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The world’s most crowded trade

This afternoon’s first-quarter results from Nvidia are unlikely to cool the artificial intelligence frenzy. In nominal terms, net income almost certainly grew to a level no public company has ever surpassed. But the chipmaker’s dazzling numbers—and the reaction felt across asset classes—will also illuminate a risk that ought to concern investors and businesses far beyond Silicon Valley: the sheer concentration of global wealth in American technology stocks, and the exposure of the rest of the world to any stumble. Start with scale. American equities are now worth—on paper, at least—$76trn, an amount approaching 70% of world output*. A decade ago...

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Risk appetite improves ahead of Nvidia earnings

A bruising multi-day selloff in government bonds is showing signs of exhaustion this morning as investors train attention on Nvidia’s first-quarter results after the closing bell—an event that has become one of the most reliable positive catalysts for risk appetite in global markets. US equity futures are pointing to a tentative recovery after three days of losses, and the dollar is surrendering some of the gains achieved in recent sessions as rising Treasury yields have widened rate differentials against the euro and other major currencies. Oil prices are down roughly 2% amid a relative lull in Iran war headlines, and...

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AUD still on the backfoot

• Market wobbles. Inflation concerns & rising bond yields dampen sentiment. USD firmer. AUD & NZD underperform. AUD now ~2.2% from recent high.• Data flow. UK CPI inflation out today. FOMC minutes due tomorrow. Australian labour report also out on Thursday. Will holiday timing impact the jobs data? Global Trends After a brief respite there was another bout of ‘risk-off’ sentiment across markets overnight. Concerns about inflation and fiscal positions remain with oil prices elevated (brent crude is up at ~US$111/brl) and no real movement with respect to an end to the Middle East conflict or reopening of the Strait...

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Markets turn cautious as Iran uncertainties remain

Good morning. Oil prices are edging lower and the dollar is strengthening after President Trump said he had suspended a planned bombardment of Iran, leaving market hopes for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz effectively in limbo. “We were getting ready to do a very major attack tomorrow, and I put it off for a little while, hopefully maybe forever, but possibly for a little while, because we’ve had very big discussions with Iran, and we’ll see what they amount to,” Trump said. In a social media post earlier in the day, he told the US military to be...

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Risk wobbles weigh on the AUD

• Inflation worries. Higher oil prices & central bank rethink push up bond yields. Equities dipped on Friday. USD firmer. AUD & NZD fall back.• Macro pulse. Concerns about the global economy & inflation remain. China data due today. Monthly Australian jobs report released later this week. Global Trends A few wobbles across cyclical assets at the end of last week with European and US equities losing ground, industrial metals prices falling, and the USD strengthening on Friday. The US S&P500 shed ~1.2%, its largest one-day slide since late-March. Copper (-4.5%) and iron ore (-1.3%) also went backwards. By contrast,...

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