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GBP

Waiting on the US CPI

• Mixed markets. US equities rebounded & bond yields ticked up. Oil prices dipped. In FX, there were generally limited net moves. AUD near $0.67.• AU inflation. Headline inflation decelerated more than expected. But things are still a long way from target. RBA to lag its peers when rate cuts come through.• US CPI. December inflation data released tonight. Headline inflation forecast to nudge up, but core CPI predicted to slow. The data can generate USD volatility. Ahead of the US CPI release markets put in a mixed performance overnight. On the one side, equities bounced back with a tech...

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Risk sentiment turns

• Market jitters. European/US equities gave back some ground, as did industrial metals. Global growth concerns also gave the USD a bit of a boost.• AUD underperforms. The global backdrop more than counteracted the positive Australia economic data. Black Friday helped retail sales exceed expectations.• AU inflation. The monthly CPI indicator is released today. Headline CPI is forecast to slow, but the RBA is more focused on core & services inflation. Risk sentiment soured a bit overnight. European and US equities gave back some of the gains from a day earlier (EuroStoxx50 -0.4% and US S&P500 -0.2%), US bond yields...

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Fed Pivot Hopes Stabilize, Leaving Currencies Unmoved

Equity markets are down ahead of the North American open after midair blowout on an Alaska Airlines flight hammered Boeing shares and lent new meaning to the term “window seat” – but risk appetite in other asset classes has been left largely unaffected. Fixed income and currency markets are relatively stable, with the dollar retreating only modestly from its early-year highs. Friday’s session was full of sound and fury, signifying nothing. Treasury yields and the dollar rallied when data was released showing US job creation and wage gains accelerating in December, but the move faded as traders parsed the details,...

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Santa gets stuck in chimney

Price action in financial markets turned erratic yesterday, with US equity bourses suffering some of the biggest reversals in months. The dollar gained on a flight to safety, Treasury yields crumpled, and risk-sensitive currencies sold off. We have no idea what triggered the move*, but it appears technical in nature: with the chimney narrowing (liquidity drying up ahead of the holidays) and Santa’s girth expanding (a range of asset classes looking overbought amid the euphoria surrounding the Federal Reserve’s pivot toward easing), some form of correction had become likely. A recovery is now underway, with stock futures rising into the...

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Santa Rally continues, bolstering risk-sensitive currencies

Markets are pushing higher this morning as investors continue to front-run rate cuts, largely ignoring the protestations of Federal Reserve officials themselves. Equity futures are pointing to a stronger open, Treasury yields are down, and the dollar is slipping against its major rivals even after the Atlanta’s Fed’s Raphael Bostic said “I’m thinking inflation is going to come down relatively slowly in the next six months, which means there’s not going to be urgency for us to pull off our restrictive stance”. Richmond’s Thomas Barkin told Yahoo Finance policymakers would “respond appropriately” to slowing price growth, but warned “I’ve got...

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