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Powell Turns Dovish in Jackson Hole, Triggering Dollar Plunge

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that the central bank will soon resume cutting interest rates in a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium this morning. “The balance of risks appears to be shifting,” Powell said at the central bank’s annual gathering in the Grand Teton National Park this morning, “In the near term, risks to inflation are tilted to the upside, and risks to employment to the downside—a challenging situation”. “Nonetheless, with policy in restrictive territory, the baseline outlook and the shifting balance of risks may warrant adjusting our policy stance”. In his last appearance...

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US Rate Cut Expectations Tumble Ahead of Jackson Hole

The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a two-week high after yesterday’s hotter-than-anticipated activity data triggered a dramatic reappraisal of the Federal Reserve’s expected easing trajectory, lowering expectations for a clear rate-cutting message from chair Jerome Powell at this morning’s economic symposium in Jackson Hole. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are holding steady around the 4.33-percent mark, equity futures are setting a course toward an advance at the open, and most major currencies are holding just below technically-important levels as traders await further clarity before pushing them lower. US private sector activity expanded at the fastest rate recorded so far this year...

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What will Chair Powell say?

• Cautious tone. Hawkish Fed soundbites & positive US data saw yields tick higher. US equities slipped back. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Fed speak. Chair Powell speaks at Jackson Hole tonight. Speech should generate some volatility & set the tone for next week’s trading as well.• Chair Powell. Market pricing more ‘dovish’ than the Fed’s view. Will Chair Powell lean against aggressive expectations or endorse them? Global Trends The cautious tone continued across markets overnight. Nervousness about tonight’s speech by US Fed Chair Powell at the annual Jackson Hole event (12am AEST) was compounded by ‘hawkish’ soundbites...

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Outlook Improves As Global Private Sector Activity Rebounds

A hint of cautious optimism is creeping into currency markets this morning after a raft of activity gauges suggested that the global private sector is proving surprisingly resilient in the face of the US trade onslaught. The dollar is trading sideways, yields are up slightly, and North American equity futures are pointing to continued selling pressure, but this appears largely contained in the technology sector, with broader measures looking relatively stable. The euro and British pound are both holding steady against the dollar after preliminary August purchasing manager indices popped higher, outperforming expectations for a modest improvement. In the euro...

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Currency Markets Steady As Traders Await Fed Communications

It’s quiet. Too quiet. Most major currency pairs remain trapped in tight price ranges this morning as volumes fall, but the dollar is firming slightly as traders hedge themselves against an unexpectedly-hawkish message from Jerome Powell at Friday’s meeting in Jackson Hole, and Treasury yields are pushing modestly higher. Although technology stocks are paring their losses after yesterday’s swoon, broader equity indices look set to print slightly lower at the open. The British pound is almost unchanged even after inflation climbed to an 18-month high, topping market forecasts and seemingly complicating the Bank of England’s easing plans. According to an...

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