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31 Oct 2026

Week Ahead Market Brief: November 2 -6

Good morning, and happy Halloween. Currency and government bond markets are holding steady after a week in which monetary and fiscal policymakers largely delivered on expectations: the Bank of Canada raised rates; the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank and the Bank of Japan all held; and in Britain, Chancellor Healey delivered a well-telegraphed, fiscally moderate Budget that kept investors onside with Andy Burnham’s government. Most major currency pairs look largely range-bound, with measures of expected volatility remaining remarkably subdued – including at the one-week horizon – suggesting that participants expect more of the same over the coming days. The...

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29 Oct 2026

US growth accelerates but remains narrow, leaving monetary policy expectations almost unchanged

The world’s biggest economy grew more than expected in the third quarter, lifted by resilient consumer spending and soaring business investment, largely driven by the artificial intelligence buildout. Inflation-adjusted US gross domestic product increased an annualised 3.4% pace in the three months ending in September after rising 2.2% in the prior quarter, according to an initial estimate published by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected the economy to grow at a 3.2% rate. Real final sales to private domestic purchasers—a widely-watched measure of underlying demand—advanced 4.9%, up from 4.6% in the previous quarter....

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28 Oct 2026

Australian CPI jolt & RBNZ shock

• Central banks. US equities ticked up. No change by US Fed. USD a bit weaker. Bank of Canada lifts rates. RBNZ surprised by holding steady. NZD tumbled.• CPI & RBA. Australian Q3 inflation firmer than expected. Odds of another RBA hike next week rise. AUD extends its upswing. Will the RBA deliver? Global Trends Central bank meetings and shifts in interest rate expectations have been in focus over the past 24hrs. On balance, the tone across markets has remained positive. US equities edged up again (S&P500 +0.3%), the US yield curve flattened a little as 2yr rates dipped (-4bps...

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28 Oct 2026

Fed stays on hold as officials await more information

As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged this afternoon, as policymakers await more data on the direction of the economy and inflation before tightening further. In a brief statement setting out the decision, officials acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty, but pointed to a “strong pace” of economic activity, “resilient” domestic spending, “robust” investment, and “strong” productivity growth. Job gains, they added, are keeping pace with the expansion in the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little. Most importantly, perhaps, they noted that “inflation remains elevated”, and said “The accumulation of more information will help the Committee...

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26 Oct 2026

Swings & roundabouts

• Positive vibes. Risk sentiment improved overnight. But earnings reports from tech stocks may generate vol. this week. AUD & NZD drifted a bit lower.• Macro pulse. Australian Q3 CPI due (Weds). RBNZ expected to hike (Weds). US Fed, BoJ, & ECB also meeting this week. Q3 US GDP also on the radar. Global Trends A few push-pull forces washed through markets at the start of the new week, but on net sentiment improved a little compared to the recent torrid spell. US equities recorded solid gains with the tech sector leading the way (S&P500 +0.7%, NASDAQ +0.8%). More bursts...

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