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JPY

25 Apr 2023

Growth & banking concerns return

• Negative vibes. Growth concerns and renewed banking sector worries weighed on risk sentiment. Equities, bond yields, and commodities lower.• AUD under pressure. The backdrop has supported the USD and JPY, and helped push AUD/USD down to within 1% of its 2023 low.• CPI in focus. Australia Q1 CPI released today. Annual inflation predicted to slow. This is the last major local release ahead of the 2 May RBA meeting. Risk sentiment soured overnight as growth concerns and renewed banking sector nerves weighed on investors’ minds. Banking stocks were dragged lower, firstly in Europe by some disappointing results, and then...

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24 Apr 2023

Cross-Check: AUD/JPY – change is on the horizon

AUD/JPY has perked up a bit over the past few weeks, with the ~4% rebound since late-March helping push the pair back into positive territory for the year-to-date. In our view, the bounce back in AUD/JPY is unlikely to extend much further, at least not on a sustainable basis, and we would look to use any spikes back into the low- to mid-90s opportunistically. We think the unfolding macro environment is likely to see AUD/JPY fall back down to the mid-80’s over the coming months, largely as a reflection of JPY strength which we believe is likely to come about...

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23 Apr 2023

Service sector resilience

• Diverging trends. Business surveys show that manufacturing is slowing, but services are still strong. This suggests policy still isn’t tight enough.• BoJ surprise? This Friday’s BoJ meeting is the first for new Governor Ueda. Tweaks can’t be ruled out. A ‘surprise’ would ripple through FX markets.• AUD sluggish. Weaker global manufacturing momentum weighed on metals prices and the AUD. AU CPI inflation released on Wednesday. Risk sentiment improved on Friday. European and US equities posted some modest gains (S&P500 +0.1%, Eurostoxx50 +0.5%) and bond yields rebounded. The US 2-year bond yield rose ~8bps to 4.18%, and the 10-year ticked...

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20 Apr 2023

Growth concerns return

• Growth jitters. A run of weaker than expected data and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bankers has generated renewed growth worries.• Shaky sentiment. Negative growth signals dampened risk appetite. US equities, bond yields, oil, and metals prices a bit lower overnight.• AUD lifts. Despite the backdrop AUD lifted a little. We doubt the move can be sustained. Looking ahead, May tends to be a negative month for the AUD. Growth concerns are back in focus following a string of weaker than anticipated data, cautious tone about the outlook in some corporate earnings results, and ‘hawkish’ rhetoric from central bank officials....

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19 Apr 2023

Global inflation trends

• Hot UK CPI. Higher than expected UK CPI boosted bond yields overnight. Markets are now factoring in a few more BoE rate hikes this year.• NZ inflation slows. NZ CPI came in below expectations. NZD dipped and AUD/NZD moved higher as markets question the RBNZ rate outlook.• AUD holding. AUD hovering just above $0.67. RBA review to be released today. US Fed speakers are also on the calendar over the next 24hrs. The rebound in global bond yields has continued, with Europe leading the way. Another hotter than expected UK CPI print, the only major economic data of note...

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