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JPY

Market Calm Returns

Financial markets are stabilising this morning as investors process the implications of yesterday’s soft US inflation print and more hawkish-than-expected Fed decision. The dollar is moving sideways along with the pound and euro, Treasury yields are slipping, and North American equity futures are setting up for a mixed trading day. The May inflation report was unquestionably positive, consistent with rate cuts beginning in the autumn months. Headline and core consumer price indices increased by less than expected, with declining energy prices putting downward pressure on the all-items measure while a sharp decline in car insurance premiums offset still-stubborn shelter costs....

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US inflation vs the Fed

• Data vs the Fed. Softer US inflation overpowered a ‘higher for longer’ Fed message. US yields fell, equities rose, & the USD weakened.• Stale forecasts? Fed assuming only 1 cut this year. Fed has moved to match the market. But Chair Powell noted ‘most’ didn’t tweak forecasts after the CPI.• AUD outperformance. Backdrop helped the AUD outperform. AU jobs report today. Could the ‘labour force lottery’ spring another surprise? US events generated a burst of market friendly volatility overnight with softer than predicted CPI inflation overpowering a more cautious ‘higher for longer’ message from the Federal Reserve. While there...

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US CPI & Fed in focus

• Data & politics. European political concerns have weighed on the EUR. This & positive US jobs data at the end of last week have supported the USD.• US events. US CPI & Fed meeting in focus tonight. US core inflation forecast to slow & while the Fed should project few cuts this may already be priced in.• AUD cross-currents. European issues have boosted AUD/EUR. Positive US CPI signs & the Fed failing to exceed ‘hawkish’ expectations may help AUD. Economic and political developments in the US and Europe have shaken up markets over the past few sessions. The better-than-expected...

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Safe Haven Demand Rises

The dollar is advancing for a fourth session and Treasury yields are coming under pressure as uncertainty surrounding European political upheaval intersects with broader concerns over US policy direction heading into tomorrow’s inflation data and Federal Reserve meeting. North American equity futures are setting up for a weaker session and risk-proxy currencies like the Canadian dollar are drifting lower. The British pound is trading with a weaker bias after a softer-than-expected labour report helped firm odds on an easing in monetary policy by the autumn. According to the Office for National Statistics, unemployment climbed to a two-and-a-half year high at...

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More policy recalibration

• Consolidation. US equities & yields little changed. USD slightly softer with EUR inching up after the ECB cut rates but was vague about future moves.• US jobs. Monthly US employment report in focus tonight. Signs conditions are cooling could revive US Fed rate cut bets. This may drag on the USD.• Other data. China trade figures out today. New RBA Deputy Gov. Hauser speaks. Next week US Fed meets, with US CPI & AU jobs also due. Consolidation was the name of the game across most major markets overnight. While European equities edged up (EuroStoxx600 +0.7%) the US S&P500...

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