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USD

11 Dec 2025

Dollar holds post-Fed losses

The dollar is back on the defensive this morning as markets absorb yesterday’s unexpectedly-neutral Federal Reserve rate cut as well as a stumble in the overheated US tech complex ahead of next week’s cluster of event risks. Treasury yields are slightly lower across the curve, and traders are assigning a marginally higher probability to additional easing in 2026 after yesterday’s decision landed with a less hawkish tone than many had anticipated. Equity futures are pointing to early losses after Oracle delivered underwhelming cloud-computing results even as it pledged to ramp up capital spending—reinforcing investor concerns about the durability of the...

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10 Dec 2025

Hold the line

• US Fed. Another US rate cut announced. But guidance wasn’t as ‘hawkish’ as feared. Positive for sentiment. USD weaker. AUD close to year-to-date peak.• AU jobs. Australian employment data due today. Monthly figures are volatile. Another solid report would reinforce views RBA may hike rates in early-2026. Global Trends The US Fed meeting was the market focal point overnight. As expected, the US Fed delivered another 25bp rate cut, lowering the policy target range to 3.50-3.75%. This was ~90% factored in ahead of the event. Notably, the Fed’s updated guidance and economic projections were little different from last time...

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10 Dec 2025

Federal Reserve cuts rates, telegraphs January pause

The Federal Reserve cut rates for a third consecutive time this afternoon, and opened the door to a January pause amid growing uncertainty on the economy’s underlying trajectory. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by a surprisingly balanced 9-to-3 margin to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran against dissented from the majority in favour of a bigger move, while Austan Goolsbee and Jeffery Schmid supported staying on hold. Markets had feared a more profound divergence would be on display, given that the October...

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10 Dec 2025

Currencies flatline into central bank decisions

Happy Fed Day to those who celebrate. Global risk assets are drifting lower, yields are a touch firmer, and the dollar is trading in the middle of its recent trading range as investors await what is widely expected to be a third consecutive “hawkish cut” from the Federal Reserve this afternoon. Data published yesterday showed US labour markets cooling, but not at an alarming rate. On the positive side of the ledger, the number of job openings surged to 7.67 million in October from 7.23 million in August, but this may have been driven by pre-holiday staffing increases. The hires...

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09 Dec 2025

Hawks in the nest

• Consolidation. US equities tread water ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision. The USD index ticked up. AUD outperformed due to RBA rhetoric.• RBA shift. No change in rates yesterday but there were ‘hawkish’ signals. Inflation risks have changed. February meeting looks ‘live’ for a rate hike.• US Fed. Another rate cut expected. Focus will be on the Fed’s guidance. A ‘cautious’ tone about more near-term rate reductions may see the USD lift. Global Trends Modest moves across most asset classes overnight as traders marked time ahead of tomorrow’s US Fed decision (Thurs 6am AEDT) and Chair Powell’s press conference...

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