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USD

04 Nov 2025

Market wobbles return

• Market swings. A bout of risk aversion overnight. Valuation concerns weighed on equities. Bond yields dipped. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• RBA hold. No change in rates by RBA yesterday. Updated forecasts & guidance suggest there is a chance no more cuts are delivered, in our view.• US data. US Government Shutdown still in place. Private sector stats in focus. ADP employment & services ISM due tonight. This may generate more vol. Global Trends A burst of “risk off” negative market sentiment has washed through global markets over the past 24hrs. A modestly weak day yesterday in...

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04 Nov 2025

Markets flip into more cautious stance as easing hopes fade and correction fears grow

The almighty greenback is holding near a three-month high this morning as investors scale back their exposure to technology stocks and grapple with uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s next policy move. US equity markets are set to open lower after Palantir Technologies issued a somewhat-disappointing revenue forecast, risking the near-150-percent jump in its share price this year, and intensifying concerns about stretched valuations across the tech sector. Policy-sensitive Treasury yields are easing even after several officials—including Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco’s Mary Daly, and Chicago’s Austan Goolsbee—signaled a lack of conviction in a potential December rate cut, citing the evolving...

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03 Nov 2025

Dollar inches higher as markets keep driving through the fog

The dollar is starting November on a firm footing, edging higher against a basket of its major rivals after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell last week repeatedly warned markets against expecting more monetary easing in December. Over the past four sessions, front-end rate differentials have shifted slightly in favour of the greenback—enhancing its relative appeal—and strong earnings from a number of the biggest technology names have enhanced foreign investor interest in American equities, adding further support to the currency. The US government shutdown is now in its 34th day and will on Wednesday become the longest ever. With leaders showing...

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02 Nov 2025

RBA looks set to hold steady

• Upbeat tone. US equities end the week & month on positive footing. USD ticked higher. AUD & NZD drifted back. AUD a bit firmer on a few cross-rates.• RBA meeting. Given CPI RBA expected to hold (Tues). Near-term inflation forecasts to be revised up. Will RBA close the door on more cuts?• Event radar. In addition to the RBA, NZ jobs report due (Weds). In the US, official data may be delayed, so things like ADP employment are in focus. Global Trends It was a relatively quiet end to last week and October with modest net moves across most...

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30 Oct 2025

Price action slows across financial markets as investors digest mixed signals

Financial markets are turning more cautious this morning as traders process the implications of an unexpectedly-divided Federal Reserve decision, news of a tentative trade truce between the US and China, and a mixed slate of earnings from the world’s largest technology firms. The dollar is maintaining yesterday’s advance, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.06 percent after posting their biggest one-day gain since July, shares in Meta and Microsoft are selling off ahead of the open after both companies said they were increasing spending on artificial intelligence infrastructure, and Alphabet is gaining after it reported a stronger-than-expected performance in its...

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