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Good morning. Currency markets are still struggling to navigate conflicting signals from the Middle East. Iran’s deputy foreign minister reportedly told Sky News Arabia that Tehran might be willing to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile in “return for something good”, but an empty tanker was struck off the coast of Kuwait overnight, pointing to a widening campaign against Gulf shipping. Against that backdrop, ten-year Treasury yields are rising for a fourth consecutive day, equity futures are little changed, and the dollar is edging higher. The euro, sterling and yen are all on the defensive, yet holding above key technical levels...

An uneasy sense of calm is settling on currency markets this morning as signs emerge that the conflict in the Middle East may be approaching a negotiated end. According to the New York Times, Iranian intelligence officials have made indirect contact with their US counterparts to “discuss terms for ending the conflict,” dovetailing with a shift in tone from president Trump, who said in a Sunday interview “What we did in Venezuela, I think, is the perfect scenario,” —suggesting that he is willing to step back from earlier demands for regime change in Tehran. Selling pressure eased in yesterday’s session...