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MXN

Dollar Retreats as ‘Tariff Exhaustion’ Kicks In, and Retail Sales Slump

The dollar is trading near a two-month low this morning after Donald Trump delivered a long-threatened “reciprocal” tariff plan that was distinctly short on tradeable detail. In an extensively-teased announcement from the Oval Office, the president signed a memo directing federal agencies to investigate raising import taxes on shipments from countries with “unfair” economic barriers in place against US exports—things like tariffs, regulations, subsidies, manipulated exchange rates, and domestic value-added taxes—but stopped short of imposing any deadlines or naming the product categories and countries that could be targeted. “On trade, I have decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will...

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Markets Look Through Renewed Tariff Threats

The dollar is up modestly against its major rivals after Donald Trump verbally threatened to increase tariffs for the third weekend in a row. In a press briefing conducted on Air Force One ahead of yesterday’s Super Bowl, the president told reporters that he would unveil new reciprocal tariffs—levies designed to match foreign protectionist measures—in the coming days, and will impose 25 percent tariffs on steel and aluminum products from all US trading partners today. Reciprocal tariffs—which are designed to match protectionist measures in other countries—are generally well supported on both sides of the aisle, and are not terribly impactful...

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Markets Stabilise as Policy Risks Recede

Financial markets are overcoming post-traumatic stress syndrome three days after Donald Trump started—and then temporarily paused—a potentially-catastrophic trade war with Canada and Mexico. Benchmark ten-year Treasury yields are inching lower and major equity bourses are headed for a stronger open after Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent called tariffs a “means to an end,” and said the new administration is focused on bringing down interest rates. The dollar is holding firm against its rivals. The number of Americans submitting initial applications for unemployment benefits rose incrementally to 219,000 in the week ended February 1, and continuing claims fell slightly in the prior...

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Regularly-Scheduled Programming Resumes

A sense of normalcy is returning to financial markets this morning after Donald Trump backed off threats against Canada and Mexico, granting the countries a 30-day reprieve from his proposed 25-percent tariffs. The dollar is retreating amid sluggish price action in currency markets, ten-year yields are down as inflation expectations recede, and equity markets are setting up for a soft open. Measures of implied volatility are coming off their highs, but remain elevated relative to recent history. The stay of execution was achieved after leaders in each country agreed to bolster border security in telephone calls with Trump. Bafflingly, the...

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Trade Shock Roils Global Markets

The dollar is climbing, yields are rising and equity markets are setting up for sharp losses at the open after US President Donald Trump fired the opening salvo in what could quickly devolve into a global trade war. The administration said Saturday it will levy 25 percent import taxes on goods from Canada and Mexico—with Canadian “energy resources” subjected to a lower 10 percent levy—along with an extra 10 percent tariff on imports from China. If implemented immediately and sustained, this would represent the biggest increase in duties since the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930—often blamed for deepening the Great...

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