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Dollar ascends after hawkish Fed decision

Good morning. Risk sentiment is improving across the financial markets and the dollar is holding near a seven-week high after the Federal Reserve fired the starting gun on a new monetary tightening cycle and oil prices pulled back, easing tensions in bond markets. In yesterday’s unanimous decision, the Fed’s rate-setting committee raised borrowing costs by a quarter of a percentage point, saying the move would help return inflation to target in a “timelier” way. Chair Kevin Warsh pinned the decision on a strong economy, a stubbornly slow disinflation process, and geopolitical tensions that are lifting commodity prices—appearing to signal that...

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Hawks in the Fed nest

• Fed hike. A ‘hawkish’ US Fed rate rise. Forecasts point to more ‘tightening’ later this year. US equities dip. USD firmer. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot.• Macro pulse. US retail sales stronger than expected. US Fed has more work to do. BoE tonight & BoJ tomorrow. RBA predicted to hike rates later this month. Global Trends Economic events in the US were in focus overnight with a strong retail sales report compounded by a ‘hawkish’ interest rate hike by the Federal Reserve. US retail sales grew 1.2% in August, a positive signal about broader macro momentum given...

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Fed hikes rates, signals more to come

As had been widely expected, the Federal Reserve hiked interest rates and telegraphed at least one additional move this year as policymakers grapple with rising inflation risks — putting the central bank on a hawkish footing that should help stabilise the dollar. After two days of discussion, the Federal Open Market Committee voted unanimously to raise the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.75 and 4.00%, matching market expectations that had built after August’s strong jobs and inflation reports. In a brief statement setting out the decision, the committee again acknowledged persistently-high uncertainty but noted that economic activity...

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Tension rises ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve Day to all who observe. The dollar is holding firm, with investors and economists overwhelmingly convinced the Fed will raise rates for the first time in more than three years, amid a surge in global energy prices and a jump in long-term yields. Oil remains above $100 a barrel after Saudi Arabia, after coming under sustained attack from Iran and its allies, suspended loading at its Yanbu port and cancelled some shipments to Europe. Ten-year Treasury yields are holding just below 5%, and equity futures are edging higher ahead of the North American open....

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Will the US Fed rattle markets?

• Risk wobbles. Higher oil prices & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD drift back. AUD ~1.5% from last weeks peak.• US rates. US Fed in focus with a hike expected tomorrow (4am AEST). But Fed may struggle to be more ‘hawkish’ than what is priced. USD volatility likely. Global Trends Cyclical assets remain on the backfoot with the combination of higher oil prices (brent crude has edged up towards ~US$109/brl, levels last traded in mid-May with the re-escalation in the US/Iran conflict showing no signs of improvement) and rising bond yields dampening sentiment. The inflation...

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