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USD

10 Mar 2026

Oil volatility & AUD outperforms

• Oil swings. Pull-back in oil prices has supported risk sentiment. Will it last? Situation in Middle East remains fluid. More volatility likely over period ahead.• RBA Hawks. AUD/USD at top of its range. RBA Dep. Gov ‘hawkish’ yesterday. Will it move next week? More than 2 hikes now priced in by September. Global Trends After a torrid end to last week and negative start on Monday sentiment has improved over the past few days. Volatility has continued with the situation in the Middle East still tricky to navigate. However, while there are still underlying issues in place traders (as...

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09 Mar 2026

Markets poised to unwind war premium as Trump signals Iran endgame

Crude oil benchmarks are under intense selling pressure and currency markets are reversing direction after US president Donald Trump told CBS News “I think the war is very complete, pretty much”. Trump said Iran had made a “big mistake” in choosing Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s son Mojtaba to be the country’s next supreme leader, warning “I don’t know if it’s going to last. I think they made a mistake,” but stopped short of repeating the sort of regime change demands made earlier in the US-Israeli campaign against Iran. “They have no navy, no communications, they’ve got no air force. Their missiles...

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09 Mar 2026

Soaring crude prices wreak havoc in financial markets

Foreign exchange markets are in upheaval after Iran war fears drove global crude prices nearly 30 percent higher over the weekend—but conditions could stabilise in coming hours if G7 countries tap their strategic petroleum reserves. According to the Financial Times, finance ministers from the major advanced economies are now discussing a co-ordinated release of oil reserves, with an announcement expected this morning. The dollar is giving back some of its weekend gains but—along with the Canadian dollar—is still up from its late-February levels, having climbed against its more vulnerable energy-importing rivals. Brent crude surged past $130 a barrel when markets...

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08 Mar 2026

Oil price worries intensify

• Macro worries. Growth/inflation concerns due to the jump in oil were compounded by a weak US jobs report. AUD remains on the backfoot.• Oil risks. Production cuts across Middle East creating supply risks. Oil at multi-year high. USD has become positively correlated to oil the past few years. Global Trends It was a negative end to a rather torrid week for markets on Friday. Developments in the Middle East and oil prices remain front of mind, while a weaker than anticipated US jobs report and tepid retail sales compounded investor nervousness. Oil prices jumped again with Brent Crude tracking...

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06 Mar 2026

Non-farm payrolls disappoint, combining with higher oil to unleash stagflation fears

The US job creation engine decelerated sharply last month, partially reversing market bets on a more hawkish policy stance from the Federal Reserve this year. According to data just released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 92,000 jobs were lost in February—representing a major downside surprise relative to the 55,000-consensus forecast—while the previous two months were revised down by a total 69,000 positions, bringing the three-month average pace of job creation to 6,000, well below the 73,000 recorded ahead of the update. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.4 percent from 4.3 percent in January, missing market expectations for a...

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