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USD

16 Apr 2025

US pain points

• US trends. US equities lost ground, as did bond yields & the USD. This helped currencies like EUR, AUD, & NZD lift. USD/JPY at multi-month lows.• Central banks. BoC surprised by keeping rates steady. US Fed Chair Powell indicated tariff impacts leave policymakers in a difficult spot.• Macro events. NZ CPI a bit hotter than forecast. China growth stronger. AU jobs report due today. ECB also expected to cut interest rates again. Global Trends A ‘risk off’ tone returned to US markets overnight with equities losing altitude (S&P500 -2.2%, NASDAQ -3.1%) and bond yields declining for the third straight...

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15 Apr 2025

In the eye of the storm?

• Calmer markets. European equities rose, while US markets gave back initial gains. EUR lost a bit of ground. AUD & NZD edged higher.• Tariff news. Tariff-related developments somewhat negative. EU/US talks haven’t found common ground. China still pushing back. US data soft.• Macro events. China GDP out today. In the US retail sales & speech by Fed Chair Powell in focus tonight. AU jobs report due tomorrow, as is NZ CPI. Global Trends Compared to the past few weeks markets were relatively calm overnight. While European equities rose (EuroStoxx600 +1.6%), the US indices gave back initial gains to end...

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14 Apr 2025

Tariff Confusion Leaves Markets Rudderless

Financial markets are staging a modest relief rally after the Trump administration seemed to quietly grant a partial tariff carveout to smartphones and consumer electronics – helping ease fears of a sharp rise in US consumer prices. North American equity futures are setting up for an advance at the open, Treasury yields are incrementally lower, and the dollar is cruising toward a fifth day of losses. Some of Asia’s biggest export categories will be excluded from the government’s new tariff regime, according to a notice posted late Friday night by US Customs and Border Protection, suggesting that the administration is...

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13 Apr 2025

USD remains under pressure

• Upbeat tone. US equities rose on Friday, so did commodities. This, & the decline in the USD helped the AUD & NZD extend their upswings.• Tariff news. US announced various electronics imported from China will be ‘exempt’ from higher tariffs. But it only looks like a temporary reprieve.• Event Radar. China GDP, US retail sales, the BoC & ECB meetings, & a speech by Chair Powell are due this week. As is the AU jobs report & NZ CPI. Global Trends US tariff news remains in the driver’s seat. Sentiment improved in Friday’s US trade with equities pushing higher,...

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11 Apr 2025

Extreme Turbulence Grips Global Markets

Measures of financial stress are easing this morning after an absolutely wild night in global markets. The dollar is consolidating its losses after enduring something resembling a “flash crash” as Asian markets opened yesterday evening, the S&P 500 is recovering from a circa-3-percent move, and ten-year Treasury yields are stabilising near 4.8 percent after rising by the most in a week since the late eighties. The trade war between the United States and China is still escalating. On Wednesday, President Trump said he was imposing a 125-percent tariff on imports from China, and the White House yesterday clarified that this...

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