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USD

10 Nov 2025

Shutdown hopes bolster risk appetite

The dollar is retreating and Treasury yields are slipping as the longest shutdown in American history shows signs of coming to an end. Trading volumes look light ahead of tomorrow’s holiday, but measures of risk appetite are improving and investors are moving out of safe havens like the Japanese yen and Swiss franc into economically-sensitive units like the Aussie, Canadian dollar, and Mexican peso after a group of Democrats crossed party lines to approve a bill that would provide funding through the end of January. Uncertainties still exist: a final vote in the Senate is needed to pass the measure...

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09 Nov 2025

US shutdown impacts showing

• Intra-day swings. More headline driven gyrations on Friday. US equities swung around. USD index a bit softer. NZD on backfoot. AUD a little higher.• US shutdown. Current US gov. shutdown longest in history. Macro impacts starting to show. Pressure on lawmakers to reach a deal is growing.• Event Radar. In Australia the monthly jobs report is due (Thurs). The China data batch is out (Fri). Several US Fed members also set to speak this week. Global Trends Intra-session market gyrations continued at the end of last week with US Government Shutdown newsflow in the driver’s seat. Thanks to a...

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07 Nov 2025

Canada adds more jobs than expected for a second month, loonie climbs

The Canadian economy again generated more jobs than anticipated last month, suggesting that the economy is beginning to shrug off the tariff shock. According to an update just published by Statistics Canada, 66,600 new positions were added in October and the unemployment rate dropped to 6.9 percent. Consensus estimates—which have become less reliable in recent months—had pointed to 5,000 new hires, with the jobless rate holding at 7.1 percent. 85,100 positions were added in part-time roles, while 18,500 were lost in full-time work. An average 27,200 full-time jobs were added over the last three months, while the part-time component has...

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06 Nov 2025

Dollar retreats as conflicting datapoints skew Fed expectations

The dollar is tumbling against most of its major rivals after a private-sector report showed employers slashing payrolls by far more than anticipated, raising market-implied odds on a third consecutive rate cut at the Federal Reserve’s December meeting. According to the Challenger, Gray, and Christmas job cut report—not typically a market-moving release—businesses laid off 153,074 people in October, up 175 percent from the 55,597 announced in the same month last year, and up sharply from the 54,064 announced in September. Policy-sensitive two-year Treasury yields are back below the 3.6-percent mark, equity futures are setting up for incremental gains at the...

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05 Nov 2025

Market mood improves

• Upbeat mood. Sentiment improved overnight. US equities & bond yields ticked up on the back of some positive data. AUD & NZD also rose.• US tariffs. Legality of President Trump’s tariffs is before the US Supreme Court. Market odds of a decision in Pres. Trump’s favour fell overnight.• Data flow. US Government Shutdown still in place. Official stats on hold. Bank of England could cut rates again tonight. US Fed members also speaking. Global Trends Sentiment rebounded overnight with the bout of risk aversion stemming from equity market valuation concerns across the tech/AI sectors fading. These issues remain in...

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