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USD

31 Jul 2025

US jobs report in focus

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped back & USD ticked up overnight. AUD & NZD remain on the backfoot. JPY weaker after some BoJ comments.• US data. US jobs report out tonight. There has been a tendency for non-farm payrolls to exceed analyst forecasts the past few months. Will this continue?• AUD trends. The unfolding pull-back in the AUD isn’t unusual at this time of year. Late-July/August is typically a negative period for the AUD. Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets overnight with US and European equities slipping back, bond yields consolidating, and the USD ticking up a bit further. The...

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31 Jul 2025

US Inflation Accelerates, Spending Growth Slows

The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure exhibited signs of acceleration last month even as personal spending growth slowed, providing more evidence of a “stagflation-lite” situation in the US economy. Data released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis this morning showed the core personal consumption expenditures index—which excludes food and energy costs—rising 0.3 percent in June from the prior month. On a year-over-year basis, core prices rose 2.8 percent, slightly narrowing the gap between the Fed Funds rate and underlying inflation. The overall personal consumption expenditures index also rose 0.3 percent relative to the prior month, and was up 2.6 percent...

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30 Jul 2025

USD jolt

• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns at this time of year. Risk of more to come. Global Trends A run of positive US centric events boosted US bond yields and the USD overnight. Firstly, the latest batch of US data extended the recent...

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30 Jul 2025

Fed Keeps Rates On Hold Even As Consensus Breaks Down

The Federal Reserve downgraded its assessment of the economy even as it held interest rates steady for a fifth straight meeting, and stopped short of executing the sort of communications pivot that might have prepared markets for an imminent rate cut. The Federal Open Market Committee voted in a split 9-2 decision to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 4.25 to 4.50 percent—a level reached in December after a series of cuts in the second half of 2024—with Trump appointees Michelle Bowman and Christopher Waller dissenting from the majority. This is highly unusual—the last time two...

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30 Jul 2025

US Economy Rebounds, But Underlying Indicators Point to Slowdown Ahead

The world’s biggest economy staged a snappish recovery in the second quarter as tariff front-running effects were unwound, but signs of moderating growth were clearly visible, suggesting that momentum is falling off. Real gross domestic product climbed at a 3-percent seasonally-adjusted annual pace from April through June, reversing a -0.5-percent drop in the first three months of the year, and topping consensus estimates. Forecasters surveyed by Bloomberg had, on average, expected the economy to grow at a 2.6-percent rate in the second quarter. Net exports added 5 percentage points to the headline print after the sharpest decline on record in...

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