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Fed Bets on “No Landing” Scenario, Lifts Long-Term Rate Projections

For a fifth consecutive meeting, the US Federal Reserve’s policy committee held benchmark borrowing costs at a 23-year high, but policymakers raised inflation forecasts and lowered the number of rate cuts expected in the years ahead – suggesting that the risk of a re-acceleration in price growth continues to take precedence over signs of incipient economic weakness in driving the central bank’s reaction function.  In a broadly unchanged statement, the Federal Open Market Committee said it “does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward...

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Will the Fed’s ‘dot plot’ change?

• Firmer USD. US equities higher & bond yields a little lower. A higher USD/JPY has boosted the USD. AUD & NZD have shed some more ground.• BoJ & RBA. BoJ hiked rates for the first time since 2007. But markets were underwhelmed. RBA tweaked its forward guidance to more ‘neutral’ language.• US Fed. Focus tomorrow morning will be on the US Fed’s forecasts & guidance. No change to 2024 projections could disappoint ‘hawkish’ expectations. Following a bit of volatility in yesterday’s Asian session after the Bank of Japan changes (and RBA meeting) asset markets were more subdued overnight as...

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RBA wordplay, BoJ adjustment

Some central bank action in today’s Asian session with the RBA and Bank of Japan meeting. The former had a bit of wordplay in its post meeting statement, while the latter finally relented and took steps to normalise its ultra-loose policy stance. Although market participants appear underwhelmed with the BoJ’s actions. The resultant lift in USD/JPY has flowed through and exerted downward pressure on the AUD. In terms of the RBA, as expected interest rates remained at 4.35%. In its view, while there are “encouraging signs” inflation is coming down it “remains high” and “the economic outlook remains uncertain”. As...

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When Carry Met Rally

We’ll have what they’re having. North American equity futures are setting up for a solid open after Nvidia Corp. unveiled a significantly faster artificial intelligence processor, Treasury yields are stable on hopes the Federal Reserve will leave its dovish forward guidance intact in tomorrow’s decision, and risk appetite is improving in currency markets as conditions for the global carry trade remain supportive. The Bank of Japan ended a decades-long experiment with unconventional monetary policy last night, and markets shrugged. Policymakers voted by a 7-2 margin to lift the key target for short-term rates to a range of 0-to-0.1 percent, stop...

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March Madness Begins

Well, madness for economics nerds anyway. Equity futures are setting up for a modestly-positive open, ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady near the 4.3 percent mark, and most major currency pairs are range-bound ahead of a week in which central banks in Australia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, Switzerland, the UK, and the United States will deliver rate decisions. Tomorrow morning, the Bank of Japan could raise rates into positive territory for the first time since 2007. A significant share of market participants expect policymakers to lift the overnight and uncollateralized call rates by 10 basis points and end the yield...

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