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USD

10 Apr 2024

US Inflation Comes In Hot, Lowering Odds on June Rate Cut

Consumer price growth remained stubbornly elevated in the United States last month, suggesting that hotter-than-expected prints in January and February were not simply driven by seasonal aberrations, and raising doubts around the Federal Reserve’s plan to deliver three rate cuts over the remainder of the year. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index – with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded – rose 3.8 percent in March from the same period last year, up 0.4 percent on a month-over-month basis. This exceeded consensus estimates among economists polled by the major...

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10 Apr 2024

Trading Ranges Shrink Ahead of US Inflation Data

Price action is slowing and the dollar is holding steady against its counterparts in the foreign exchange markets as investors brace for the biggest US consumer price index print since… well, since the last one. Economists surveyed by the major data providers expect the Bureau of Labor Statistics to report a 0.3-percent rise in both headline and core price measures for the month of March – a result which would indicate that January and February’s hotter-than-expected prints were temporary aberrations in a longer-term cooling process. Some risk has likely been taken off the table: Equity indices and risk-sensitive currencies swooned...

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09 Apr 2024

All eyes on US inflation

• Waiting game. Most markets consolidate ahead of tonight’s US CPI report. US bond yields a little lower, while the USD index tread water.• AUD revival. Firmer base metal prices helped the AUD. The AUD’s recent rebound is inline with its seasonal pattern. Will the US CPI stop its upswing?• RBNZ meeting. RBNZ meets today. It may not (yet) tweak its forward guidance. This may see AUD/NZD’s upturn temporarily stall. Tonight’s US CPI inflation report (10:30pm AEST) is the key event for markets, and with it coming closer into view it isn’t surprising most of major asset classes consolidated overnight....

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08 Apr 2024

Dollar Pushes Higher Ahead of Economically-Eventful Week

The dollar is trading with a firmer bias ahead of a week filled with first-tier economic events, and after Friday’s forecast-crushing US jobs number triggered a pop in Treasury yields. Both the pound and euro are starting the week on the back foot, weakened by expectations of earlier rate cuts from the Bank of England and European Central Bank, while the Japanese yen remains hemmed in by short sellers on one side and the threat of intervention on the other. Global oil benchmarks are losing altitude after Israel said it would withdraw some troops from Gaza, reducing perceived geopolitical risk...

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05 Apr 2024

US Jobs Number Smashes Estimates, Canada’s… Doesn’t

The US job creation engine accelerated in March, further lowering market-implied odds on rate cuts in the back half of the year. According to data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, 303,000 jobs were added in the month, with the unemployment rate falling to 3.8 percent, and average hourly earnings climbing 0.3 percent month-over-month. Ahead of the release, consensus estimates had pointed to a circa-215,000-position gain, and no major forecaster had anticipated a print above the 270,000 mark. Hours worked – often considered a better measure of underlying labour market trends – ticked higher to 34, surprising...

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