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JPY

30 Jul 2025

USD jolt

• USD strength. Positive USD data & a patient Fed has supported the USD. This has weighed on other currencies like the AUD & NZD.• AU CPI. Q2 inflation softer than predicted. This reinforced expectations looking for the RBA to cut rates in August & deliver more ‘relief’ later this year.• Seasonal trends. USD rebound & unfolding AUD weakness inline with seasonal patterns at this time of year. Risk of more to come. Global Trends A run of positive US centric events boosted US bond yields and the USD overnight. Firstly, the latest batch of US data extended the recent...

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29 Jul 2025

Currency Traders Turn Cautious As Event Risks Multiply

The US dollar is gaining as investors turn more cautious ahead of a raft of important economic data releases and central bank decisions through the remainder of the week. In a pattern familiar to aficionados of the ‘dollar smile’ theory, the greenback is climbing on continued outperformance in the US economy, a firming in rate expectations for the Federal Reserve, and a dimming growth outlook in other major economies. The Japanese yen and British pound are treading water against a resurgent Swiss franc, and the Canadian dollar is coming under sustained selling pressure ahead of tomorrow’s Bank of Canada decision,...

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28 Jul 2025

Dollar Climbs On Trade Deal With EU, Traders Brace For Havoc Ahead

The dollar is outperforming all of its major counterparts after the US reached a trade deal with the European Union, reducing uncertainties facing businesses and investors on both sides of the pond. Treasury yields are ticking higher, equity futures are pointing to modest gains at the open, and measures of implied volatility are pushing higher as traders brace for an intense and tumultuous week. The euro is trading lower as investors process what looks like a lopsided deal. According to President Trump, imports from the EU will be tariffed at 15 percent—except steel and aluminium, which will remain at 50...

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27 Jul 2025

Let’s make a deal

• Dealmaker. Trade optimism supported US equities & USD at end of last week. AUD & NZD drifted a little lower. EUR ticked higher this morning.• US/EU deal. Over weekend US/EU announced a 15% tariff framework. Deal is similar to US/Japan. More ‘stability’ but economic headwinds remain.• Event Radar. Q2 AU CPI due (Weds). In the US this week earnings season continues, Q2 GDP & non-farm payrolls are out, & US Fed meets. Global Trends There was some relative outperformance in US markets at the end of last week. In contrast to modest falls across European/Asian equities on Friday the...

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23 Jul 2025

Risk Appetite Improves On US-Japan Trade Deal

A modest improvement in risk appetite is washing across markets after a trade deal between the US and Japan proved less economically-damaging than feared. The dollar and Treasury yields are holding steady, North American stock indices are printing gains at the open, and risk-sensitive units like the Australian and New Zealand dollars are climbing against their peers. In a social media post last night, President Donald Trump announced a deal that would set tariffs at 15 percent on imports of most Japanese products into the United States—a threshold lower than the 25 percent previously threatened. Under what Trump called the...

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