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Shifting interest rate expectations

• Positive trends. Risk sentiment remained positive on Friday. US & European equities rose, as did cyclical currencies like the NZD & AUD.• AU/NZ factors. After last week’s AU CPI & signals from the RBNZ, markets are toying with the idea the next move in AU & NZ rates may be up not down.• Event Radar. Australia Q3 GDP is out (Weds). In the US, focus should be on the ISM indices, ADP employment, & other labour market indicators. Global Trends It was a quiet end to last week (and November) with the US Thanksgiving Holiday period depressing trading activity....

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Currency markets grapple with Hassett’s rise as Fed chair candidate, along with UK budget chaos

Currencies are trading on a mixed footing this morning as investors pivot from expecting some Federal Reserve easing to anticipating too much. The dollar slumped, equity markets rallied, and yield curves shifted in yesterday’s session when Bloomberg reported that Kevin Hassett had become the front-runner in the race to replace Jerome Powell at the head of the world’s most powerful central bank. Hassett—now heading the National Economic Council and once a senior Fed official—is regarded as a capable economist, but also as someone more inclined to heed the president’s call for lower rates, even at the risk of stoking longer-term...

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RBNZ & AU CPI in focus

• Upbeat vibes. US equities rose while bond yields dipped. USD softer. Run of weak US data supported the case for another US Fed rate cut in December.• RBNZ meeting. NZD ticks up ahead of RBNZ decision. Another cut expected with markets looking for a 25bp move. Is the easing cycle almost over?• AU CPI. First full monthly CPI report out. Data could be volatile the next few months. Will it reinforce the case for the RBA to hold steady from here? Global Trends The more upbeat sentiment across markets continued overnight with a mix of macro and geopolitical news...

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Optimism returns as ‘Fed put’ comes back into play

Financial markets are back in recovery mode and Nasdaq is coming off its best day in six months as growing evidence of a “Fed put” boosts risk appetite. Index futures are pointing to further gains, Treasury yields are down across the curve, and the dollar is losing altitude after Federal Reserve officials expressed deepening concern about labour market softness, prompting a recovery in technology stocks and encouraging investors to set aside—at least for now—worries about stretched valuations. Markets are pricing in a nearly 80-percent chance of a December rate cut—up from less than 30 percent only a week ago—after New...

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Risk appetite turns fragile, markets reverse some gains

The dollar is slipping from its highs, Treasury yields are inching lower, and stock market indices are retrenching as investors trim exposures to the technology sector amid an ongoing retreat from speculative asset classes. With US markets closed Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday and likely thinly-populated on Black Friday, traders are working to compress position adjustments into the first three days of the week, and price action is accelerating across the foreign exchange markets, extending a broader rise in measures of implied volatility. Expectations for a cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting jumped spectacularly on Friday morning, weakening the...

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