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USD

06 May 2026

Let’s make a deal (round #5)

• Positive vibes. Markets optimistic about an end to the US/Iran conflict. Oil lower, USD softer. NZD outperforms. AUD touched a fresh multi-year high.• Twists & turns. Spillovers from the conflict set to be with us for a while. RBA rate hikes will weigh on growth. US jobs report could generate FX vol. Global Trends Markets have remained in a positive state of mind with hopes of an end to the conflict in Iran underpinning risk sentiment. Reports indicate the US has offered Iran a memorandum of understanding that could end the conflict, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and lift...

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06 May 2026

Playing musical chairs with global trade

American trade imbalances aren’t going away, just moving geographically By the time Donald Trump entered the White House in 2017, faith in free trade among America’s elite had already collapsed. Antipathy to globalisation was the closest thing Washington had to consensus, and the $552-billion deficit the United States ran that year was seen as evidence of national surrender. In the years since, presidents of both parties have wielded tariffs against adversaries and allies alike, raised regulatory barriers, and launched vast reshoring efforts aimed at closing trade imbalances—leading many pundits to declare the age of globalisation over. Trade flows haven’t got...

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06 May 2026

Markets soar on hopes for Iran deal

The dollar is trading near its lowest levels in months, bond yields are plunging, and equity indices advancing after Axios reported that Washington and Tehran are nearing an agreement to end the war in the Middle East. Both global crude benchmarks are down more than 9%, with Brent trading below $100 and West Texas Intermediate nearing $90, and most major currencies are climbing against the greenback as traders scale back expectations for an energy price-induced shock to economies with heavy import exposures. A US-Iran deal could reshape the conflict and reduce risk across the global economy. According to Axios, Jared...

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05 May 2026

RBA: Higher inflation & slower growth

The RBA continues to take few chances when it comes to the problematic domestic inflation trends with another interest rate hike announced today. This is the third consecutive meeting the RBA has tapped on the brakes with the latest 25bp increase moving the cash rate up to 4.35%. Policy settings have been recalibrated quickly. The interest rate ‘relief’ delivered last year has been unwound with the cash rate back at the ‘peak’ reached in the 2023/24 inflation fight. Today’s decision wasn’t unanimous with the RBA Board voting 8-1 in favour of a hike. It was a matter of when, not...

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05 May 2026

RBA hikes again. But it will come at a cost.

• Optimistic markets. Equities rose, oil dipped on positive US/Iran vibes. More volatility likely. USD softens. AUD whipped around by push/pull forces.• RBA hike. RBA announced its 3rd straight rate rise. Another hike more likely than not. But it will come at an economic cost. Growth set to slow sharply. Global Trends Sentiment about the situation in the Middle East has generated a few bursts of volatility over recent sessions. Following a deterioration in risk appetite yesterday indications the US/Iran ceasefire is holding eased fears overnight. US officials downplayed Iran’s actions stating that the targeting of warships and attacks on...

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