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USD

07 Nov 2023

Fedspeak back in driver’s seat

 Aaaaannd we’re back. Ten-year Treasuries are again yielding more than 4.63 percent and the dollar is up after the Minneapolis Federal Reserve’s Neel Kashkari warned rates might have further to climb in the months ahead. “Before we declare that we’re absolutely done, we’ve solved the problem, let’s get more data and see how the economy evolves,” he told Fox News yesterday, “We need to let the data keep coming to us to see if we really have got the inflation genie back in the bottle”. As if to punctuate Kashkari’s point, the Reserve Bank of Australia last night set a...

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07 Nov 2023

RBA: it ain’t over till it’s over

After sitting on its hands since delivering a rate rise in early-June, the RBA has seen enough to think that its policy settings weren’t ‘restrictive’ enough to get inflation back down to the 2-3% target band in the desired time. At today’s meeting the RBA Board, under the stewardship of new Governor Bullock, raised interest rates by another 25bps. This has taken the cash rate up to 4.35%, its highest level since November 2011. Today’s move has taken the cumulative tightening delivered to 425bps, by far the most abrupt RBA hiking cycle in several decades. According to the RBA, inflation...

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06 Nov 2023

RBA: will they or won’t they?

• Consolidation. Bond yields recovered a bit of lost ground, though moves across FX were limited. The USD is a little firmer. AUD slipped back under $0.65.• Another RBA hike? RBA in focus today. Most analysts expect another 25bp hike. Markets are less sure with a ~65% chance of a move factored in.• AUD vol. A hike combined with an ongoing tightening bias should be AUD positive. But a no change decision could trigger a larger knee-jerk AUD fall. After last weeks outsized market moves, it isn’t surprising to see that there was some modest payback overnight. US equities were...

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06 Nov 2023

Weekly Chartbook

Labour market slack is shrinking. Fed expectations have fallen sharply. Bank of Canada projections have dropped more significantly. But economic surprise gaps are still very wide. Underlying growth signals are surprisingly stable. And rate differentials remain dollar-supportive. US economic policy uncertainty has fallen to record lows… huh?

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06 Nov 2023

All together now

With incoming economic data softening across North America, market projections for central bank policy paths have shifted significantly in the last few weeks. In contrast with implied market pricing on October 18 – when the Federal Reserve was seen delivering at least one, maybe two cuts by November 2024, even as the Bank of Canada was expected to keep rates on hold – the US is now seen slashing rates at least three times, while Canada is expected to cut at least twice. To us, this has reduced mispricing embedded in dollar-Canada rate differentials, and has temporarily reduced downside risks...

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