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08 Apr 2025

Wild market swings continue

• Volatility. Tariff news continues to generate volatility. US equities unwound early gains to end the day lower. AUD & NZD followed. CNH also weaker.• Tariff news. While there were signals about deals for some nations, goods from China are set to be hit with another tariff. This dampened sentiment.• Macro events. RBNZ expected to cut interest rates again today. Tariff developments will continue to drive markets for a while. Global Trends Volatility in markets has continued with tariff-related headlines still the driving force. The initial positive sentiment in the US session following the rebound in Asian and European equities...

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08 Apr 2025

Global risks don’t equate to a crisis

Last week’s ‘reciprocal tariff’ announcements by the US, and subsequent retaliation last Friday by China, has caused a fair degree of market upheaval. Given the broad-based and outsized tariffs imposed on goods shipped to the US, concerns about downside growth and upside inflation risks have spiked, and this has triggered an abrupt repricing in ‘complacent’ asset markets (chart 1). Equities and commodities have tumbled sharply over the past few sessions, as have growth-linked currencies such as the NZD and particularly the AUD which has plunged to levels last traded in the early dark days of COVID (now ~$0.6030). In our...

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07 Apr 2025

Volatility continues

• Market swings. Tariff headlines generated more vol. overnight. S&P500 traded in a ~8.5% range. AUD still tracking at levels last seen during COVID.• Negative vibes. Tariffs will slow US/global growth. But is the extreme market vol. justified? These types of moves only seen during a crisis.• AUD levels. Momentum/sentiment have been overpowering fundamentals. AUD in ‘rarefied air’ having only traded sub-$0.60 very infrequently since 2015. Global Trends Volatility has continued as markets adjust to the changing economic landscape stemming from recent tariff developments and react to new news. Negative sentiment dominated yesterday’s early trade as Friday’s US market turmoil...

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06 Apr 2025

Tariff tantrum

• Vol. shock. Growth concerns after China retaliated to US tariffs saw markets tumble again on Friday. AUD & NZD plunged, as did equities/commodities.• Extreme moves. The over 10% two-day drop in the S&P500 has only happened a handful of times. AUD’s one-day trading range also historically wide.• Event Radar. Tariff developments will continue to be in the drivers seat. Data wise, US CPI due this week, RBNZ meets, & RBA Gov. Bullock speaks. Global Trends Risk sentiment continues to deteriorate. Asset markets tumbled again on Friday as worries about a tariff induced ‘Trumpcession’ ramped up. Anxiety levels spiked further...

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01 Apr 2025

Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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