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USD

RBA U-turn

• Holding on. No change in rates by US Fed. US equities & bond yields consolidate. USD index ticks up, but AUD outperformance continues.• RBA hikes. Stronger CPI boosted RBA rate rise bets. Hike next week ~70% priced, 2 moves baked in by year-end. AUD up at Feb ’23 levels. Global Trends Markets were calmer overnight compared to the bursts of volatility that have washed through recently. US equities consolidated with the S&P500 up near record highs while US bond yields were range bound with the 10yr rate close to its 1-year average (now ~4.24%). In FX, the USD index...

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Fed holds rates in broadly-supported decision, shifts statement language into neutral

The Federal Reserve left rates unchanged this afternoon, and subtly upgraded its assessment of labour markets and growth, disappointing those expecting a more dovish bias and lending the dollar some much-needed support. In the widely-expected decision, the Federal Open Market Committee voted by a consensus-driven 10-to-2 margin to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate between 3.50 and 3.75 percent. Trump appointee Stephen Miran again dissented from the majority in favour of a bigger move, joined by Christopher Waller, who is seen as a potential candidate for Chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends. In a tweak to the...

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Dollar stages half-hearted recovery attempt

Good morning. The almighty greenback is struggling to climb off a four-year low after US president Donald Trump said he didn’t think it had fallen too far, remarking that he could make it “go up or go down like a yo-yo,” but that it’s “doing great”—comments widely read as an endorsement of further weakness. A softer dollar could support US exports and raise import prices*, consistent with Trump’s aim of narrowing trade deficits, but it also risks generating market dislocations and raising borrowing costs if real-money investors redirect capital elsewhere. Treasury yields are holding firm, equity futures are setting up...

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USD slide continues

• Weaker USD. US equities rose again while the USD remains under pressure. EUR at a multi-year high. AUD touched highest point since Q1 2023.• Macro trends. Q4 Australian CPI out today. Will it help or hinder RBA rate hike expectations? US Fed meets tomorrow. No changes anticipated. Global Trends A few of the recent major market themes continued overnight with European/US equities rising and the USD remaining under downward pressure. More specifically, the US S&P500 (+0.5%) reached a record high while the tech-focused NASDAQ jumped up 0.9% to be within a whisker of its historic peak. US bond yields...

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Dollar plunges as Trump downplays recent weakness

The dollar is tumbling through technical barriers across most major currency pairs after US president Donald Trump told reporters “I could have it go up or down like a yo-yo,” and that he’s not concerned about its recent decline, saying “Look at the business we’re doing. The dollar’s doing great”. “If you look at China and Japan, I used to fight like hell with them, because they always wanted to devalue,” he said, but “it’s hard to compete when they devalue”. The president’s comments suggest that recent (rumoured) moves to support Japanese currency intervention—intended to raise the value of the...

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