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JPY

27 Oct 2023

Growing conviction in US “soft landing” supports risk appetite

Markets are trading with a mildly supportive tone this morning after yesterday’s third-quarter growth data showed US inflation pressures continuing to fade even as consumer spending remained robust – conditions closely resembling those the Federal Reserve has been working to engineer. After dropping almost ten basis points, ten-year Treasury yields are holding near 4.86 percent, and most major currencies are strengthening against an incrementally weaker dollar. Equity futures are gaining ahead of the North American open on solid earnings guidance from Amazon and Intel, and oil prices are higher after the US launched “precision self-defense” strikes against two Iran-linked facilities...

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26 Oct 2023

Push & pull forces

• Market vol. Equities lower as earnings disappoint. US yields reverse despite robust US GDP as inflation pressures ease. Oil lower in spite of Middle East tensions.• USD trends. Lower yields took some of the heat out of the USD. US economic strength boosted the USD recently. But was Q3 as good as it gets?• AUD pulse. AUD traded in a ~2% range this week. Q3 CPI supports the case for another RBA hike. Yield spreads shifting in favour of a higher AUD. Financial market gyrations are continuing, though overnight not all asset classes reacted uniformly. The slide in equities...

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24 Oct 2023

Australian inflation in focus

• Data trends. Divergence between the US & Europe weighed on EUR & GBP. The AUD held up against the firmer USD & outperformed on the crosses.• China stimulus. China will issue more debt to fund infrastructure projects. Supports our view that China’s economy has passed its cyclical bottom.• RBA & CPI. Gov. Bullock stressed the Board “will not hesitate” to lift rates again “if there is a material upward revision” to the inflation outlook. CPI released today. Following the bout of volatility induced by sharp swings in bond yields earlier this week markets calmed down overnight. Equities rose with...

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23 Oct 2023

Bond market volatility

• Bond gyrations. Large swings in US bond yields generated volatility across other asset markets. On net US yields fell & this dragged down the USD.• AU events. Ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 CPI data, new RBA Governor Bullock speaks tonight. Will Governor Bullock maintain the more ‘hawkish’ tone?• Global data. The latest batch of Eurozone, UK & US PMIs are due today. The PMIs will provide an update on the pulse of activity & price pressures. Another bout of bond market volatility cascaded through other asset classes overnight. There was little new news or data to rattle nerves or shift...

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23 Oct 2023

Flashbacks to 2007 haunt markets

Ten-year Treasury yields broke through the 5-percent threshold to a 16-year high earlier this morning, increasing strain on the global financial system and driving renewed demand for the dollar. Major equity indices are sliding ahead of the North American open, oil prices are retreating, copper prices are down sharply, and most major currencies are trading on the defensive relative to the greenback as some investors take out insurance against a re-run of the global financial crisis. Three factors appear to be shaping the move higher: Last week’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in which he appeared to suggest...

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