Explore the world.

Assess underlying market conditions and fundamentals in the world's major economies.

World
Global
Americas
United States
Canada
Mexico
Europe
Euro Area
United Kingdom
Asia Pacific
China
Japan
Australia

Stay ahead.

Follow the biggest stories in markets and economics in real time.

Analysis
Blog
Views
Calendar

Subscribe

Get insight into the latest trends and developments in global currency markets with breaking news updates and research reports delivered right to your inbox.

After signing up, you will receive regular newsletters from Corpay, and may unsubscribe at any time. View Corpay’s Privacy Policy

GBP

22 Sep 2023

US exceptionalism trade regains momentum

A bruising week for global Wall Street continues this morning, with the dollar holding steady and major indices paring gains into the North American open. Ten-year Treasury yields are inching slightly lower after climbing to a 16-year high in yesterday’s session, paying more than 4.5 percent at one point. The moves came after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday issued forecasts showing rate cuts happening at a slower and more incremental pace than markets had previously anticipated, and after another weekly claims report beat expectations, suggesting that labour markets remain far from cooling. The number of initial applications for unemployment benefits fell...

Read More Read More
21 Sep 2023

Bond yields keep rising

• Negative sentiment. Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ forecasts have continued to wash through. Long-end bond yields rose again. Equities dipped. USD consolidated.• BoE surprise. Following the weaker UK CPI the BoE surprised by keeping rates on hold. GBP weakened with markets starting to price in a rates ‘peak’.• AUD softer. AUD slipped back over the past 24hrs. AUD/JPY has fallen by ~1%. The BoJ is today. Could it spring a ‘hawkish’ surprise? Risk markets have generally remained on the defensive with long-end bond yields continuing to push higher as the US Fed’s ‘higher for longer’ mantra continues to sink in....

Read More Read More
21 Sep 2023

Fed out-hawks markets – for now

The Federal Reserve turned remarkably optimistic yesterday. Growth forecasts were doubled for this year and raised by more than a third for 2024, projections for the unemployment rate were cut from 4.5 percent to 4.1 over the next two years, and core inflation was still seen falling below 3 percent within a year.  Markets turned more cautious. Odds on a rate hike at the end of this year inched higher and the number of cuts expected in 2024 dropped from four to three. Treasury yields jumped across most of the curve and equity indices tumbled, pushing the dollar higher against...

Read More Read More
20 Sep 2023

Fed ‘hawkish hold’

• Fed volatility. Fed delivered a ‘hawkish hold’. No policy change, but the projected 2024 easing cycle was pared back. US yields & USD rebounded.• Higher for longer. Markets already look to be factoring in a ‘higher for longer’ view. Interest rate pricing remains above the Fed’s updated dots.• AUD round trip. A bit of volatility, but on net the AUD is little changed. AUD has picked up against GBP ahead of tonight’s BoE meeting. Markets endured some volatility overnight with moves in the lead up to the US Fed meeting reversing after the fact. Heading into the announcement, US...

Read More Read More
20 Sep 2023

Compromising positions

Ahead of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve meeting, we note that speculators have sharply reduced short positions against the dollar in the last month, with the capitulation coming after a series of stronger-than-expected data releases widened expected performance gaps between the United States and the rest of the global economy. Friday’s numbers from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed the net dollar position on the verge of flipping into bullish territory, with long trades on the euro tumbling sharply relative to levels earlier in the year. The net non-commercial futures position on the dollar against the G10 currencies plus the Mexican...

Read More Read More

About

Contact

Data and information on this website is provided “as is” and for informational purposes only. Information on the website does not bind Corpay in any way; nor is it not intended as advice, a recommendation or an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial products. Data and other information are not warranted as to completeness or accuracy and are subject to change without notice. All charts or graphs are from publicly available sources, or our proprietary data. Nothing in this material should be construed as investment, financial, tax, legal, accounting, regulatory or other advice or as creating a fiduciary relationship. Corpay disclaims any responsibility or liability to the fullest extent permitted by applicable law, for any loss or damage arising from any reliance on our use of the data in any way. You should contact your Corpay sales representative for clarification on the range of financial instruments available in your jurisdiction. Copyright Cambridge Mercantile Corp. 2022.