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JPY

Bloodshed Continues As Markets Price US Downturn

A global market selloff triggered by Donald Trump’s effort to upend the global trading system is still underway this morning, with equity futures pointing to further losses after trillions of dollars in value was erased during yesterday’s session. Most major US and international indices are down more than 5 percent from Tuesday’s levels, benchmark ten-year Treasuries are yielding less than 3.9 percent for the first time since early October, and measures of implied volatility—expectations for more turbulence in the future—are holding near levels last hit during August’s unwind in the yen carry trade and the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank...

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Global Selloff Ensues After Trump Rips Up World Trade Framework

Financial markets are in freefall across the planet after Donald Trump took aim at the international trading system with the most significant package of tariff increases in more than a century, threatening to inflict a third systemic blow against global growth in as many decades. The dollar is down more than 2 percent against a basket of its major counterparts, benchmark ten-year Treasury yields have fallen through the 4.05 percent threshold, and major North American equity markets are set to open more than 3 percent lower after a selloff rippled across Europe and Asia in the overnight session. Trump’s tariff...

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Brace for tariff impact

• US tariffs. US set to unveil its latest tariffs tomorrow. Still a lot of uncertainty on what will be announced. This can trigger another bout of volatility.• Holding on. Equities rose overnight, while bond yields dipped. AUD & NZD clawed back a bit of lost ground.• RBA hold. No change by RBA yesterday. Uncertainty clouds the outlook. There are upside & downside risks. Cut in May possible, but isn’t locked in. Global Trends The US’ ‘reciprocal’ tariff announcement is almost here. ‘Liberation Day’, as President Trump is calling it, takes place tomorrow with the US set to unveil the...

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Planes, trains & automobiles

• US tariffs. Tariff developments dominate the headlines. Yesterday the US announced 25% duties on vehicle imports. Reciprocal tariffs due 2 April.• Holding on. Equities eased, as did the USD. NZD ticked higher while AUD is hovering near ~$0.63. RBA & US jobs report also on the radar next week.• EUR risks. EUR strengthened over the past month. Is too much good news priced in? EU exposed to vehicle tariffs. EU is a large US trading partner. Global Trends US tariff developments continue to dominate the headlines and generate bursts of market volatility. Yesterday morning the US Administration came through...

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Holding on

• Push-pull. Modest market moves overnight. US equities ticked up, bond yields dipped. Copper rose. USD a bit softer. AUD edged back over ~$0.63• AU Budget. Small surprise tax cut starts in mid-2026. RBA outlook unchanged as overall fiscal impulse little different. Federal Election due by 17 May.• Data flow. Monthly AU CPI indicator released today. Global markets still focused on US reciprocal tariffs which will be announced on 2 April. Global Trends Market moves were rather modest overnight. A late-session rally in a few of the US big tech stocks saw the S&P500 eke out a small gain (+0.2%)...

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