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Iran relief rally punishes dollar

A tentative relief rally is unfolding across global markets after the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, with yields falling, equities climbing, and the dollar tumbling against its major rivals in early action. US president Donald Trump yesterday threatened to hit civilian targets across Iran, wiping out a “whole civilization,” but reversed direction before his self-imposed deadline, claiming that Pakistan had brokered a compromise and saying “Almost all of the various points of past contention have been agreed to between the United States and Iran, but a two week period will allow the Agreement to be finalized and...

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Let’s make a deal

• US/Iran ceasefire. News of a ceasefire has boosted risk sentiment. Equity futures higher, oil lower, USD weaker. AUD & NZD at multi-week highs.• Lingering issues. Developments are a positive. But economic aftershocks of events still in the pipeline. RBNZ meets today. No change in rates expected. Global Trends Markets have been on edge to see if President Trump crystallizes his ramped-up threats of strikes against infrastructure sites across Iran (or the “whole civilization” as he posted overnight) or if this was another TACO event (i.e. Trump Always Chickens Out). The US had been turning up its verbal pressure, and...

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Oil prices plunge as US finds off-ramp in Iran conflict

Oil prices are plunging and currency markets are reversing direction after US President Donald Trump said he would “suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks,” “subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz”. “A whole civilization will die tonight, never to be brought back again. I don’t want that to happen, but it probably will,” Trump wrote earlier today, before Pakistan’s prime minister suggested that the two sides agree to a two-week ceasefire*, with Iran permitting traffic to flow through the Strait...

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Trump speech lands with a thud in financial markets

Good morning. Oil prices jumped and currency markets slid back into risk-aversion mode last night when Donald Trump claimed the US-Israeli war against Iran was “nearing completion” but failed to offer a clear timeline and threatened more attacks. In a 19-minute address from the White House, the president said “We are on track to complete all of America’s military objectives shortly, very shortly,” yet “We are going to hit them extremely hard. Over the next two to three weeks, we’re going to bring them back to the Stone Ages, where they belong”. Both global crude oil benchmarks are up more...

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Markets climb on Iran optimism

Markets are soaring after US President Donald Trump announced an end to the war in Iran, saying that he and parliamentary Speaker Mohammad Bagher Qalibaf had “really hit it off” during a FaceTime call brokered by Jared Kushner. “Tremendous guy. Deeply misunderstood. Loves oceanfront real estate,” Trump posted at 4:17 AM. Under the proposed settlement, Iran has agreed to give up nuclear enrichment activities in favour of simply getting rich. Tehran will recycle its oil revenues into a new dollar-pegged stablecoin called the PetroDollar™, which will be backed by partial ownership stakes in certain Trump-branded properties, including an unused room...

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