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NZD

18 Jul 2024

Political noise

• Shaky sentiment. US equities dip for the second day. Base metals lower. USD a little firmer. AUD/USD slips back but AUD holding up on the crosses.• Global macro. ECB holds steady. September meeting is ‘wide open’. Incoming data will be key. UK wages cool. EUR & GBP lose a bit of ground.• AU jobs. Solid jobs report. Labour demand remains positive. Unemployment still low. RBA expectations diverging from other central banks. A few wobbles in risk sentiment over the past couple of sessions. US equities fell for the second straight day (S&P500 -0.8%), base metal prices declined (copper -3.3%),...

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16 Jul 2024

Mixed messages

• Mixed markets. S&P500 & gold hit record highs. Bond yields slipped back, while the USD index consolidated. AUD gave back a bit of ground.• US data. US retail sales better than expected in June. But the underlying trend still shows sluggish momentum. Fed rate cuts priced in from September.• NZ CPI. NZ headline inflation slowed in Q2. The door to RBNZ rate cuts continues to open. Australian jobs report released tomorrow. Mixed performance across markets overnight. US equities continued to power ahead with the S&P500 (+0.6%) hitting another record. The S&P500 is now up ~24% compared to a year...

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15 Jul 2024

Macro vs politics

• Trump trades. US long end yields, equities, & the USD tick up. Weekend developments have bolstered expectations Trump might be re-elected.• Fed pricing. US data is supporting Fed rate cut bets. Last week US CPI underwhelmed. The divergence with the RBA is underpinning the AUD.• Event Radar. US retail sales due tonight. ECB meets on Thursday night. Q2 NZ CPI (Weds) & the Australian jobs report (Thurs) also on the schedule. Economic trends butted up against geopolitical developments at the start of the new week. These cross-currents look set to be in place for some time. After losing more...

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10 Jul 2024

Will the US CPI jolt markets?

• Mixed markets. Equities push higher with long-end yields a bit lower. USD consolidates. AUD treading water near the top of its multi-month range.• RBNZ shift. A change in the RBNZ’s tone. Door to rate cuts opening. AUD/NZD’s upswing continues. AUD/NZD at its highest since Q4 2022.• US CPI. Challenging base-effects could keep annual inflation steady. But the monthly pulse expected to be soft. Something for everyone likely in the data. There was generally an upbeat tone across markets overnight, although that didn’t flow through to the major currencies as they remained range bound. US equities powered ahead with a...

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10 Jul 2024

AUD/NZD – Diverging macro fundamentals

No change in policy from the RBNZ at today’s meeting, as widely expected. And given this was an interim review meeting, not a full forecast update, there was another fairly short post meeting statement. That said, we think were noteworthy tweaks in the RBNZ’s tone and guidance. After leading the central bank charge during the global tightening phase and maintaining a ‘hawkish’ bias for some time, the RBNZ has started to soften its message as the harsher NZ economic reality appears to be hitting home. This is no surprise to us as we never bought into the RBNZ’s surprisingly ‘hawkish’...

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