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Dollar softens as policy uncertainty climbs

Equity markets are lower and the dollar is weaker against all of its major counterparts after the US cycled through four different tariff frameworks between Friday morning and Saturday afternoon, underscoring the policy uncertainty facing the world’s largest economy. After the Supreme Court struck down President Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, he moved to replace the measures with a flat-rate 10 percent levy on all US imports under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, which he then raised to 15 percent on Saturday. The new tariff, which is set to take effect tomorrow and...

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Tariff Whiplash

• US tariffs. US Supreme Court rules against Pres. Trump. US tariffs being rejigged. USD softer. AUD & NZD a little firmer. AUD still near multi-year peak.• Macro trends. Over medium-term reworking tariff policies may be US growth & USD supportive. This week AU inflation data due. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends US tariff developments were in focus on Friday and the weekend. The US Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). The 6-3 decision was somewhat anticipated given President Trump’s move to bypass Congress (which has control over...

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Trump raises tariffs, again

Only a day after the Supreme Court struck down his tariff regime, and less than 18 hours after signing an executive order implementing new 10 percent tariffs on all US trading partners, Donald Trump has announced he will increase the levy to 15 percent. In a post on his social media platform, the president said after a “thorough, detailed, and complete review of the ridiculous, poorly written, and extraordinarily anti-American” court decision, he is “effective immediately, raising the 10 [percent] Worldwide Tariff on Countries, many of which have been ‘ripping’ the U.S. off for decades, without retribution (until I came...

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Trump implements new 10% global tariffs

US president Donald Trump has said he will sign an order imposing 10-percent tariffs on all global imports later today, replacing many of the levies ruled illegal by the Supreme Court this morning. In a press conference punctuated by accusations of foreign meddling in American courts, the president said the new duties will be implemented under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974, implying that there can be no carveouts for specific product groupings, and that the government will have 150 days to gain Congressional approval before they expire. During that time, Trump said his administration would begin investigations...

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Supreme Court strikes down Trump’s tariff regime, doesn’t rule on refunds

The Supreme Court of the United States this morning ruled against Donald Trump’s use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act to impose tariffs, but declined to rule on firm’s eligibility for refunds, meaning that importers will be left to pursue claims through the Court of International Trade. At first glance, the ruling should reduce tail risks for market participants. The threat of abrupt and unilateral changes in US tariff rates has been a persistent source of volatility premia in foreign exchange, particularly for export-sensitive currencies. By narrowing the scope for executive action and lengthening the policy transmission lag, the...

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