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JPY

22 Jul 2024

AUD losing altitude

• US politics. No major market reaction to news Pres. Biden has withdrawn from the election. US equities bounce, while yields & the USD consolidate.• AUD turbulence. AUD lost more ground. Monetary easing in China & weaker industrial metals prices have exerted downward pressure on the AUD.• Data flow. No major releases today. Tomorrow global PMIs are due & BoC is expected to cut rates. US GDP (Thurs) & PCE deflator (Fri) also looming. News US President Biden has withdrawn from the election race clearly generated a lot of media attention, but the impact on financial markets has been minimal....

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21 Jul 2024

Biden drops out

• US politics. Pres. Biden drops out of the race. Will the narrower gap between Harris & Trump in betting odds see traders unwind recent market moves?• AUD vol. AUD under pressure last week. But we think it is looking a bit undervalued given the relative macro & interest rate dynamics.• Event radar. Global PMIs due (Weds). US GDP (Thurs) & PCE Deflator (Fri) are released. Bank of Canada meets (Weds), so does the MAS (Fri). The pressure on cyclical assets continued at the end of last week with the pull-back in equities and industrial commodities extending. The US S&P500...

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19 Jul 2024

Volatility Ratchets Higher as Global System Outage Hits Markets

A flight to safety in currency markets is slowly unwinding this morning, but jitters remain as traders gain a better understanding of how a worldwide software outage is impacting the global financial system. Airlines, telecommunications firms, banks, and stock exchanges are suffering service disruptions after an update from the CrowdStrike cybersecurity firm reportedly took down systems running Microsoft’s Windows operating system, but price action in the foreign exchange pairs we track remains consistent with typical liquidity conditions, suggesting that market participants are finding ways to transact. The technological tumult comes after days of strange weather in financial markets, with shifts...

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18 Jul 2024

Political noise

• Shaky sentiment. US equities dip for the second day. Base metals lower. USD a little firmer. AUD/USD slips back but AUD holding up on the crosses.• Global macro. ECB holds steady. September meeting is ‘wide open’. Incoming data will be key. UK wages cool. EUR & GBP lose a bit of ground.• AU jobs. Solid jobs report. Labour demand remains positive. Unemployment still low. RBA expectations diverging from other central banks. A few wobbles in risk sentiment over the past couple of sessions. US equities fell for the second straight day (S&P500 -0.8%), base metal prices declined (copper -3.3%),...

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18 Jul 2024

ECB Holds, Signals Patience on Rate Cuts

Global currency markets are stabilising and the euro remains essentially unmoved after the European Central Bank left its main policy settings unchanged while avoiding telegraphing a move in September. In a mostly unmodified statement, officials said “domestic price pressures are still high, services inflation is elevated and headline inflation is likely to remain above target well into next year,” while acknowledging that most measures of underlying price pressures “were either stable or edged down in June”. Potentially foreshadowing comments from President Lagarde during the press conference, policymakers inserted a sentence warning market participants against inferring signals about the future direction...

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