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USD

12 Oct 2023

US CPI market conniption

• US CPI. The data caused a bit of a market conniption with US bond yields & the USD jumping up. This & negative risk sentiment weighed on the AUD.• Over-reaction? We think markets may have over-reacted. Rents boosted services prices, but more broadly there are signs progress is (slowly) being made.• Event radar. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded below current levels ~1% of the time. China trade & CPI, & the MAS meeting are in focus today. US CPI inflation was in focus overnight, and the result, even though it was very close to expectations, caused a...

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12 Oct 2023

Consistently Surprising

This morning’s data is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. With the bulk of the headline move coming from housing and energy, underlying dynamics are still pointing to a gradual moderation in price pressures over the months ahead.  But it did show that inflation prints retain the capacity for surprise, and will help maintain the risk premium – the degree of uncertainty expected around the future path of prices – that is currently built into long-term interest rates. This premium (which forms part of the broader term premium) is notoriously difficult to measure, but probability densities...

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12 Oct 2023

Inflation surprises to upside, weighing on risk sentiment

US consumer inflation accelerated more than expected last month, helping lift market expectations for at least one more move in the Federal Reserve’s tightening cycle. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the headline consumer price index rose 3.7 percent in September from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This was slightly hotter than consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release – which were set at 3.6 percent and 0.3 percent, respectively.  A rise in housing costs contributed more than half the...

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12 Oct 2023

Price action slows into US inflation print

Good morning. The dollar and long-term Treasury yields are holding steady, equity futures are pushing upward, and the Canadian dollar is inching forward. We see four primary factors driving currencies ahead of the North American open: Relative interest rate differentials are moving against the dollar after yesterday’s Federal Reserve minutes showed officials turning wary on raising rates too much. According to the record of the September policy meeting, “Participants generally judged that, with the stance of monetary policy in restrictive territory, risks to the achievement of the committee’s goals had become more two-sided,” with “all participants” agreed on the need...

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11 Oct 2023

US inflation in focus

• Mixed signals. Markets brushed off the hotter than expected headline US PPI, with the minutes of the last policy meeting reinforcing the Fed’s cautious stance.• USD volatility. Long-end US bond yields continue to fall as markets pare back further US Fed rate hike bets. The USD is near the bottom of its October range.• AUD holding. AUD whipped around a little overnight, but on net it is still tracking above ~$0.64 (~2% above recent lows). US inflation data released tonight. Markets were generally subdued overnight. The modest knee-jerk strength in the USD, lift in bond yields, and softness in...

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