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GBP

24 Oct 2023

Treasury Bill jawboning triggers tumble

Global interest rate benchmarks and the US dollar are sharply lower after a remarkably-turbulent short-covering rally saw the ten-year Treasury yield fall from above 5 percent to 4.84 percent during yesterday’s session. We hesitate to ascribe price action to investors talking their books, but the move appeared to kick off when Pershing Square’s Bill Ackman said he’d unwound his bet against US government bonds, and gained steam on comments from “bond king” Bill Gross, who wrote that he had begun buying short-dated interest-rate futures to harness an expected downturn by year end. Equity futures are setting up for a stronger...

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23 Oct 2023

Bond market volatility

• Bond gyrations. Large swings in US bond yields generated volatility across other asset markets. On net US yields fell & this dragged down the USD.• AU events. Ahead of tomorrow’s Q3 CPI data, new RBA Governor Bullock speaks tonight. Will Governor Bullock maintain the more ‘hawkish’ tone?• Global data. The latest batch of Eurozone, UK & US PMIs are due today. The PMIs will provide an update on the pulse of activity & price pressures. Another bout of bond market volatility cascaded through other asset classes overnight. There was little new news or data to rattle nerves or shift...

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23 Oct 2023

Flashbacks to 2007 haunt markets

Ten-year Treasury yields broke through the 5-percent threshold to a 16-year high earlier this morning, increasing strain on the global financial system and driving renewed demand for the dollar. Major equity indices are sliding ahead of the North American open, oil prices are retreating, copper prices are down sharply, and most major currencies are trading on the defensive relative to the greenback as some investors take out insurance against a re-run of the global financial crisis. Three factors appear to be shaping the move higher: Last week’s comments from Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell, in which he appeared to suggest...

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22 Oct 2023

Macro trends vs geopolitical risks

• Negative vibes. Equities lost more ground on Friday. Bond yields also dipped, with oil, gold, & the USD consolidating. Middle East developments remain in focus.• AU CPI. Q3 inflation due Wednesday. Quarterly growth in core inflation looks set to step up. A lift could bolster expectations about another RBA rate hike.• Event radar. In addition to AU CPI, RBA Gov. Bullock speaks (Tues & Thurs). The BoC & ECB meet, & in the US Q3 GDP & the PCE deflator are due. Markets ended last week on a weaker footing with developments in the Middle East continuing to dampen...

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19 Oct 2023

US yields keep climbing, squeezing currency markets

A renewed surge in US yields is sucking the air out of global financial markets this morning, putting equities, commodities, and risk-sensitive currencies deep in the red. With yields on ten-year Treasuries flirting with the 5 percent threshold for the first time since before the global financial crisis and rate differentials tilted firmly in the dollar’s favour, the greenback is crushing its major rivals, pushing further into overbought territory. The Israel-Hamas conflict continues to pose a threat to markets, but safe-haven flows are generally subsiding as the perceived risk of a regional escalation falls. Momentum is fading in gold and...

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