NZD

• Solid run. US equities rose on Friday, as did bond yields. USD index tread water. Commodity currencies (AUD, NZD, CAD) strengthened.• Central banks. No change by RBA (Tues), however tone could be ‘hawkish’. US Fed (Thurs morning) set to cut rates but may not signal another near-term move. Global Trends Markets had a relatively quiet end to last week with a string of government shutdown delayed US data points not really moving the needle. In terms of the numbers US equities edged up with the broader S&P500 (+0.2%) within striking distance of its record highs. Bond yields also rose...

• US data. Weaker US ADP employment reinforced US Fed rate cut bets. US equities ticked up & the USD lost ground. AUD & NZD supported.• AU GDP. Topline growth a bit softer than anticipated in Q3, but under the hood private sector momentum picked up speed. Price pressures still evident.• RBA & Fed. Odds next move by RBA is up not down continue to rise. By contrast, a series of US Fed cuts are anticipated over the next year. Global Trends It was a case of “bad US economic news is good news for markets” overnight. More signs growth...

• Positive vibes. Increased odds of a December US Fed rate cut boosted sentiment. US equities rose. AUD & NZD ticked higher on Friday.• AU/NZ events. RBNZ expected to cut rates again (Weds). Most are predicting a 25bp move. First full monthly CPI inflation report out in Australia (Weds).• Event Radar. In the US shutdown delayed retail sales & PPI data due (Tues night AEDT). Thanksgiving holidays may impact liquidity later in the week. Global Trends Intra-session market swings continued Friday, in line with the erratic daily gyrations that have been coming through recently. The zig-zag pattern in US equities...

• Risk wobbles. Positive sentiment after the Nvidia earnings report faded. US equities declined, as did bond yields. AUD & NZD lost ground.• US jobs. Delayed US jobs data showed stronger payrolls but also higher unemployment. Odds of a December US Fed rate cut have declined.• Data flow. Global PMIs & Fed members speaking today. Because of shutdown backlog Fed won’t have another jobs report before mid-December meeting. Global Trends Risk appetite continues to swing around with another burst of volatility coming through overnight. The positive vibes stemming from yesterday’s corporate earnings report from tech-powerhouse Nvidia faded. Broader sentiment changed...