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USD

11 Dec 2023

Will US inflation spring a surprise?

• Weaker JPY. Quiet markets, except for the JPY. Reports indicating the BoJ may not be in a rush to change policy has weighed on the JPY.• US CPI. US inflation tonight, ahead of this weeks Fed meeting. Signs inflation is easing should support views the next move will be to cut rates, albeit in 2024.• AUD anniversary. 40yrs since the float. Over this time AUD avg. $0.7550. But it is volatile. On avg. AUD has traded in a ~14cent range each year. It has been a quiet start to the week across most markets as participants marked time ahead...

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11 Dec 2023

Good vibes?

The vibecession* – the deep sense of economic pessimism among consumers, businesses, and the media that set in after the pandemic – might be over. Friday’s University of Michigan survey illustrated a massive improvement in inflation expectations and consumer sentiment, and the San Francisco Fed’s daily news sentiment index has turned strongly upward, putting the three-month moving average very close to positive territory: This isn’t to suggest that a real recession isn’t around the corner – we still think one probably is – but stories do play a powerful role in determining how markets and economic actors behave. A further...

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11 Dec 2023

Busy week beckons

Investors are kicking off the penultimate markets week of 2023 in a cautiously-optimistic fashion. Equity futures are pointing up, Treasury yields are incrementally higher, and the dollar is moving sideways amid mixed trading conditions. The Japanese yen is the only big mover on currency markets, trading with a decidedly-weaker bias this morning after a media report suggested a big policy change was unlikely to come at next week’s meeting. Citing “people familiar with the matter,” Bloomberg said officials weren’t yet seeing the evidence of the sustained rise in wage growth needed to generate higher inflation over the long run. According...

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10 Dec 2023

US Fed in focus this week

• US jobs. Payrolls were a bit higher than forecast & US unemployment dipped. US equities & yields rose giving the USD some support.• FX moves. The USD rebound was modest. Most of the major pairs, including the AUD, only slipped back to where they were tracking the day earlier.• Event radar. Locally, jobs data is due. Offshore, the US Fed, ECB & BoE meet. On top of that US CPI & retail sales are released, as is the China data batch. Positive sentiment across financial markets continued into the end of last week. A better-than-expected US labour market report...

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08 Dec 2023

Hotter-than-expected jobs report bolsters dollar

The US job creation engine kept humming in November, suggesting that the Federal Reserve has farther to go in slowing the economy – policymakers may have to hold rates at prevailing levels for longer. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 199,000 jobs were added, and the unemployment rate crept lower to 3.8 percent, heading back toward historic lows. Average hourly earnings rose 0.4 percent year-over-year, solidly topping expectations. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a 180,000-job gain (although the “whisper number” was likely lower) and the unemployment rate was seen holding...

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