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USD

24 Sep 2023

Another US government shutdown looming?

• Negative vibes. Bond yields eased back & US equities continued to lose steam. The global PMIs illustrated ongoing sluggish growth momentum.• USD mixed. GBP remains on the backfoot as markets price in ‘peak’ rates. USD/JPY rose after the BoJ held steady. AUD ticked a bit higher.• Event radar. Locally, monthly CPI & retail sales due this week. Offshore, EZ CPI & US PCE data released. Risk of another US government shutdown also rising. The upswing in bond yields paused for breath on Friday and equity markets continued to lose steam. US and UK 10yr yields ended Friday ~6bps lower...

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22 Sep 2023

Into thin air

The speed at which memes spread across the financial media can be astonishing. Since the Bank of England’s Huw Pill recently described the likely monetary policy trajectory as resembling Cape Town’s “Table Mountain” – steep on the sides, with a long plateau on top – in an August speech, sell-side analysts and commentators from major news publications have rushed to point out that the majority of mountain climbing deaths occur during the descent phase. This is true. A 2008 study showed that 73 percent of the deaths occurring between 1921 and 2006 on Mount Everest happened when climbers were descending...

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22 Sep 2023

US exceptionalism trade regains momentum

A bruising week for global Wall Street continues this morning, with the dollar holding steady and major indices paring gains into the North American open. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching slightly lower after climbing to a 16-year high in yesterday’s session, paying more than 4.5 percent at one point. The moves came after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday issued forecasts showing rate cuts happening at a slower and more incremental pace than markets had previously anticipated, and after another weekly claims report beat expectations, suggesting that labour markets remain far from cooling. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell...

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21 Sep 2023

Bond yields keep rising

• Negative sentiment. Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ forecasts have continued to wash through. Long-end bond yields rose again. Equities dipped. USD consolidated.• BoE surprise. Following the weaker UK CPI the BoE surprised by keeping rates on hold. GBP weakened with markets starting to price in a rates ‘peak’.• AUD softer. AUD slipped back over the past 24hrs. AUD/JPY has fallen by ~1%. The BoJ is today. Could it spring a ‘hawkish’ surprise? Risk markets have generally remained on the defensive with long-end bond yields continuing to push higher as the US Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra continues to sink in....

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21 Sep 2023

Of tsunamis and wavelets

Japanese currency jawboning efforts have gained momentum in recent weeks, with the rhetoric reaching renewed levels of intensity over the last few days. Masato Kanda – Vice Minister of Finance for International Affairs in the Ministry of Finance – warned authorities “will not rule out any options in dealing with excessive foreign exchange fluctuations,” and said “We’re in very close communication with the US monetary authorities and share the view that excessive volatility is undesirable”. Janet Yellen concurred, implicitly giving the US Treasury Department’s approval by saying “We usually communicate with them about these interventions and generally understand the need...

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