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USD

18 Jun 2026

Fed aftershocks continue to ripple across financial markets

Good morning. Oil prices are nearing pre-war levels as supertankers begin moving through the Strait of Hormuz, and the dollar is trading near a one-year high after the Federal Reserve delivered a “hawkish hold” in Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair. Both of the major global crude benchmarks are trading just above levels reached in the immediate aftermath of US and Israeli strikes on Iran in early March. Brent is changing hands at $78 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $75 after President Donald Trump* and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian signed a 14-point memorandum extending April’s ceasefire by another...

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17 Jun 2026

Dollar surges after Fed turns dramatically more hawkish, wrong-footing markets

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, stripped forward guidance from its communications, and signalled a dramatic hawkish shift in its reaction function at Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as chair—confounding expectations for a smooth transition from the Powell era. In significant revisions to the statement, officials removed anything resembling a forward policy outlook, including the easing bias that had previously drawn dissents from three regional governors. In an extraordinarily-brief passage, the committee described economic activity as expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty tied in part to the Middle East conflict, pointed to strong productivity growth and capital investment,...

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17 Jun 2026

Markets steady ahead of Fed decision

Good morning, and happy Federal Reserve day to all who celebrate. Markets are on tenterhooks ahead of Kevin Warsh’s first meeting as Federal Reserve chair, with Treasury yields firming, the dollar advancing, and most major currency pairs trapped in tight ranges. After a copy of the US-Iran ‘memorandum of understanding’ was released by major news outlets, both global oil benchmarks are edging below $80 a barrel as traders bet on a full resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of July, with Gulf output expected to recover to near pre-war levels by early October. The...

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16 Jun 2026

Relief rally slows ahead of Fed decision

Good morning. The dollar is flat, Treasury yields are edging lower across the curve, and oil prices continue to decline as traders await details of the US-Iran peace deal ahead of its signing on Friday and brace for turbulence around tomorrow’s Federal Reserve decision. Brent crude is changing hands at $81 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate at $78, with both benchmarks down nearly 11% this month. Currency market reaction to the weekend’s ceasefire agreement has been surprisingly muted, with most major pairs moving less than a third of a percent since the news broke. To some extent, this reflects...

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16 Jun 2026

RBA: Will they move again?

After delivering three consecutive interest rate hikes to start the year, as expected, the RBA kept the cash rate steady at 4.35% today. The decision was “unanimous” as the RBA Board steps into a “hold-and-assess phase” after recalibrating the level of interest rates to a more “restrictive” setting over Q1/Q2 2026. According to the RBA, inflation is still “too high”, yet at the same time financial conditions have “tightened”, there are signs “growth in consumer spending is slowing”, momentum in the housing market “has shifted”, and unemployment was “higher than expected” in the recent jobs report (charts 1 and 2)....

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