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MXN

24 Mar 2023

TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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10 Feb 2023

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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09 Feb 2023

Mexican Peso Surges on Surprise Rate Hike

Surprise 50 basis point rate hike from Banxico this afternoon – widened the yield differential against the dollar, and kicked the peso higher. More here: Bloomberg: Mexico Stuns Markets With Half-Point Rate Hike on New Inflation Gain

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16 Dec 2022

Market Briefing: Festive Cheer Drains Out of Markets As Central Banks Remain Hawkish Into Year End

After a bruising session yesterday, risk-sensitive currencies are setting up for another day of losses. The greenback is firmer, yields are higher, and commodity prices are weaker after the Federal Reserve adopted a more hawkish-than-expected stance on Wednesday’s meeting, Europe’s central banks followed suit with their own 50-basis point hikes, and data pointed to a slowdown in American consumer spending. November retail sales tumbled 0.6 percent from the prior month, falling more than expected as price growth slowed and spending patterns shifted. So-called “control group” sales, which exclude building materials, vehicle parts and gas station sales, dropped 0.2 percent, while...

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12 Aug 2022

Market Briefing: Dollar Weakens as Risk Appetite Grows

Sometimes, sentiment in markets can defy easy explanation, requiring lots of nuance and many caveats to describe. At other times, the mood be summed up on the front of a Hallmark card. Today, it’s a 50th birthday card that says “it’s all downhill from here”. Investors remain convinced a softening economy and weaker price pressures will convince the Federal Reserve to slow rate increases – leading to a loosening in financial conditions that supports asset prices. Long-term Treasury yields are down, and the trade-weighted dollar is headed for its steepest weekly loss in at least two months. Commodity prices are...

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