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MXN

12 Jun 2023

Weekly Update June 12

Demand expectations are falling as evidence of a slowdown in the global industrial cycle accumulates – with China leading the way. Oil prices are dropping. Crude oil benchmarks, USD per barrel New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey: “Inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons”. Consumer inflation expectations are coming down. Google search volume for “inflation” and median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, % Inflation breakevens – which measure the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury...

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31 Mar 2023

Out Like a Lamb

The month of March is set to end on a quieter note as banking concerns ease, the dollar stabilizes, and volatility measures subside. Treasury yields are steady ahead of new consumer spending data and an update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, equity futures are strengthening, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging higher – suggesting that investors could be positioning for a generalized bear market bounce in early April. Mexico’s peso remains relatively unmoved after the Banxico delivered a widely-expected rate hike and shifted its forward guidance in a firmly data-dependent direction. After telegraphing the intention to do so at last month’s...

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24 Mar 2023

TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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10 Feb 2023

Currency Market Sub-Plots Lift Greenback

The dollar is creeping upward as conflicting cross-currents in the foreign exchange markets contrive to keep most majors tightly rangebound. Yields are broadly flat, and equity futures are setting up for a slightly weaker open. Mexico’s Banxico yesterday became the second central bank—after the Reserve Bank of Australia—to defy increasingly-dovish policy expectations, sending the peso soaring by raising rates by half a percentage point in a move that surprised virtually every observer. In a statement accompanying the decision, policymakers said “Given the dynamics of core inflation, on this occasion it is necessary to continue with the magnitude of the reference...

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09 Feb 2023

Mexican Peso Surges on Surprise Rate Hike

Surprise 50 basis point rate hike from Banxico this afternoon – widened the yield differential against the dollar, and kicked the peso higher. More here: Bloomberg: Mexico Stuns Markets With Half-Point Rate Hike on New Inflation Gain

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