USD

• Consolidation. Quieter markets on Friday. US equities near record highs. USD tread water. AUD hovering near the top of its multi-month range.• Central banks. US Fed expected to re-start its cutting cycle. Focus will be on updated guidance. Markets pricing in a series of Fed rate reductions.• Event Radar. China data today. Australia jobs report scheduled (Thurs). NZ GDP due. US Fed the focal point (Thurs). US retail sales also out (Tues). Global Trends It was a relatively subdued end to last week in markets, but there are a few events on the horizon which could liven things up...

• Upbeat vibes. Largely as expected US CPI reinforced US Fed rate cut thinking. US equities rose. USD softer. AUD touched a 10-month high.• US cuts. US Fed looks set to cut rates next week. A steady downshift should unfold, in our opinion. This is a medium-term USD headwind.• Data flow. On top of the US Fed meeting next week China data is due (Mon), as are US retail sales (Tues night). AU employment also scheduled (Thurs). Global Trends Markets remain in a jovial mood with the prospect of lower US interest rates supporting risk sentiment and keeping the USD...

• Positive tone. Soft US producer prices reinforced Fed easing expectations. Equities rose & yields dipped. AUD touched highest point since November.• Fed pricing. US CPI due tonight. May generate some vol. But outlook for a steady stream of US rate cuts should remain. This is a USD headwind.• Policy convergence. Further RBA easing anticipated. But more aggressive steps by US Fed could see rates switch in favour of RBA in late-2026. Global Trends A generally positive session in markets overnight with weaker than predicted US producer prices setting the tone. Equities rose with the S&P500 (+0.3%) touching another record,...