stronger than expected US & European data jolted bond yields higher. US 2yr yield spiked to a cyclical high before settling near ~5%.• AUD struggles. AUD remains on the backfoot. Higher rates for longer is a negative for global growth. Policy expectations are also against the AUD.• US payrolls. US non-farm payrolls data released tonight. Another solid report could reinforce the upswing in global interest rate pricing. A case of good economic news is bad news for markets overnight. Robust data jolted markets into re-evaluating how high interest rates may need to go to take the heat...

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06 Jul 2023

Unsurprising Fed minutes push yields higher

Odds on another rate hike at the Federal Reserve’s July meeting were left slightly higher yesterday after a record of June’s discussion showed officials were modestly more hawkish than expected. Staff forecasts pointed to a deceleration in growth and price pressures through the latter half of the year, and there was considerable uncertainty about where the cumulative effects of previous tightening efforts would appear, but “almost all” agreed that rates would need to climb further this year – and some favoured moving more quickly because “momentum in economic activity had been stronger than earlier anticipated and there were few clear signs that...

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05 Jul 2023

US Fed has more work to do

• Fed thinking. Minutes of the last Fed meeting had a ‘hawkish’ tinge. “Almost all” think more tightening is needed. US yields higher & USD firm.• AUD underperforms. AUD weighed down by the lift in US yields, shaky risk sentiment, & weaker CNH. AUD headwinds remain, in our view.• US data. ADP employment, initial jobless claims, JOLTs job openings, & ISM services index released tonight. US non-farm payrolls due tomorrow. With the US back on deck markets were more lively overnight. The minutes of the last US FOMC meeting were in focus, and as we had expected there was a...

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05 Jul 2023

Markets retreat as fireworks fade

Financial markets are suffering a modest post-July 4 hangover, with the big risk haven currencies – the dollar, euro, and yen – outperforming their commodity-linked brethren ahead of the North American open.  Risk appetite is broadly weaker after China’s Caixin services sector purchasing manager index fell by more than expected in May, providing more evidence of a softening in consumer sentiment in the world’s second-largest national economy. The index dropped to 53.9 from 57.1 in April, missing forecasts that were set above the 56 threshold, and aligning with similar results from the official services and manufacturing surveys last week. The yuan...

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