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SGD

07 Sep 2023

AUD finding a base?

• Negative vibes. A more cautious tone overnight with equities & bond yields lower. The USD remains firm, with EUR & GBP weakening.• AUD consolidation. Despite the shaky risk backdrop the AUD has held its ground, albeit at low levels. A lot of negatives now look to be factored in• Event radar. AU business conditions, US CPI, AU employment, US retail sales, the ECB meeting, & the China activity data are due next week. A slightly cautious tone across markets overnight. Following on from the weakness in Asia the major European and US equity markets edged lower with the NASDAQ...

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06 Sep 2023

USD remains high

• Higher for longer. Solid US services ISM data & rhetoric from central bankers has boosted bond yields. The USD remains near its recent highs.• AUD stabilises. After a difficult run the AUD has consolidated, albeit at low levels. Q2 GDP was on net a bit better than expected with population growth supportive.• Event radar. RBA Governor Lowe gives his last speech (“Some closing remarks”) today. China trade & US jobless claims data are also released. The USD has held its ground and continues to track near multi-month or year-to-date highs against the other major currencies. Data wise, the US...

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05 Sep 2023

AUD battered & bruised

• Stronger USD. Softer data out of China & higher US bond yields on the back of a lift in oil has supported the USD. The JPY, AUD, & NZD hit fresh 2023 lows.• AUD underperformance. The AUD has weakened. As expected the RBA kept rates on hold, though it retained its mild conditional tightening bias.• Relative expectations. We think a lot of positives are factored into the USD & negative AUD sentiment is high. AU Q2 GDP & US services ISM released today. The USD has strengthened over the past 24hrs. Softer than expected second tier China Caixin Services...

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04 Sep 2023

All quiet ahead of the RBA

• US holidays. Limited market moves with the US on holiday. The major currencies are little changed from where they ended last week.• RBA today. No change in rates expected at Governor Lowe’s last meeting at the helm. But a mild conditional tightening bias is likely to be maintained.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released tomorrow. A large inventory drawdown suggests there is a risk of a negative print. More inputs are released today. With the US on holiday and no major data or events of note elsewhere it has been a quiet start to the week for markets. European equities...

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03 Sep 2023

USD volatility

• US data. Payrolls were a little stronger than expected, but greater labour supply pushed up unemployment. Manufacturing ISM a bit better than anticipated.• Market volatility. US yields & the USD were whipped around by the US data. AUD spiked initially, but then reversed course as the USD rebounded.• Event radar. Locally, the RBA meeting (Tues), GDP (Weds) & speech by Gov. Lowe (Thurs) are due. Offshore, China trade data & US services ISM are in focus. Markets were whipped around by the US economic data on Friday night with the latest jobs report in the spotlight. The data kept...

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