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JPY

13 Feb 2024

Any juice left in the USD’s upswing?

The USD has been on a tear over early 2024, with the USD Index undergoing a round trip. The USD pull-back that transpired at the end of last year has unwound just as quickly. Given the rest of the world is a ‘price taker’ and what happens with the USD is the key cog in the FX machine, this has seen currencies like the EUR (now ~$1.0710) and the AUD (now ~$0.6460) fall back, and others such as USD/JPY (now ~150.40) and USD/SGD (now ~1.35) rise, to levels last traded in mid-November. A string of positive US data surprises, the...

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13 Feb 2024

US inflation jolts markets

• US inflation. A positive US inflation surprise rattled markets. US bond yields jumped up, equities fell, & the USD strengthened. AUD back down near ~$0.6450.• Rate pricing. Odds of a Fed rate cut in March or May have tumbled. Markets are now (finally) factoring in a similar path forward to the Fed’s ‘dot plot’.• AU events. The next AUD centric event is tomorrows labour force report. Will employment rebound from its December slump or will the cracks widen? The latest read on US inflation rattled markets overnight. US CPI positively surprised pretty much all the analysts surveyed with headline...

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12 Feb 2024

Will US inflation slow further?

• Quiet start. Subdued markets with modest moves in equities, bond yields, & the major currencies. Firmer metals prices help the AUD a little.• US inflation. January US CPI due tonight. Leading indicators point to US inflation continuing to slow. Will this see the USD lose ground?• AUD crosses. Pairs like AUD/GBP, AUD/EUR & AUD/NZD look to be trading too low compared to levels implied by yield differentials and/or other fundamentals. It has been a quiet start to the week, unsurprising given the limited news flow and with several Asian markets closed for the Lunar New Year. In contrast to...

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11 Feb 2024

US inflation & AU jobs in focus

• Positive tone. The lack of meaningful revisions to the US CPI seasonal factors supported sentiment. US equities hit another record. The AUD edged up.• US focus. US CPI & retail sales this week. Inflation projected to slow with headline CPI set to slip below 3%pa. This may take some of the heat out of the USD.• Event radar. AU jobs report released Thursday with employment forecast to rebound. RBNZ Gov. Orr speaks. UK GDP & CPI also due this week. An upbeat tone across markets on Friday with participants and Federal Reserve policymakers breathing a sigh of relief that...

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09 Feb 2024

Markets Tread Water Into Inflation Revisions 

Currency market participants are keeping their powder dry ahead of today’s US consumer price index revisions. The dollar is steady, Treasury yields are slightly higher, and equity futures are setting up for an incrementally-stronger open after the S&P 500 index hit a record high in yesterday’s session, briefly broaching the 5,000 mark. The Bureau of Labor Statistics’ annual seasonal revisions are seen nudging measured consumer price index inflation rates up slightly in the latter half of 2023, but markets are wary of the potential for a bigger move. Many investors are still suffering post-traumatic stress disorder after last February’s procedure...

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