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USD

15 Oct 2023

Risky times

• Risk aversion. Middle East developments have weighed on risk sentiment. Bond yields & equities lower, while gold, oil, & the USD have been supported.• AUD pressure. The backdrop is pressuring the AUD. But we think it is starting to look stretched on several metrics. A lot of ‘bad news’ could already be priced.• Event radar. US retail sales, China data, AU jobs, & NZ CPI due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks, & there is a conga line of Fed speakers including Chair Powell. Events in the Middle East have been front of mind for markets. Risks that the conflict is...

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13 Oct 2023

Soaring yields support greenback, but move shows signs of exhaustion

Happy Friday. We see four key factors driving currency markets this morning: Safe haven assets are catching a bid as the conflict in the Middle East worsens, threatening to involve other regional powers. With Israel preparing for a ground offensive in Gaza and refugee flows into other counties set to increase, fears of wider disruption – which could lead to tighter sanctions on Iranian crude and ultimately slow flows through the Strait of Hormuz – are growing. Equity futures are pointing to a softer open, the euro and pound are sliding against the yen, Swiss franc, and dollar, and oil-linked...

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12 Oct 2023

MAS holds the line

At its 13 October policy review, the Monetary Authority of Singapore didn’t rock the boat, and in line with expectations maintained “the prevailing rate of appreciation” of the SGD NEER (i.e. 1.5%pa). The MAS also held the width of the trading band and level at which it is centered steady. In our view, maintaining the width of the SGD NEER band at 2% from the midpoint gives the MAS scope to support activity should the downside global growth risks flagged materialise (see below). Going forward the MAS is shifting to quarterly, rather than semi-annual, policy reviews in 2024. The next...

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12 Oct 2023

US CPI market conniption

• US CPI. The data caused a bit of a market conniption with US bond yields & the USD jumping up. This & negative risk sentiment weighed on the AUD.• Over-reaction? We think markets may have over-reacted. Rents boosted services prices, but more broadly there are signs progress is (slowly) being made.• Event radar. Since 2015 the AUD has only traded below current levels ~1% of the time. China trade & CPI, & the MAS meeting are in focus today. US CPI inflation was in focus overnight, and the result, even though it was very close to expectations, caused a...

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12 Oct 2023

Consistently Surprising

This morning’s data is unlikely to shift the Federal Reserve’s stance on interest rates. With the bulk of the headline move coming from housing and energy, underlying dynamics are still pointing to a gradual moderation in price pressures over the months ahead.  But it did show that inflation prints retain the capacity for surprise, and will help maintain the risk premium – the degree of uncertainty expected around the future path of prices – that is currently built into long-term interest rates. This premium (which forms part of the broader term premium) is notoriously difficult to measure, but probability densities...

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