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GBP

16 Jan 2024

Dollar Advances As Yields Climb

With ten-year Treasury yields poking above the 4 percent threshold once again, the dollar is the only outperformer on the currency league tables this morning. The greenback is trading near a one-month high, posting gains against all of its major counterparts as risk appetite turns more subdued ahead of a speech from formerly-hawkish Federal Reserve Governor Waller at 11:00. The British pound is roughly -0.7 percent weaker after wage growth slowed sharply, supporting bets on an early pivot to easing from the Bank of England. Regular pay growth excluding bonuses cooled to 6.6 percent year over year in the three...

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14 Jan 2024

Diverging economic fortunes

• US yields. Softer US producer prices supported views inflation pressures are receding. Expectations of multiple Fed cuts in 2024 remain. US 2yr yields fell.• Stable FX. Despite the drop in US yields the USD consolidated. AUD is hovering just under ~$0.67. The RBA outlook continues to diverge from its peers.• Event radar. Offshore the China data batch, US retail sales & comments by Fed/ECB officials will be in focus. Locally, the December jobs report is due. A quiet end to last week across FX markets with the major currencies range bound on Friday. The USD Index held its ground...

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12 Jan 2024

Markets Reset to Pre-Inflation Release Levels 

Yesterday’s inflation data failed to make a persuasive case for imminent rate cuts. Growth in both the headline and core consumer price measures declined more slowly than economists had hoped, and services ex-shelter inflation remained sticky, suggesting that the disinflation process could prove unexpectedly turbulent. But markets are back to betting on rapid monetary easing. After a brief post-release bump, ten-year yields are back below the 4 percent threshold, Fed fund futures are discounting five or more cuts by the end of 2024, and odds on a 25-basis point move at the central bank’s March meeting are holding near 70...

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11 Jan 2024

US CPI surprise

• US CPI. Data slightly higher than forecast. This triggered a bout of market volatility. After an initial jump in yields & the USD, & drop in equities, markets reversed.• Glass half full. US yields fell as some underlying inflation trends still support the outlook for eventual Fed policy easing, though a move in March looks too soon.• AUD vol. Further bouts of AUD volatility likely given where we are in the cycle. Since the float the AUD has, on average, traded in a ~13cent range each year. Markets endured a burst of volatility overnight in the wake of the...

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10 Jan 2024

Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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