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USD

04 Dec 2023

RBA in focus today

• Partial reversal. US bond yields & the USD rebounded, while US equities dipped. There was no major economic news overnight.• AUD pull-back. Ahead of today’s RBA decision the AUD has lost ground. No change in rates is anticipated with focus on the RBA’s forward guidance.• US jobs. There is a slew of US jobs data out the next few days that will test expectations looking for no further Fed hikes & for cuts to start in May. Short term gyrations continued overnight with US bond yields and the USD rebounding, while across equities the S&P500 (-0.5%) and tech-focused NASDAQ...

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04 Dec 2023

Pivot hopes carry markets higher

Markets are blithely ignoring Friday’s hawkish guidance from Jerome Powell. Risk-sensitive assets and high-beta currencies remain well-bid even after the Federal Reserve chair said it was “premature to conclude with confidence that we have achieved a sufficiently restrictive stance, or to speculate on when policy might ease,” with investors instead choosing to focus on a brief aside in which he acknowledged rates had been lifted “well into restrictive territory,” allowing policymakers to “proceed carefully”. Yields and the dollar are down and overnight index swaps are showing more than 125 basis points of easing priced in to the curve for 2024,...

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03 Dec 2023

USD doldrums continue

• Fed speak. Some measured comments by Chair Powell & weaker ISM data reinforced expectations the next move by the Fed could be a rate cut.• USD weaker. The drop in US bond yields has exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD has risen back up to the top of its multi-month range.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA’s last meeting of ’23 & Q3 GDP are due. Offshore, focus will be on US labour stats with non-farm payrolls rounding things out. Downward pressure on US bond yields and the USD returned on Friday with the previous days rebound fleeting. Comments...

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01 Dec 2023

Risk appetite subsides ahead of Powell appearance

Treasury yields are holding steady and the dollar is firmer as traders square positions going into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Spelman College this morning. The 11:00 webcast will mark Powell’s last appearance before the pre-meeting blackout period begins ahead of the central bank’s December meeting, and should land during a relatively quiet trading day: Canada will report its latest employment numbers in half an hour, and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey is expected to rise to 47.7 in November from 46.7 in the prior month. Mr. Powell seems likely to avoid declaring “mission accomplished” on...

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30 Nov 2023

USD rebound. But for how long?

• Mixed markets. Equities edged higher, bond yields rose, & the USD rebounded. The AUD has slipped back over the past few sessions.• Data pulse. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected, weighing on EUR. US data showed spending & inflation are moderating. Unemployment claims are rising.• AUD dips. AUD has given back some ground. RBA next week. No change expected, but we think the pressure to move again in early-2024 remains. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets overnight. However, while some of it was macro related, month-end ‘window dressing’ as investors rebalance exposures after sharp moves over...

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