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USD

16 Apr 2026

Optimism reigns across financial markets, weighing on the dollar

Good morning. Financial markets are in an ebullient mood as investors bet the US and Iran will reach a peace deal in the coming weeks, allowing the Strait of Hormuz to reopen and relieving the supply shock battering global commodity flows. Although Washington and Tehran are still blockading global shipping and energy shortages are worsening by the day, mediators from Pakistan and the Gulf countries are reportedly working on an extension to last week’s ceasefire, which expires on Tuesday, and are moving closer to arranging another round of talks. North American equity indices are flirting with record highs, Treasury yields...

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14 Apr 2026

Hopes & dreams

• Positive vibes. Markets hopeful another round of US/Iran talks yield positive results. Oil lower, equities higher. USD weaker. AUD at multi-week high.• Macro pulse. IMF downgraded global outlook. Australian business & consumer confidence tumbled. Conflict casting a long shadow over world economy. Global Trends Short-term sentiment driven markets have been in ‘glass half full’ mode overnight. Investors looked through the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz and lasered in on the prospect of another round of talks between the US and Iran, with reports suggesting they could be held over coming days. The current ceasefire is due to expire...

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14 Apr 2026

Diplomacy hopes drive dollar lower

Good morning. Financial markets are rallying on hopes for a renewal of diplomatic engagement in the Middle East, with some media outlets reporting that US and Iranian negotiating teams could return to Islamabad for talks later this week. Oil prices are retreating, Treasury yields are coming under renewed pressure, equity markets are setting up for a positive open, and most major foreign exchange pairs are trading at or above key technical levels against the dollar. The euro is flirting with 1.18, the pound is holding above 1.35, the Canadian dollar is back in the 1.37s, and even the yen is...

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13 Apr 2026

Iran whiplash forces markets into retreat

Hopes for a swift resolution to the war in the Middle East were shattered over the weekend when US-Iran peace talks collapsed and President Trump announced plans to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran reportedly baulked at several American red-line demands during Saturday’s negotiations, refusing to dismantle uranium-enrichment facilities, halt funding for regional proxies, or guarantee free passage through the Strait. Within hours of Trump’s threat, US Central Command said American forces would begin enforcing the blockade “impartially against vessels of all nations entering or departing Iranian ports and coastal areas” from 10:00 am Eastern time today. Markets have reacted...

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12 Apr 2026

One step forward, two steps back

• US/Iran conflict. Weekend talks ended without an agreement. Energy prices jumped this morning. USD firmer. AUD & NZD lose ground.• Macro risks. US threatens to blockade the Strait of Hormuz. Downside risks to global economy remain. Volatility expected to continue for a while yet. Global Trends Market sentiment was underpinned last week by the US/Iran ceasefire news. There was a solid rebound in global equities (the S&P500 rose ~3.6% last week, its best weekly result since last November), bond yields declined, and oil prices pulled back. However, hope can only go so far. Weekend developments have once again highlighted...

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