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USD

USD/JPY & AUD/JPY: A line in the sand?

The wild ride in the JPY over the past few trading sessions has got the markets attention, and raised the question of whether Japanese authorities have (finally) intervened after firing several verbal warning shots? USD/JPY traded in a 3.6% range on Monday, around 4 times its historical norm, as it quickly plunged from a fresh multi-decade peak just above 160 before settling down (now ~156.70). Officials from Japan have kept markets guessing by not confirming or denying whether any action took place. But as the saying goes “if it walks like a duck and quacks like a duck then it...

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JPY shenanigans

• JPY vol. USD/JPY dropped sharply yesterday. Intervention hasn’t been officially confirmed. Risk of action to prop up the weak JPY remains elevated.• AUD rise. AUD continues to grind higher. AUD is now more than 3% from its Israel/Iran risk aversion lows. China PMIs & AU retail sales due today.• Global data. Tonight, Eurozone GDP/CPI & the US Employment Cost Index (a broad wages gauge monitored by the US Fed) are released. It has been a relatively quiet start to the new week for most markets, with positive risk vibes continuing and swings in the JPY getting the most attention....

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Yen Rollercoaster Accelerates

The Japanese yen is stabilising after an extraordinarily-turbulent session. With markets closed for the Golden Week holiday, the exchange rate briefly crashed through the 160-per-dollar threshold for the first time since 1990, and then reversed almost five big figures higher when rumours of central bank intervention hit the wires early this morning – generating a total intra-day move that was the widest since December 2022, and among the top 20 dollar-yen trading ranges in modern history. Official confirmation hasn’t yet been provided, and evidence of the traditional “rate checking” activity from the Bank of Japan is lacking thus far, but...

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US Fed & JPY trends in focus

• Upbeat tone. Equities rose while yields drifted back on Friday. The JPY’s slide continued. The shift in RBA pricing helped the AUD outperform last week.• Priced in? A ‘hawkish hold’ expected from the US Fed. Rates markets already look to be factoring that in. A lot of positives appear priced into the USD.• Event radar. Globally focus will be on the China PMIs (Tues), various US labour stats (including payrolls on Friday), & the US Fed meeting (Thurs). Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing. European and US equities rose with the S&P500’s 1% lift on the back...

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Inflation Progress Stalls, Putting Fed Cuts Further Out of Reach

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure remained stuck at elevated levels in March, but a feared overshoot was avoided, helping alleviate market tensions. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index rising 0.3 percent in March from the prior month, but January’s number was revised higher to 0.5 percent, bringing the three-month annualised pace up to 4.4 percent, well above the central bank’s target range. On a year over year basis, base effects saw core price growth stabilising at 2.8 percent, the same as in February, slightly higher than consensus estimates....

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