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USD

06 Dec 2023

Growth worries return

• Bond yields. Weaker than expected data & drop in oil has bolstered rate cut bets, pushing long-end bond yields lower once again.• Shaky sentiment. Negative sentiment gave the USD a bit of a boost. After clawing back ground earlier on, the AUD is back down where it was 24hrs ago.• AU GDP. Economic momentum has stepped down. While the growth outlook supports the case for no more hikes, RBA cuts could still be some time away. Global bonds have continued to power ahead. Weaker than expected data and an oil price slump has eased inflation worries, bolstered rate cut...

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06 Dec 2023

Pivot expectations go global

The greenback is staging a modest recovery this morning – not because traders are suddenly coming to the realization that Federal Reserve rate cut expectations have overshot, but because expectations for other central banks are falling even faster. Investors expect six rate cuts from the European Central Bank next year after German factory orders fell unexpectedly in October, adding to a mountain of evidence suggesting that the powerhouse of the euro area economy is in recession. Demand for manufactured goods fell -3.7 percent, coming in well below the 0.2-percent increase expected by economists as machinery and equipment orders plunged. In...

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05 Dec 2023

Bond yields fall again

• Lower yields. A drop in US job openings & dovish ECB comments weighed on bond yields. But relatively larger falls in Europe supported the USD.• RBA holds. No change from the RBA. The lack of a tweak to its guidance compounded the firmer USD. The AUD’s pull-back extended overnight.• Data flow. Q3 AU GDP due today, while in the US labour stats will remain in focus with ADP employment tonight & non-farm payrolls rounding out the week. Bond market moves were in focus overnight and this flowed through to FX with the USD firmer thanks to some EUR and...

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05 Dec 2023

JOLTS of lightning

According to this morning’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS), the ratio between the number of open jobs and the number of unemployed US workers fell dramatically in October, helping drive yields and the greenback lower.  The “everything rally” that powered most asset classes higher through the month of November is back on, with investors betting on a historically-unusual scenario occurring – one in which a softening labour market clears the way for an aggressive course of rate cuts in 2024, even as the economy skirts recession. This is, admittedly, quite possible. The evolution of the post-pandemic business cycle...

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05 Dec 2023

Cognitive dissonance in markets begins to correct

Risk-sensitive currencies are giving back some of last week’s gains this morning, tumbling in the face of a resurgent dollar. US Treasury yields are climbing and the greenback is pushing higher as investors begin to question whether the Federal Reserve will cut rates aggressively without a “hard landing” in the economy next year. With unemployment inching up, consumer spending showing clear signs of exhaustion, and business capital expenditures shifting into reverse, the typical indicators of a recession are blinking red, and data out this week—today’s Institute for Supply Management services survey, and Friday’s November non-farm payrolls report—could provide more evidence...

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