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American households seemingly remained undaunted by the war in Iran last month, spending more than expected even as measures of consumer sentiment plunged to historic lows. According to figures published by the Census Bureau this morning, so-called “control group” retail sales—with gasoline, cars, food services, and building materials excluded—rose 0.7% in March, beating forecasts set at 0.2% and climbing at a solid 4.8% pace in year-over-year terms. Total receipts at retail stores, online sellers and restaurants rose 1.7% on a month-over-month basis, following a 0.7% gain in the prior month. Ahead of the release, economists were projecting a 1.4% monthly...

Good morning. The dollar is inching higher and risk appetite is faltering after Tehran attacked shipping in the Strait of Hormuz while the US maintained its blockade of Iranian ports and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo vessel, casting doubt on market expectations for an imminent peace deal. Global oil prices are back up, bond yields are pushing higher, equities are setting up to snap a five-day winning streak, and currency markets are broadly in risk-off mode, with the safe-haven Swiss franc, Japanese yen, and dollar generally outperforming their commodity-sensitive counterparts. But bullish dollar positioning could have further to unwind. According to...