USD

Good morning. With a barrage of economic data releases and central bank speeches scheduled in the days ahead, traders remain unwilling to take big directional positions. Treasury yields are little changed, equity futures are setting up for a flat open, oil prices are down slightly, and the dollar is holding last week’s gains. Volatility in the currency markets continues to drift lower, and it’s admittedly difficult to see what might break this dynamic. 3-month at-the-money implied option volatility We count at least fourteen appearances from Fed policymakers on the schedule this week, but most are likely to follow in Governor...

Risk appetite is rebounding across the financial markets this morning after artificial intelligence chipmaker Nvidia’s earnings results exceeded astonishingly-high investor expectations. Sales more than tripled in the company’s fiscal fourth quarter, and are projected to do so again in the first quarter of 2024, with President Jensen Huang noting that “Demand is surging worldwide across companies, industries, and nations”. Equity markets are on a tear, with Nasdaq futures pointing to a 2-percent gap higher at the open, while the S&P 500 sets up for a 1-percent gain. Treasury yields are headed lower, and the dollar is declining, particularly against high-beta...