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USD

03 Dec 2023

USD doldrums continue

• Fed speak. Some measured comments by Chair Powell & weaker ISM data reinforced expectations the next move by the Fed could be a rate cut.• USD weaker. The drop in US bond yields has exerted more pressure on the USD. AUD has risen back up to the top of its multi-month range.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA’s last meeting of ’23 & Q3 GDP are due. Offshore, focus will be on US labour stats with non-farm payrolls rounding things out. Downward pressure on US bond yields and the USD returned on Friday with the previous days rebound fleeting. Comments...

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01 Dec 2023

Risk appetite subsides ahead of Powell appearance

Treasury yields are holding steady and the dollar is firmer as traders square positions going into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments at Spelman College this morning. The 11:00 webcast will mark Powell’s last appearance before the pre-meeting blackout period begins ahead of the central bank’s December meeting, and should land during a relatively quiet trading day: Canada will report its latest employment numbers in half an hour, and the Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing survey is expected to rise to 47.7 in November from 46.7 in the prior month. Mr. Powell seems likely to avoid declaring “mission accomplished” on...

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30 Nov 2023

USD rebound. But for how long?

• Mixed markets. Equities edged higher, bond yields rose, & the USD rebounded. The AUD has slipped back over the past few sessions.• Data pulse. Eurozone CPI slowed more than expected, weighing on EUR. US data showed spending & inflation are moderating. Unemployment claims are rising.• AUD dips. AUD has given back some ground. RBA next week. No change expected, but we think the pressure to move again in early-2024 remains. A bit of a reversal of fortunes across markets overnight. However, while some of it was macro related, month-end ‘window dressing’ as investors rebalance exposures after sharp moves over...

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30 Nov 2023

North American growth trajectory softens, supporting lower yields

US consumer spending softened, income growth slowed, and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure decelerated as expected in October, adding momentum to the massive decline in yields seen since Governor Waller put “mechanical” rate cuts on the table earlier in the week. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index – targeted by central bankers – flatlining in October relative to the prior month, up 3.5 percent year-over-year – aligning perfectly with consensus estimates. The overall personal consumption expenditures index was up 3 percent from a year ago. Speaking at an...

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30 Nov 2023

Uneasy calm prevails ahead of US data

Currency markets are marking time ahead of data that is expected to show US economic activity slowing from the pace set in the third quarter. The October personal income and spending report should show signs of an across-the-board deceleration, with weaker wage growth and increasing consumer restraint translating into softer inflation rates. Increases in the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure – the core personal consumption expenditures index – are seen falling to 0.2 percent month-over-month, down from 0.3 percent previously, and 3.5 percent year-over-year, versus the prior 3.7 percent. This would put underlying inflation pressures on track toward undershooting the central...

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