NZD

• US macro. Weak US retail sales weighed on bond yields & the USD on Friday. AUD & NZD extend respective rebounds. US holiday today.• Central banks. Markets expecting another 50bp RBNZ rate cut with a 25bp move by the RBA anticipated. Have easing cycles already been priced in?• Event Radar. In addition to the RBA (Tues) & RBNZ (Weds), AU jobs report also due (Thurs). Global PMIs scheduled (Fri). US Fed members speaking. Global Trends US economic data was the market driver on Friday night with no fresh geopolitical or tariff-related headlines coming through which moved the dial. US...

• Positive vibes. Equities rise, yields fall. USD loses ground. Favourable US PPI & geopolitical/tariff news support sentiment. AUD & NZD lift.• Tariff news. ‘Reciprocal’ US tariffs in the pipeline. Likely to be formally announced by 1 April. Markets breathe a short-term sigh of relief.• Macro events. US retail sales due tonight. Next week the RBA & RBNZ meet. Rate cuts expected by both, though the RBNZ should be more aggressive. Global Trends There were a few more pockets of headline-driven volatility overnight. But on balance, risk sentiment has been positive with favourable data and geopolitical developments coming through. Equities...

• Headline swings. US CPI hotter than expected. Interest rate markets adjust. Jump up in the USD didn’t last as positive geopolitical news hit the wires.• FX moves. EUR rebounded on reports talks to end the Ukraine war may take place. USD/JPY rose. AUD & NZD recovered lost intra-day ground.• Volatility. We think more short-term bursts of headline driven FX volatility are likely as the macro & geopolitical issues play out. Global Trends There was another burst of volatility across markets overnight, particularly in FX, as sentiment and the USD were pushed and pulled by US economic developments and geopolitical...

• Holding on. Yesterdays tariff headlines didn’t trigger a lasting market impact. Equities pushed higher, bond yields consolidated, & AUD rebounded.• Macro impulses. In addition to tariff news markets will be focused on Fed Chair Powell’s testimony tonight. US Fed looks to be in no rush to cut again.• Tariff news. AUD outperformed overnight. There are indirect headwinds but AU’s export basket looks rather tariff-insulated. US runs a trade surplus with AU. Global Trends Markets look to have taken the latest US trade tariff news in their stride. As outlined yesterday, the US is reportedly set to impose 25% tariffs...