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GBP

Yen Rollercoaster Accelerates

The Japanese yen is stabilising after an extraordinarily-turbulent session. With markets closed for the Golden Week holiday, the exchange rate briefly crashed through the 160-per-dollar threshold for the first time since 1990, and then reversed almost five big figures higher when rumours of central bank intervention hit the wires early this morning – generating a total intra-day move that was the widest since December 2022, and among the top 20 dollar-yen trading ranges in modern history. Official confirmation hasn’t yet been provided, and evidence of the traditional “rate checking” activity from the Bank of Japan is lacking thus far, but...

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US Fed & JPY trends in focus

• Upbeat tone. Equities rose while yields drifted back on Friday. The JPY’s slide continued. The shift in RBA pricing helped the AUD outperform last week.• Priced in? A ‘hawkish hold’ expected from the US Fed. Rates markets already look to be factoring that in. A lot of positives appear priced into the USD.• Event radar. Globally focus will be on the China PMIs (Tues), various US labour stats (including payrolls on Friday), & the US Fed meeting (Thurs). Risk sentiment ended last week on positive footing. European and US equities rose with the S&P500’s 1% lift on the back...

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Stagflation worries return

• Stagflation concerns. Slower US growth & sticky inflation rattled nerves. US yields rose. Equities slipped back. But on net the USD eased.• AUD rebound. The positive Q1 Australian CPI surprise & repricing in RBA rate expectations has underpinned the AUD over the past few days.• BoJ today. No changes expected, but upgrades to inflation forecasts could see the BoJ deliver a ‘hawkish’ message. JPY intervention risks still elevated. The Q1 US GDP report rattled a few market nerves overnight as “stagflation” concerns (i.e. slow growth and high inflation) returned. Bond yields rose with rates in the US rising by...

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Currencies Stabilise as Expected Growth Differentials Narrow

The dollar is holding steady and Treasuries are stable ahead of auctions that could see yields hold above the 5-percent threshold for the first time since November. The US will sell a record $69 billion in two-year notes later today, followed by $70 billion in five-year paper tomorrow, and another $44 billion in seven-year maturities on Thursday, testing investor demand for yields that could look attractive if the Federal Reserve eases aggressively in the latter half of the year – but might look too cheap if rate cuts are further delayed. The “term premium” – the extra compensation investors demand...

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Will the positive vibes last?

• Positive tone. Equities rose & bond yields slipped back. No new news was good news for markets. AUD edged higher & outperformed on the crosses.• Business PMIs. European & US PMIs released today. Leading indicators point to a pick up in global industrial activity over coming months.• AU CPI. Australian quarterly inflation due tomorrow. Signs the improvement in core inflation is stalling could push out RBA rate cut expectations. No news is good news with the limited new economic information and a simmering down of Middle East tensions supporting risk sentiment overnight. Equities rose with the US S&P500 (+0.9%)...

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