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USD

08 May 2025

The art of the deal

• Tariff news. US/UK trade deal ‘framework’ unveiled. Baseline 10% tariff remains. Many details still to be worked out. US/China talks this weekend.• Upbeat markets. Equities rose as did bond yields. USD claws back more lost ground. NZD & AUD drift lower. AUD outperforms NZD, JPY & EUR.• Upcoming events. China trade data released today. Several US Fed members also due to speak. Will the USD’s recovery extend? Global Trends US trade developments remain in the spotlight. After signaling that an announcement was in the pipeline yesterday the US unveiled a ‘framework’ for a deal with the UK. A positive...

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08 May 2025

Markets Rally On Hopes For Global Trade Ceasefire

Stock futures are up and the dollar is trading on a stronger footing after President Donald Trump said he would announce a “full and comprehensive” trade agreement with the United Kingdom later this morning, raising hopes that a broader ratcheting down in tensions could avert lasting damage to the American and global economies. The Canadian dollar and Japanese yen are trading lower, while the euro and other majors are holding firm. Currency market reaction during the White House press conference itself could be fairly subdued. Although reports have suggested that the US is prepared to rescind taxes on autos along...

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07 May 2025

Push-pull forces

• Mixed markets. US equities end a bit higher overnight, while bond yields eased & the USD rose. AUD & NZD gave back ground over the past 24hrs.• Macro news. US/China reportedly set to hold trade talks. US Fed ‘cautious’. No change in rates. There is a lot of uncertainty about the outlook.• Market trends. After a strong run AUD & NZD may ease back further near-term. This reflects the potential for the USD to tick up a little more. Global Trends A couple of push-pull forces have washed through markets over the past few days. On the one hand,...

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07 May 2025

Markets Climb On Trade Negotiation Hopes

The US dollar looks set to snap a three-day losing streak and stock market futures are climbing ahead of the North American open after Beijing and Washington said trade talks between China and the United States are set to begin this weekend. According to statements released by both governments, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer will meet with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in Switzerland, marking the first confirmed high-level contact between the two sides since late January – and the first formal discussion since President Trump imposed 145-percent tariffs on imports from China. Based on...

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06 May 2025

Markets Open On A Somewhat-Downbeat Footing

The dollar is retreating and North American equity futures are setting up for a second day of losses after a series of downbeat earnings outlooks from economic bellwethers like Ford and Palantir cast doubt on the growth outlook. Treasury yields are inching lower, oil prices are up slightly, and the currency markets are generally paring yesterday’s modest moves. Activity in the US services sector – which accounts for roughly two-thirds of overall economic output – surprised investors by accelerating last month, suggesting that underlying growth could prove more resilient than had been feared. The Institute for Supply Management’s services index...

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