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US Fed shifting course?

• US data. Solid US retail sales underpinned sentiment. Upshift in US interest rate expectations & weaker GBP boosted the USD. AUD slipped back.• Macro pulse. Markets toying with the idea the US Fed may hike interest rates. More US/Iran related volatility possible. China data batch due Monday. Global Trends A mixed performance across asset classes overnight, though there was a hint of US outperformance on the back of positive US economic data. US consumer spending (the engine room of the economy) remains resilient in the face of higher gasoline prices with retail sales growing 0.5% in April after a...

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Yuan step at a time

It has become a cliché to say that America and China operate on entirely different historical timescales—but sometimes clichés contain a grain of truth. As Donald Trump meets Xi Jinping this week, talk has turned to the possibility of a currency accord, akin to the Plaza Agreement of the 1980s, in which China agrees to let the renminbi appreciate. Anyone expecting an immediate breakthrough would do well to remember that Beijing measures progress in decades, not news cycles. On paper, the renminbi looks firm, trading near a nominal three-year high as today’s state banquets get underway. China no longer intervenes...

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Trading ranges compress as newsflow slows

Good morning. Price action in currency markets is slowing to a crawl and the dollar is consolidating yesterday’s gains as traders keep their powder dry amid a lack of clear directional catalysts. Brent crude futures are holding near $106 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate is flirting with $102 after India said one of its vessels had come under attack off the coast of Oman and multiple sources reported an Iranian seizure of a ship anchored off the United Arab Emirates. Equity indices are advancing on reports that the US will permit Nvidia to sell its second-most advanced artificial intelligence...

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Oil prices resume climb, inflation fears stalk global bond markets

Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end to “Operation Epic Fury” when a ceasefire took effect in early April, with the expectation that a new designation would reset the 60-day legal clock requiring congressional authorisation for hostilities. Intelligence assessments publicised by the New York Times** suggest Iran retains roughly...

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US inflation pulse reawakening

• Market wobbles. Faster US inflation dampened the mood. US equities dipped, bond yields rose. USD firmer. AUD drifted back but still at elevated levels.• AU Budget. A lot of the big ticket items already known. More spending restraint would have been helpful. RBA still has more work to do in its inflation fight. Global Trends A few renewed wobbles across markets overnight. There have been no fresh developments related to the US/Iran conflict with hopes of a long-lasting peace deal fading and the Strait of Hormuz still effectively shut. Added to that, the economic aftermath of what has taken...

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