MXN

Good morning. The Federal Reserve delivered a hawkish hold yesterday, leaving rates unchanged while laying the groundwork for future hikes. The statement was broadly unchanged from June, but three officials—Beth Hammack, Lorie Logan and Neel Kashkari—dissented in favour of an immediate increase, up from two at the prior meeting and illustrative of a growing tightening bias on the committee. Markets had assigned roughly one-in-three odds to a move ahead of the decision, and small position adjustments followed in its immediate aftermath. But a credibility shock followed. Chair Kevin Warsh opened his second press conference by declaring that “this Fed will...

Good morning. The dollar is easing off a one-month high ahead of tomorrow’s Federal Reserve meeting, caught between two countervailing forces: a fall in oil prices that is easing inflation fears, and a deepening selloff in global technology stocks that threatens the foundations of US exceptionalism. The euro, pound, yen, and Mexican peso are edging lower, while the Canadian dollar recovers its footing amid a lack of directional conviction. Oil prices are extending their declines following Washington’s abrupt suspension of air strikes on Iran over the weekend. President Trump yesterday claimed the US was having “good talks” with Tehran, and...

Good morning. The dollar is edging lower and trading ranges are narrowing across currency markets ahead of the personal consumption expenditures report—the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—at 8:30. Evidence of resilient underlying price pressures might reignite the dollar’s rally—or a softer reading could open a wider reappraisal of the higher-for-longer policy expectations that have driven the currency’s outperformance over the past week. Equity markets are setting up for gains at the open after a blowout forecast from Micron restored confidence in the artificial intelligence boom. The memory-chip maker provided a quarterly revenue outlook well above analyst estimates, sending its shares...

Good morning. The trade-weighted dollar is holding near a sixteen-month high, Treasury yields are slipping, and US equity futures are rebounding after a steep technology-led selloff earlier in the week. Oil prices are slipping as markets brace for the release of millions of barrels in pent-up supply. Physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz are beginning to resume as tankers get underway and a US waiver on Iranian exports takes effect, pushing prices on floating cargoes lower. Front-month Brent futures are trading near $75 a barrel and West Texas Intermediate around $71—roughly 25% above pre-war levels, but down sharply from...

Good morning. Oil prices are holding yesterday’s gains and the dollar is advancing on reports suggesting that the Trump administration is considering rebranding* its war with Iran as “Operation Sledgehammer” should Tehran reject US demands and the current ceasefire collapse. According to multiple sources, President Trump is weighing a resumption of major combat operations after declaring an end to “Operation Epic Fury” when a ceasefire took effect in early April, with the expectation that a new designation would reset the 60-day legal clock requiring congressional authorisation for hostilities. Intelligence assessments publicised by the New York Times** suggest Iran retains roughly...