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JPY

27 Apr 2023

BoJ & US data in focus

• Improved sentiment. Equities & bond yields higher overnight. The more upbeat risk appetite has supported the AUD in otherwise quiet FX markets.• US data flow. Topline US GDP growth undershot forecasts, but this was because of inventories. Price measures remain high. The ECI & PCE deflator due tonight. The US Fed still has more work to do to tame inflation.• BoJ in focus. Inflation & wage pressures in Japan are building. It appears inevitable the BoJ shifts course. Could the first steps be taken today? Sentiment improved overnight, with equities and bond yields higher. In the US, the S&P500...

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26 Apr 2023

AUD struggles

• Ongoing concerns. Banking issues remain in the US, while various indicators like the copper price point to a sharp slowdown in global growth.• AUD under pressure. Global backdrop compounded by softer Q1 Australian CPI. We expect the RBA to hold steady again at next week’s meeting.• US data in focus. US Q1 GDP released tonight, while the Employment Cost Index and PCE deflator are due tomorrow. Sentiment across markets continues to have a negative vibe. Banking sector concerns and growth worries remain front of mind. Outside of the US tech-focused NASDAQ, which was boosted by robust earnings from a...

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26 Apr 2023

Inflation breathing space for the RBA

On net, the Q1 Australian CPI underwhelmed expectations, with the data confirming that inflation, which is the rate of change in consumer prices, ‘peaked’ at the end of 2022. In terms of the numbers, headline inflation stepped down from 7.8%pa to 7.0%pa. While this was slightly less than what the consensus of economists was factoring in, it was below the RBA’s February 2023 projections (mkt 6.9%pa, RBA ~7.3%pa). At the same time, trimmed mean (the RBA’s preferred core inflation gauge) eased a bit more than anticipated, slowing from 6.9%pa to 6.6%pa (mkt and RBA ~6.7%pa). A closer look at the...

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25 Apr 2023

Growth & banking concerns return

• Negative vibes. Growth concerns and renewed banking sector worries weighed on risk sentiment. Equities, bond yields, and commodities lower.• AUD under pressure. The backdrop has supported the USD and JPY, and helped push AUD/USD down to within 1% of its 2023 low.• CPI in focus. Australia Q1 CPI released today. Annual inflation predicted to slow. This is the last major local release ahead of the 2 May RBA meeting. Risk sentiment soured overnight as growth concerns and renewed banking sector nerves weighed on investors’ minds. Banking stocks were dragged lower, firstly in Europe by some disappointing results, and then...

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24 Apr 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/JPY – change is on the horizon

AUD/JPY has perked up a bit over the past few weeks, with the ~4% rebound since late-March helping push the pair back into positive territory for the year-to-date. In our view, the bounce back in AUD/JPY is unlikely to extend much further, at least not on a sustainable basis, and we would look to use any spikes back into the low- to mid-90s opportunistically. We think the unfolding macro environment is likely to see AUD/JPY fall back down to the mid-80’s over the coming months, largely as a reflection of JPY strength which we believe is likely to come about...

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