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JPY

Fear subsides. But will it last?

• JPY trends. The weaker JPY boosted sentiment yesterday. Asian/European equities rose, as did long-end bond yields. AUD hovering near ~$0.6520.• NZD bounce. Better than feared NZ jobs report supported the NZD. But ‘slack’ is still increasing. A matter of time before the RBNZ starts to cut rates. The market nervousness from earlier this week has continued to subside. Asian and European equities rose 1-2%, with Japan’s Nikkei effectively back to where it was ahead of Monday’s dramatic sell-off. That said, it hasn’t been all one-way with US stock markets fading as the overnight session rolled on (S&P500 -0.8%). Bond...

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Turnaround Tuesday

• Market rebound. Partial reversal in risk sentiment. US equities & bond yields rose overnight. USD index ticked up, while the AUD outperformed.• RBA hold. No change in rates from the RBA. But another hike was considered. Rate cuts still some time away. Policy divergence should be AUD supportive. A sense of calm has returned to markets with a partial reversal of the burst of risk aversion coming through over the past 24hrs. The Japanese Nikkei rebounded sharply with the index up over ~10% yesterday. US equities rose overnight, albeit more modestly (S&P500 +1%), with the VIX volatility index dropping...

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Panic at the disco

• Equity slump. Large falls in global equities. Japan’s Nikkei plunged ~12% yesterday. Fears of a ‘hard landing’ have rattled nerves. Volatility spikes.• Driving factors. Soft US jobs report, lofty valuations, & an unwind of built-up Japan/JPY trades have combined. But credit spreads haven’t moved much.• RBA today. AUD near ~$0.65. Negative sentiment has seen markets factor in rapid-fire RBA rate cuts. We think things may have moved too far, too fast. Crash, bang, wallop. Markets have been in a tailspin over the past few sessions with larger falls in equities, a spike in volatility, and substantial repricing in interest...

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Global Financial Markets Crack, Volatility Surges

A long period of unusual calm in financial markets was shattered over the weekend, when the Japanese stock market imploded and cross-border carry trades unwound in a violent manner. Japan’s Nikkei stock index closed down 12.4 percent—marking its worst selloff since the “Black Monday” crash in 1987—and the yen is trading near the 142 threshold after having hit 161 less than two weeks ago. Volatility expectations are soaring. Safe-haven Treasury yields are plummeting, with the policy-sensitive two-year returning less than 3.7 percent—down from 4.4 percent early last week—and the ten year seeing similar dynamics. Futures prices show the Nasdaq headed...

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Global Selloff Intensifies

In an unusual turn of events, investors are suddenly acting as if bad news for the economy might also be bad news for financial markets. During yesterday’s session, evidence of rising unemployment and a deepening contraction in the US manufacturing sector helped compound the effects of a series of underwhelming earnings reports, triggering a plunge in major stock indices – and the selling looks set to continue at this morning’s open, as futures point to further losses. Air seems to be coming out of the artificial intelligence bubble. Updates from the likes of Alphabet, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft this week...

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