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USD

12 May 2026

US inflation slightly exceeds expectations, underpinning the dollar

Underlying consumer prices climbed by slightly more than expected in the United States last month, reinforcing the case for a tightening bias from the Federal Reserve, and putting modest upward pressure on the dollar. According to data published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics this morning, the core consumer price index—with highly-volatile food and energy prices excluded—climbed 0.4% month-over-month, rising from the 0.2% pace set a month earlier, and was up 2.8% year-over-year. This topped consensus estimates among economists polled by the major data providers ahead of the release, which were set closer to the 2.7% mark. Headline prices rose...

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12 May 2026

Dollar grinds higher as inflation data looms and oil prices rise

Good morning and happy US inflation day to all who celebrate. The dollar is advancing and Treasury yields are edging higher in the run-up to the week’s most important data release at 8:30, which is expected to show prices rising 3.7% in the year to April—the fastest rate since 2023. Most major currencies—including the euro, Swiss franc, Canadian dollar, Japanese yen, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar—are down roughly a third of a percent against the greenback from yesterday’s close. Oil prices are on the ascent once again after President Trump called the latest Iranian peace proposal “garbage” and said...

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11 May 2026

US-Iran negotiations fall apart—again—leading to reversal in currency markets

The dollar is advancing against its major rivals, buoyed by Friday’s stronger-than-expected payrolls report and yet another collapse in US-Iran peace talks*. Days after the Trump administration triggered a relief rally in financial markets by dangling a peace offer, Tehran yesterday released a response that reportedly demanded an end to the US naval blockade, a lifting of sanctions, a cessation of military operations, and formal recognition of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz—while deferring the nuclear question entirely. President Trump dismissed these terms as “totally unacceptable”. Front-month crude prices are up 2.5% from Friday’s close—with Brent trading at $103...

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08 May 2026

US job creation remains strong, supporting yields and the dollar. Canada’s … doesn’t.

US job creation held up and the unemployment rate held steady last month, further reinforcing market expectations for a prolonged period on the sidelines from the Federal Reserve. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, 115,000 roles were added in April—representing an overshoot relative to the 65,000-job consensus forecast—while the jobless rate stayed at 4.3%. The two previous months were revised lower by a modest 16,000 positions, and average hourly earnings climbed 0.2% month-over-month, slowing slightly from the pace set in the prior month, but rising 3.6% year-over-year—exceeding the 3.3% pace of headline inflation over the same period. We suspect...

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08 May 2026

Escalation in Middle East leaves volatility levels unchanged

Good morning, and happy Friday. The dollar is heading for a second week of losses and oil prices are drifting lower after yesterday’s exchange of fire in the Strait of Hormuz failed to shift Donald Trump’s rhetorical stance, reinforcing investor confidence in the US eventually finding an off-ramp in the conflict. The president said the ceasefire agreed in early April remained in effect, describing the situation as a “trifle” after Tehran launched a series of missile, drone, and boat-swarm attacks on US warships in the Gulf, prompting retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets and port facilities. Brent crude is trading...

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