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Market turmoil eases, leaving major currencies rangebound

Happy Friday. Markets are pausing for breath after a tumultuous week of inflation shocks coupled with a sharp deterioration in sentiment toward the artificial-intelligence buildout. Equity futures are edging higher after days of losses, Treasuries are steadying, and Brent crude is holding near $105 a barrel as the supply outlook fails to improve. On the week, the dollar is down roughly 0.5%, with virtually all of its major counterparts, the Japanese yen excepted, up by similar margins. US inflation pressures are showing clear signs of acceleration. Producer prices rose at the fastest monthly pace in more than four years in...

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AUD under the pump

• Market swings. Rotation out of tech stocks supports the broader S&P500. US bond yields fall. USD softer. NZD edges up, but AUD weakens.• AU jobs. Employment fell sharply due to part-time jobs. Unemployment at 5yr highs. Odds of another RBA hike reduced. But high inflation still a problem. Global Trends A few push-pull forces have washed through markets over recent days and generated bursts of volatility. Following a weak Asian session for risk assets yesterday (at one point South Korea’s KOSPI triggered circuit breakers after plunging ~8%), which itself somewhat stemmed from the rise in bond yields generated by...

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The world’s biggest trade just flinched

If there has been one consistent message in our analysis over the past few years, it is that global portfolios have crowded—to an unhealthy degree—into a single bet: the US technology sector, and by extension the US dollar. Yesterday offered a small but telling illustration showing why that should trouble investors. Shares linked to artificial intelligence sold off. The yen and the Swiss franc rallied. And yet the dollar tumbled. That is not how a reserve currency is supposed to behave on a risk-off day. It is how a risk-sensitive currency behaves. A long period of US exceptionalism set the...

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Equity market turbulence intensifies, sending dollar reeling

Shares are sliding and the dollar is tumbling against its main counterparts as an unwinding of crowded AI-related trades sends investors fleeing to safe havens. US equity markets are setting up for further losses at the open after technology shares suffered their worst sell-off in months yesterday, Treasury yields are falling, while the yen and Swiss franc outperforming the euro, pound, and Canadian dollar as the retreat from risk gathers momentum. Yesterday’s data added to the turmoil, showing that price pressures in the US economy remain too intense, too widespread, and too persistent. A widely-anticipated consumer price index report showed...

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Underlying US inflation pressures intensify, strengthening dollar

Underlying consumer prices rose more quickly than expected in the United States last month, strengthening the case for more rate hikes from the Federal Reserve, and lifting the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—rose 0.3% in September from the prior month, maintaining the pace set in August, and climbing 2.6% relative to the same period last year, well ahead of the 2.4% consensus forecast as price pressures broadened across categories. The more-volatile all-items headline price measure jumped 0.6% from the prior month...

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