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GBP

08 Feb 2024

Central bankers continue to push back

• Mixed markets. Bond yields a bit higher as ECB & Fed officials continue to push back on near-term rate cut bets. USD firmer against JPY & AUD.• RBA speak. Governor Bullock testifies to parliament today. A repeat of this week’s rhetoric expected. This may give the AUD some intra-day support.• US CPI revisions. Revisions to seasonal factors for the US inflation data released tonight. This caused a stir across markets last year. Will it happen again? A mixed performance across asset classes in what was generally another quiet night when it comes to market news flow. Central bankers hit...

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07 Feb 2024

Steady as she goes

• Consolidation. US equities edged higher, bond yields ticked up slightly, but the USD and other major currencies remained range bound.• Fed speak. More Fed members spoke overnight. But reaction was limited. Market interest rates have adjusted with odds of a March cut whittled down.• AUD turn? AUD tracking below our fair-value estimate. A lot of bad news looks factored in. US inflation, US retail sales, & AU jobs due next week. Fairly subdued trade in most markets overnight. Given the lack of top tier data releases this is not a surprise. In contrast to European stocks which eased slightly...

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05 Feb 2024

Will the RBA stop the AUD’s slide?

• Fed repricing. Positive US services ISM & Fed rhetoric has seen markets continue to pare back rate cut bets. Rising US yields are supporting the USD.• RBA today. The decision & new forecasts are released at 2:30pm AEDT with Gov. Bullock holding a press conference from 3:30pm AEDT.• Push back? No policy change expected. Focus will be on the RBA’s guidance. Will it follow the BoE & US Fed by leaning against rate cut forecasts? The upswing in bond yields and the USD has continued at the start of the new week. A positive surprise in the US ISM...

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02 Feb 2024

Dollar Trades Heavy Into Non-Farm Payrolls

Treasury yields and the dollar are slipping, with this morning’s non-farm payrolls report expected to show the job market slowing in January – clearing the way for more easing talk from Federal Reserve officials. Brace for whiplash price action. Statistical and weather-related factors could trigger a dramatic miss in the headline number, with the range of analyst estimates looking unusually wide – from 150,000 to 290,000 – and Bloomberg pointing out that a negative print is within the realm of possibility. Benchmark and population revisions could meaningfully lower trend rates, even if the underlying job market remains relatively stable. Traders...

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01 Feb 2024

US jobs report on the radar

• Push-pull. US equities rose, bond yields dipped & the USD reversed course as markets focused on the looming easing cycle. AUD traded in a 1.1% range.• BoE holds. BoE mirrored the US Fed. Reference to further tightening was removed, but policymakers still not at the point to cut rates. GBP firmer.• US jobs. US labour market report in focus tonight. The data may generate another burst of FX volatility as it can influence US interest rate expectations. Another busy session overnight with participants also continuing to digest yesterday’s US Fed meeting. US equities bounced back (S&P500 +1.1%) with a...

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