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USD

05 May 2026

RBA: Higher inflation & slower growth

The RBA continues to take few chances when it comes to the problematic domestic inflation trends with another interest rate hike announced today. This is the third consecutive meeting the RBA has tapped on the brakes with the latest 25bp increase moving the cash rate up to 4.35%. Policy settings have been recalibrated quickly. The interest rate ‘relief’ delivered last year has been unwound with the cash rate back at the ‘peak’ reached in the 2023/24 inflation fight. Today’s decision wasn’t unanimous with the RBA Board voting 8-1 in favour of a hike. It was a matter of when, not...

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05 May 2026

RBA hikes again. But it will come at a cost.

• Optimistic markets. Equities rose, oil dipped on positive US/Iran vibes. More volatility likely. USD softens. AUD whipped around by push/pull forces.• RBA hike. RBA announced its 3rd straight rate rise. Another hike more likely than not. But it will come at an economic cost. Growth set to slow sharply. Global Trends Sentiment about the situation in the Middle East has generated a few bursts of volatility over recent sessions. Following a deterioration in risk appetite yesterday indications the US/Iran ceasefire is holding eased fears overnight. US officials downplayed Iran’s actions stating that the targeting of warships and attacks on...

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05 May 2026

The US petrocurrency illusion

America produces more crude than anyone. That does not spare it—or the dollar—the consequences of an oil shock. A comforting narrative has taken hold in Washington. The shale revolution, which transformed America into the world’s largest producer of crude oil, is supposed to have insulated the country from the geopolitical convulsions that have long roiled energy markets. Since the war in Iran was launched at the end of February, Donald Trump has repeatedly suggested that higher prices are to America’s benefit, gesturing at the tankers loading up in American harbours as proof of the economic windfall. In foreign-exchange markets, the...

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05 May 2026

Ceasefire holds—symbolically, at least—relieving global markets

Good morning. Markets are steadying and crude prices are pulling back from their highs as the US and Iran avoid further escalation after a series of skirmishes in the Strait of Hormuz raised questions about the durability of the ceasefire struck in early April. Yesterday’s American attempt to open the waterway—dubbed “Project Freedom”—sank at least six Iranian fast-attack boats and triggered drone strikes on cargo and tanker ships, along with missile attacks on infrastructure in the United Arab Emirates, sending energy benchmarks soaring. With Washington and Tehran making somewhat-conciliatory noises, Brent crude for July delivery is edging lower after jumping...

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04 May 2026

Confused narratives out of the Strait of Hormuz keep markets rangebound

Happy Monday. Oil prices are reverting higher and the dollar is holding steady after President Donald Trump announced plans to “guide”—but not escort—shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. US Central Command, which is currently blockading Iranian ports, said 15,000 service members and more than 100 aircraft, along with warships and drones would support the initiative, yet stopped short of putting surface combatants at risk by offering convoy protection through the narrow waterway. A tanker off Fujairah reported being ⁠hit by “unknown projectiles” shortly after the US announcement, and Tehran this morning said it was implementing a new “control zone” in...

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