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MXN

23 Jun 2023

Risk appetite falls on accumulating evidence of global economic slowdown

The dollar is staging a broad-based recovery this morning after a raft of purchasing manager surveys showed activity slowing sharply across a range of global economies. Data published by S&P this morning provided evidence of decelerating growth in Australia, Japan, the UK and the euro area, with the all-important services sector joining manufacturing in showing signs of strain in every major country. In the euro area, the headline purchasing manager index dropped to 50.3 in June from 52.5 in the prior month, narrowly avoiding contraction and hitting a five-month low as the strike-plagued French economy deteriorated and the German factory sector remained depressed. European yields fell...

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22 Jun 2023

Markets weaken as Bank of England delivers another hawkish surprise

The British pound is consolidating gains after the Bank of England joined its Commonwealth counterparts in wrongfooting markets with a bigger-than-expected half-point hike at this morning’s meeting. Responding to “material news” of an acceleration in wages and consumer prices, the Monetary Policy Committee voted seven to two in favour of raising rates to the highest levels since 2008, with Governor Bailey saying “Bringing inflation down is our absolute priority”. From today’s 5 percent, traders now expect the Bank Rate to peak above 6 percent in early 2024. This should, in theory, generate a lot of carry support for the pound – speculators...

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12 Jun 2023

Weekly Update June 12

Demand expectations are falling as evidence of a slowdown in the global industrial cycle accumulates – with China leading the way. Oil prices are dropping. Crude oil benchmarks, USD per barrel New York Federal Reserve Consumer Expectations Survey: “Inflation expectations declined to 4.1 percent at the one-year-ahead horizon, its lowest reading since May 2021, but increased slightly to 3.0 percent and 2.7 percent at the three- and five-year-ahead horizons”. Consumer inflation expectations are coming down. Google search volume for “inflation” and median one-year ahead expected inflation rate, % Inflation breakevens – which measure the difference between Treasury yields and Treasury...

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31 Mar 2023

Out Like a Lamb

The month of March is set to end on a quieter note as banking concerns ease, the dollar stabilizes, and volatility measures subside. Treasury yields are steady ahead of new consumer spending data and an update in the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation indicator, equity futures are strengthening, and risk-sensitive currencies are edging higher – suggesting that investors could be positioning for a generalized bear market bounce in early April. Mexico’s peso remains relatively unmoved after the Banxico delivered a widely-expected rate hike and shifted its forward guidance in a firmly data-dependent direction. After telegraphing the intention to do so at last month’s...

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24 Mar 2023

TGIF?

As 2023 unfolds, “Thank God It’s Friday” is rapidly becoming “Oh No, It’s Friday”. Risk appetites are shrinking across the financial markets this morning as investors brace for a weekend that could follow its predecessors in bringing more scary news. The dollar is pushing higher against all of its major non-Japanese counterparts, two-year Treasury yields appear headed back toward the lows reached earlier in the week, and futures suggest equity indices are setting up for a weaker open. North American crude futures are exchanging hands near $67 a barrel, below levels at which the Biden administration had committed to refilling...

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