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USD

18 Feb 2024

Fed speak on this weeks radar

• Diverging markets. US yields rose & the S&P500 dipped after US producer prices exceeded expectations. However the USD eased. AUD at ~$0.6530.• Holiday data. High frequency data & reports suggest Chinese spending & travel exceeded pre-COVID run-rates. Is the tide finally turning?• Event radar. Locally, Q4 wages is due (Weds). US Fed commentary in focus with several members speaking later in the week. Eurozone PMIs released (Thurs). Markets consolidated on Friday night. In contrast to the Japanese Nikkei which touched another multi-decade high US equities unwound the modest gains from the previous day (S&P500 -0.5%) with higher bond yields...

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15 Feb 2024

Bad news is good news

• Market reversal. The unwind of this week’s US inflation driven moves has continued. Equities higher, US yields eased a bit, & the USD lost ground.• Sentiment vs reality. The positive tone has come through despite sluggish global data. Japan & the UK entered recession, US retail sales declined.• AU jobs. The jobs report underwhelmed, but technical factors point to an unwind next month. AUD has clawed its way back to where it started the week. Investors have been in a ‘bad economic news is good for markets’ frame of mind. The unwind of the US inflation driven bout of...

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14 Feb 2024

Sentiment improves

• Sentiment improved overnight. US equities rose, bond yields dipped, & the AUD outperformed. UK inflation failed to re-accelerate.• The Fed’s Goolsbee also tempered the markets negative vibes by keeping the door open to a policy re-calibration later this year.• Australian labour force data due today. Analysts are looking for jobs to rebound after the outsized December drop. Markets settled down overnight with the burst of risk aversion following the hotter than expected US inflation data partially unwinding. US and European equities rose with the tech-sector outperforming (NASDAQ +0.9%, S&P500 +0.5%), while bond yields dipped. The US 2yr rate declined...

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13 Feb 2024

Any juice left in the USD’s upswing?

The USD has been on a tear over early 2024, with the USD Index undergoing a round trip. The USD pull-back that transpired at the end of last year has unwound just as quickly. Given the rest of the world is a ‘price taker’ and what happens with the USD is the key cog in the FX machine, this has seen currencies like the EUR (now ~$1.0710) and the AUD (now ~$0.6460) fall back, and others such as USD/JPY (now ~150.40) and USD/SGD (now ~1.35) rise, to levels last traded in mid-November. A string of positive US data surprises, the...

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13 Feb 2024

US inflation jolts markets

• US inflation. A positive US inflation surprise rattled markets. US bond yields jumped up, equities fell, & the USD strengthened. AUD back down near ~$0.6450.• Rate pricing. Odds of a Fed rate cut in March or May have tumbled. Markets are now (finally) factoring in a similar path forward to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’.• AU events. The next AUD centric event is tomorrows labour force report. Will employment rebound from its December slump or will the cracks widen? The latest read on US inflation rattled markets overnight. US CPI positively surprised pretty much all the analysts surveyed with headline...

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