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JPY

US events in focus

• Shaky sentiment. US equities, yields & the USD a bit lower as Q1 US GDP was revised down. AUD rebounds up towards ~$0.6630 (its 1-month average)• US politics. Former President Trump found guilty. Market impact has (so far) been limited. More twists & turns in US politics look likely.• Data flow. China PMIs, Eurozone CPI, & US PCE deflator due today. Moderating US inflation & positive data elsewhere could weigh on the USD. There was a ‘risk off’ tone across most markets overnight, although in FX the moves didn’t follow the usual script. US equities slipped back (S&P500 -0.6%)...

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Market Retreat Continues as Yields Climb

Worries about a higher-for-longer stance from the Federal Reserve are intersecting with extraordinarily-elevated levels of government bond issuance to drive yields higher, bolstering the dollar’s safe-haven appeal. With ten-year yields climbing across the developed economies, but moving even faster in the United States, the greenback is trading near a two-week peak, and investors are rebalancing away from equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies. After a series of stronger-than-expected data releases and hawkish comments from Fed officials, markets are struggling to choke down heavy volumes of bond supply. In comments yesterday, the Atlanta Fed’s relatively-centrist President Raphael Bostic said “My outlook is...

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No news is good news

• Quiet start. UK & US on holidays. European equities rise & bond yields slip back. Upbeat risk tone weighed on the USD & supported the AUD.• ECB speakers. Several ECB members spoke with a rate cut next week strongly hinted at. What happens after that will depend on the data.• AU data. Retail sales due today. Monthly CPI indicator released tomorrow. Weaker data could exert some near-term downward pressure on the AUD. It has been a quiet start to the week across markets, unsurprising given the UK and US were off enjoying a long weekend and the limited news...

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Twists & turns

• US data. US PMIs stronger than expected. This fanned the flames of the ‘higher for longer’ rates view. US bond yields rose & equities dipped.• FX moves. USD a bit firmer, but net FX moves have been modest. AUD extended its pull-back to be near ~$0.66, in-line with its 1-month average.• Data calendar. A few bits & pieces released today such as UK retail sales & US durable goods orders. Next week AU retail sales & monthly CPI are due. Some more twists and turns in the global economic data with the US business PMIs for May coming in...

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Hawkish Fedspeak Forces Modest Market Retreat

Traders are staying in their foxholes this morning after a flock of Fed officials delivered a remarkably unified message on rate cuts, warning markets not to expect easing to begin for many months yet. Speaking at the Peterson Institute in Washington yesterday, Governor Waller counselled patience, saying “In the absence of a significant weakening in the labour market, I need to see several more months of good inflation data before I would feel comfortable supporting an easing in the stance of monetary policy”. At a separate event, Cleveland’s Loretta Mester said “I need to see a few more months of...

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