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Currency Market Focus Turns Toward Fed Dot Plot

The greenback remains modestly stronger after yesterday’s data showed inflation running too hot for the Federal Reserve’s comfort. Equity investors – largely prepared for a repeat of January’s stronger-than-expected print – shrugged and kept bidding indices higher. But with core price growth topping expectations for a second month in a row, currency traders doubled down on bets interest rate differentials would remain tilted in the dollar’s favour, temporarily snapping a month-long slide in the DXY index. The “dot plot” presented after next week’s Fed meeting could prove more important than the decision itself. A material change seems unlikely, but remarkably-loose...

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Hotter US CPI taken in stride

• US CPI. US inflation slightly higher than expected. But markets were more prepared. Equities rose, & while bond yields ticked up, USD strength was minimal.• Details matter. Some of the US CPI strength likely to reverse. US Fed to remain cautious about rate cuts near-term, but that is already priced into markets.• AUD & JPY. AUD dipped a touch, & USD/JPY rose. Japan’s Rengo wage outcomes will impact BoJ expectations, USD/JPY & the broader USD. Market focus was on the latest US CPI inflation data overnight. US headline and core (i.e. ex food and energy) rose 0.4% in February...

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Markets Hunker Down Ahead of Inflation Release

The dollar’s selloff is slowing ahead of inflation numbers that could have a direct bearing on the policy outlook presented during next week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Equity futures are trending upward, but Treasury yields are holding flat, and high-beta currencies like the Canadian dollar are coming under modest selling pressure as traders cut risk. February’s consumer price index is expected to show headline prices accelerating while the core measure slows – but considerable uncertainty remains around whether January’s hotter-than-expected numbers marked the beginning of a trend. If price growth remains stubbornly high, officials could reduce the number of expected rate...

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Another US CPI jolt looming?

• Mixed markets. Equities eased a little while bond yields nudged up overnight. Currencies were well contained. AUD consolidated near ~$0.6610.• US CPI. US inflation data in focus tonight. Will the February US CPI data confirm or disprove the January reading as an anomaly?• Expectations matter. Analysts look to be factoring in a greater chance of an upside surprise. This suggests a bigger market reaction could be to a lower print. Markets have had a fairly subdued start to the new week with attention on tonight’s US CPI inflation data (11:30pm AEDT). Global sharemarkets have been mixed. The US S&P500...

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Soft Landing Bets Remain Dominant Ahead of Inflation Data

The trade-weighted dollar is coming under renewed selling pressure this morning after last week’s events helped fortify expectations for a “soft landing” in the US economy. On Thursday, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell told Congress that the Federal Reserve was “not far” from the level of confidence needed to cut rates. Friday’s jobs report showed headline job growth topping expectations, but revisions to the prior two months pointed to cooling momentum, and average hourly earnings saw their smallest month-on-month rise in two years. The pound and euro are defending last week’s advances in tight trading ranges. Sterling’s rally is losing...

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