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USD

29 Jan 2024

Upbeat vibes. Will it last?

• Positive tone. US equities higher as bond yields dip. News the US Treasury had reduced its borrowing estimates a factor. USD slips back, AUD firmer.• More vol? There is a long list of global data releases this week, with the US Fed also meeting. More bursts of short-term volatility likely.• AU data. Retail sales expected to decline as Black Friday boost unwinds. Q4 CPI (due tomorrow) likely to come in below the RBA’s thinking. It has been a relatively positive start to an action-packed week that includes US Fed and Bank of England meetings, key global releases such as...

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29 Jan 2024

Weekly Chartbook, January 29

Fed policy is growing more restrictive. Fed Funds Target Rate, % Quarterly Refunding Announcements have been moving markets. USDCAD, DXY, EURUSD exchange rates, % change  British inflation rates are coming down faster than previously anticipated. Consumer Price Index, annual change, %, SA

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29 Jan 2024

Big Week Beckons, Keeping Markets Rangebound

Consolidative trading patterns are dominating markets this morning as participants prepare for a banger of a week. Tomorrow’s euro area gross domestic product, US consumer confidence, and job openings prints will help set the tone before Wednesday brings Canadian gross domestic product numbers, the Fed’s preferred wage cost measure, the Treasury’s quarterly refunding announcement, and a Federal Reserve meeting. Updated euro area inflation data and the Bank of England’s latest decision will drop on Thursday ahead of Friday’s January’s non-farm payrolls report. The greenback is holding steady, defying a slight drop in yields, equity futures are stable, commodity prices are...

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28 Jan 2024

Will the US Fed lean against rate cut pricing?

• Soft landing? US GDP & PCE inflation data supported ‘soft landing’ views. Growth was better than expected, while inflation pressures continue to ease.• FX consolidation. Despite the macro signals FX majors have been range bound. USD is treading water, with AUD near its 200-day moving average.• Event radar. It is a busy week with Eurozone GDP/CPI, China PMIs, Australian inflation, & a range of US labour stats wrapped around the US Fed meeting. Last weeks economic dataflow supported views the US remains on the very narrow path towards a ‘soft landing’. US GDP exceeded expectations with growth running at...

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26 Jan 2024

US Price Growth Cools Despite Ongoing Consumer Bacchanalia

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure softened to a near-three-year low in December, but personal spending continued to rise, helping further ratify expectations for a soft landing in the US economy – while slightly complicating the outlook for rate cuts. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.2 percent in December from the prior month, bringing the three-month annualized pace down to 1.5 percent, well within the central bank’s target range. On a year over year basis, core price growth slowed to 2.9 percent from 3.2 percent prior, and...

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