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USD

27 Apr 2026

Hopeful markets

• Upbeat vibes. Reports Iran proposed reopening Strait of Hormuz supported sentiment. Equities rose. AUD near top of its range. But oil markets sceptical.• Event radar. US/Iran still in focus. Australian Q1 CPI due (Weds), as is US GDP (Thurs night). Five central banks meet including US Fed (Thurs morning). Global Trends Mixed fortunes across markets at the start of the new week. On the back of reports Iran, via Pakistani mediators, put forward a new proposal for reopening the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the US ending its naval blockade, a few short-sighted asset classes perked up. US...

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23 Apr 2026

Markets retreat as battle lines in Mideast conflict harden

Financial markets are back in risk-off mode as Middle East peace talks show signs of stalling, with both sides continuing to enforce blockades on shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Brent crude is holding above $100 once again, equity futures are setting up for a pullback at the open, and the dollar is catching a bid as traders revert to safe-haven and terms-of-trade playbooks, selling the currencies most exposed to an energy price shock. The euro is trading sharply weaker after economic activity unexpectedly contracted in early April as stagflationary conditions took hold. The eurozone flash composite purchasing manager index...

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22 Apr 2026

Confused Iran headlines keep markets hemmed in

Good morning. Markets are struggling to find direction as conflicting signals on the war in Iran leave traders rudderless. Vice President JD Vance yesterday postponed a trip to Pakistan after Iranian officials reportedly refused to meet with him, citing “unreasonable demands” from the US, while President Trump extended today’s ceasefire deadline to allow Tehran to present a “unified proposal,” even as he directed the Navy to maintain its blockade against Iranian shipping. At least two cargo vessels have been confirmed struck off the Iranian coast, with reports of a third attack in the last hour. Treasury yields are edging higher,...

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21 Apr 2026

Will they or won’t they

• Market wobbles. Fears of a re-escalation in Iran dampened sentiment overnight. President Trump extended the ceasefire this morning.• FX moves. USD firmer due to higher oil & strong US retail sales. NZD holds up because of NZ CPI. AUD lost some ground. More bursts of vol. expected. Global Trends A few more Middle East related gyrations across markets overnight. Risk sentiment was on the backfoot for most of the trading session on fears there might be a re-escalation of the conflict given the ceasefire deadline was approaching, US Vice President Vance’s trip to Pakistan had been put on hold,...

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21 Apr 2026

US consumer spending stays strong, supporting yields and the dollar

American households seemingly remained undaunted by the war in Iran last month, spending more than expected even as measures of consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, so-called “control group” retail sales—with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded—rose 0.7% in March, beating forecasts set at 0.2% and climbing at a solid 4.8% pace in year-over-year terms. Total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 1.7% on a month-over-month basis, following a 0.7% gain in the prior month. Ahead of the release, economists were projecting a 1.4% monthly...

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