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JPY

05 Sep 2024

US payrolls in focus

• Hold the line. US S&P500 dipped, as did US yields & the USD. US ADP employment underwhelmed. But this hasn’t been a great guide for payrolls.• US employment. Non-farm payrolls tonight. USD (& AUD) reaction likely to be binary. Stronger (weaker) data could be USD positive (negative).• RBA rhetoric. Gov. Bullock held firm. Level of demand & inflation still high. Rate cuts look some time away. Policy divergence AUD supportive. Recent market trends generally extended overnight, although the size of the moves has been more limited. The US S&P500 (-0.3%) slipped back for the third straight day, something which...

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05 Sep 2024

Dollar Slips on Renewed Recession Fears

The dollar is back on the defensive after new data showed the US labour market cooling rapidly, increasing odds on a dramatic opening salvo in the Federal Reserve’s easing cycle later this month. Treasury yields are stabilising after yesterday’s tumble and equity futures are advancing ahead of this morning’s weekly jobless claims number, but directional position-taking remains restrained, with tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report poised to play a pivotal role in determining market outcomes across virtually every major asset class. The number of job openings fell in July to the lowest level since the start of 2021, according to yesterday’s Job...

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04 Sep 2024

Rate expectations jolted

• Mixed markets. Equities slipped again, while bond yields tumbled & the USD softened. JPY strengthened & the AUD clawed back a bit of ground.• US jolts. US job openings declined. US labour market is rebalancing. Fed rate cuts are coming. Non-farm payrolls will make or break the case for 50bps.• AU GDP. Weak growth in Q2, but the level of activity remains high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks today on “the costs of high inflation”. A mixed performance across markets with some of the moves from the previous day extending while others, particularly in FX, partially unwound. European and US...

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03 Sep 2024

Risk aversion returns

• Risk off. Growth worries have weighed on cyclical assets. US equities fell, as did base metal prices. Bond yields declined. USD & JPY stronger.• AUD weaker. Backdrop has exerted downward pressure on the AUD. There could be more to come if the US jobs data generates USD support.• AU GDP. Q2 GDP released today. Another weak quarter of growth likely. But level of demand is still high. RBA Gov. Bullock speaks tomorrow. It has been a negative start to September with a bout of risk aversion rippling through markets overnight as the US returned from its long weekend. Some...

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03 Sep 2024

Investors Batten the Hatches Ahead of a Stormy September

The dollar is blowing into September with a full head of steam as traders brace for what could prove to be this year’s most pivotal economic data release: Friday’s August non-farm payrolls report. Two-year Treasury yields are edging higher, stock market futures are softening, and the greenback is climbing against most of its major counterparts, with rallies in the euro and pound showing clear signs of exhaustion. Today’s update from the Institute for Supply Management could move markets. The Institute’s manufacturing purchasing manager index is expected to show the factory sector remaining firmly in contractionary territory, with new orders continuing...

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