NZD

• Holding pattern. Modest moves in most markets overnight. JPY’s upswing extends. AUD range bound just above its 1-month average.• UK rates. BoE cut interest rates by 25bps. 2 members voted for a larger move. More easing expected over time. AUD/GBP supported overnight.• US jobs. US employment report in focus tonight. Signs the US labour market is cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets & drag on the USD. Global Trends A relative sense of calm in most markets overnight with only a few macro announcements, no fresh news regarding US trade tariffs, and the US jobs report due...

• Market swings. US equities ticked up while bond yields fell. This weighed on the USD. AUD & NZD continue to recover lost ground.• Data flow. US ADP employment improved but the services ISM declined. Non-farm payrolls released on Friday night. BoE rate cut expected tonight.• Stronger JPY. Wages in Japan accelerated. More BoJ rate hikes anticipated. This is JPY supportive. We see more AUD/JPY downside over medium-term. Global Trends In the absence of new US tariff related developments there has been a mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities swung around but on net ended the session in positive...

• Positive vibes. Yesterday’s news tariffs on Mexico & Canada have been delayed boosted risk sentiment & weighed on the USD. But will it last?• Tariff risks. China announced countermeasures. Risk of the US imposing tariffs on EU remains. More headline-driven volatility likely over period ahead.• AUD & NZD. AUD bounced above its 1-month average. NZD also rebounded, but higher NZ unemployment reinforces RBNZ rate cut expectations. Global Trends Yesterdays news that the proposed US tariffs on Mexico and Canada would be delayed by a month improved the market mood. Indeed, even news out of China that it will impose...

• Tariff news. Tariff-related risk aversion & the stronger USD unwound overnight. News tariffs on Mexico & Canada will be delayed boosted sentiment.• FX swings. After falling sharply AUD & NZD are back around where they ended last week. More headline driven volatility should be anticipated.• Data flow. In the US, JOLTS job openings due tonight. In NZ, Q4 jobs report is out tomorrow. But this can be overshadowed by tariff news. Global Trends The fallout from the US announcing trade tariffs on three of its largest trading partners (Canada, Mexico, China) rattled nerves and sent markets into a tailspin...